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Sometime in the 1870s, German Chancellor Bismarck awoke one night with a sweat. In a nightmare, he had foreseen the future: the inevitable collapse of his carefully-wowen diplomatic web to isolate France, owning to Russo-British rivalry, the isolation of the Empire owning to misguided naval competition with Britain and Austrian rivalries with Russia and Italy, the growing internal instability and decay of the useless Habsburg ally, the Empire starved by British blockade, invaded by French and Russian hordes, the monarchy collapsing in Socialist revolution...

It was horrible, and intolerable. He saw everything so clearly, what had escaped him so far. The diplomatic strategy he had followed up to that oment, might do in the short term, but was doomed to failure in the long term, when the fertile land of Prussia would have embraced him, and the inept sycophants that would surround some future Emperor would let his careful construction go to ruin. He would have to do better, build a alliance system that would be the strongest possible and absolutely able to ensure the success of the Reich in the general war that was coming, sooner or later.

But what to do ? In the coming days and weeks, several possible strategies dawned to his gaze:

-He could exercise his patronage to curb the rising influence of the naval lobby, ensure a navy is built of dimensions and type (mostly long-range cruisers, not battleships) which is not threatening to Britain, pick locations for German colonies that impinge on French but not British interests, and seek a commercial treaty with the British Empire. This ought to secure British friendship for the foreseeable future, and ensure the Italians stay true to their alliance. With Britain, Italy, and Austria-Hungary on Berlin's side, the Reich ought to cower Russia and France out of war, or win it in short order.

-He could solidify the alliance with Russia by supporting their claims on the Balkans. Let's face it, the Habsburg Empire and the Ottomans were bound to collapse sooner or later, it made no sense to exaust the strength of the Reich trying to breathe more life in those corpses. Better to abandon their alliance, and make an agreement with Russia and Italy to support their interests instead. In perspective, to make a pact for the eventual partition of the Habsburg and the Ottomans with those nations, in the contingency of a war or their internal collapse. With Russia and Italy allied to Germany, the Reich could cower any coalition of rival powers, be them Britain, France, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans, out of war, or win it in short order.

-He had been a fool to let the Habsburg get away with so little harm in 1866, even if killing them then would have probably too risky, with the Empire still half-formed, and France still strong. But no need for hesitation now. Austria-Hungary had always been the rope tying the hands of Prussia and Germany, and sentimental loyalty to it was foolish and misguided. Better to foster its breakup now, to cultivate relations with the Hungarian ruling elite and German Austrians, and to make an agreement for the partition of the Habsburg Empire with Russia, Italy, and Hungary. Then to let Russia or Italy pick some suitable casus belli with Vienna. Bringing Austrians and Bohemians in the Reich would regrettable strenghten those annoying Center politicos, in the Reichstag, but those rich and populous lands would greately strengthen the Empire, and the partition would secure the friendship of Russia and Italy for good. With an alliance to those two powers, and an Hungary suitably under their thumb, he could cower Britain and France out of any war, and dominate the continent.

Or maybe there might some other possibility...

What should Bismarck do ?
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