If Belgium had not been invaded in 1914....

Would the British Empire have entered the Great War anyway?

  • Yes, Belgium was not the real reason they went to war.

    Votes: 9 16.7%
  • Yes, but at a later stage.

    Votes: 13 24.1%
  • No, they would have stayed out.

    Votes: 10 18.5%
  • They possibly would have entered at a later stage ala. the USA.

    Votes: 15 27.8%
  • I do not have a scooby doo.

    Votes: 3 5.6%
  • The war would be over before they had a chance.

    Votes: 4 7.4%

  • Total voters
    54
Would Britian have entered the Great War that year?

Personally I say no, for reasons quoted in the what if Germany had not invaded thread. It seems many disagree with me.

What is your opinion and why?
 
Depends on the actions of Germany and France, primarily. I'd weight towards 'no': with Home Rule in effect, Ireland will be, how to put it, a bit more unrestive, and that would distract Britain a bit, and make a few more politicians less inclined to go to war with Germany right now. Given that the British government was disunited about going to war in OTL, when they had been handed a clear casus belli, and Ireland was not that unrestitive, I'd say that Britain could well stand aside for at least the first year, if Germany doesn't do something even more stupid then they did in OTL.
That is, assuming the situation in Europe isn't used to push the enforcement of Home Rule forward, as it was in OTL: but, given that Britain isn't in war yet, in that situation, that would be more unacceptable, and could in itself cause more unrest then OTL.

Now, one could remember that not entering that year, and not entering at all, are two different things: but, on the other hand, I'd also say that when just how bloody a modern war is, support for entering the war could drop a bit. Really, it depends on the actions of Germany and France: does France do something stupid? Does Germany hand Britain another clear casus belli soon afterwards? The course of the war itself could affect the answer, so I can't answer the poll.
 
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General Zod

Banned
They would have stayed out entirely. Without the invasion of Belgium, the anti-German faction lacks a casus belli to sell the war to the Parliament and the public. They would even lack a majority in the government itself. If they haven't entered the war in August 1914, the Irish Home Rule Bill would have gone into effect, and the unrest related to sectional strife in Ireland would have engrossed the attention and the energies of the country entirely.
 
The British are bound to enter since it would be political suicide not to. The central problem is one of geopolitics and choosing the lesser of two evils between the Central Powers and the Dual Entente with colonial possessions playing a major key.

The Dual Entente: If the British remain neutral they face two options:

Entente Victory: Russia and France crush the Central Powers and become resentful of Britain's neutrality. Russian and French territory border more territory than the Germans and so there is the possibility of prolonged colonial problems.

Entente Defeat: Russia and France crushed by the Central Powers and a vengeful France and Russia are angry at Britain's neutrality. Same problems regarding colonial possessions as listed above abound. Germany dominates the continent with the British being marginalized and unable to influence events in Europe. Continued naval arms race.

The Central Powers: If the British joins:

Central Powers Defeat: Similar to Entente Victory but: Britain at the peace table and able to influence terms. Russia and France kept happy and lesser possibility of flash points along colonial borders. End to naval arms race.

Central Powers Victory: Likely terms to be dictated to the British light because of their location. Overseas territorial gains by the Germans probably also light because of Britain's naval force. Overall damage control easy, but long term prospects bad.

There are a host of other things but I can't remember the book's title.
 
I dont understand- the situation was on a knife edge when Britain declared war...

No it wasn't. The British have been worried about the rise Germany since 1871. They are economic rivals by the late 19th century and beginning to make in roads into British overseas markets by 1910. The Moroccan Crisis and other events didn't contribute to any pro-German feelings by 1914.
 
No it wasn't. The British have been worried about the rise Germany since 1871. They are economic rivals by the late 19th century and beginning to make in roads into British overseas markets by 1910. The Moroccan Crisis and other events didn't contribute to any pro-German feelings by 1914.
Several members of the cabinet resigned over the decision to declare war. The issue was on a knife edge over whether or not Britain would go to war over Belgium or not, despite geopolitical issues. Had Belgium not been invaded, then the cabinet would have voted against war.
 
The decision to declare war, having considered this problem for ages, was based on fear of German control of the Channel Ports. A repeat war of 1870 fought in Alsace-Lorraine wouldn't have concerned Great Britain and they together with Italy (given her presumed neutrality) and perhaps the Ottoman Empire would have pushed for arbitration. Germany's initial aims didn't include obtaining any channel ports - she was interested in control of Austria-Hungary (or at least the economy) and the Netherlands economy but that was pretty much it - the east was the place to expand.

In the event arbitration failed/stammered, a neutral Britain would be able to at least provide some "advice" to Russia which might avoid a complete collapse with a solid cadre of mid-level of officers trained by British "observers".
 
Several members of the cabinet resigned over the decision to declare war. The issue was on a knife edge over whether or not Britain would go to war over Belgium or not, despite geopolitical issues. Had Belgium not been invaded, then the cabinet would have voted against war.

Lloyd George siding with those who resigned would have brought Asquith's government down. Now, it could be argued that Bonar Law would have been more inclined to get involved, but there would have had to be an election and we would be into mid September before a Tory government could be secure enough to make the decision...and who knows what would have happened on the cxontinent by then ?

Of course, if the HSF tried to enter the Channel and Churchill still gives the guarantee to France then we could have a whole new can of worms

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The British would almost certainly not have declared war when they did.
On the otherhand I struggle to really imagine them staying out entirely. The idea that the problems in Ireland would forbid an entry into a war which would apparently determine the fate of Europe and thus the world is just nonsense. Ireland, if worse came to the worse, could be kept down with a handful of divisions. A Germany who had decapitated France and evicerated Russia would be a unacceptable threat to British interests and potentially even a danger to Britain herself. A people who consider themselves the global hegemon will not take that quietly.

Assuming the French hold the line for 1914 (something I think which is fairly likely) the British will probably first push for arbitration and when that fails they shall enter the lists on the side of the Entente.
 
Assuming the French hold the line for 1914 (something I think which is fairly likely) the British will probably first push for arbitration and when that fails they shall enter the lists on the side of the Entente.

Hmmm

I can agree that if the Germans are reduced to trying to break through in Alsace-Lorraine the French may well be able to hold them this time

And that the British will push for the standing conference in London to be used as a peace forum

But I think British politics will affect what happens next

And thats a minefield of whatiffyness

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
But I think British politics will affect what happens next

And thats a minefield of whatiffyness

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

While I agree that British politics will effect what happens next, but I tend to think they shall have only little effect. I think other factors shall do more to determine events.

The British shall possibly get the powers to sit down. Even thats doubtful, but possible over the winter of 1914-15 if the Russians and Austrians have been thrown back in disarray meanwhile the German and French armies have solidied in the Trenches.

Germany shall view her early initial gains and make far greater demands than the French or Russians are willing or able to accept. German public oppinion will demand no less and German foreign relations are abysmal in this period so subtlety or comprimise seems hard to imagine. The French might be persuaded to hand over some portions of Africa and the Russians might just be persuaded to abandon some portions of Poland, although the Russians might well argue they have only been set back rather than invaded and thus demand simply a return to the status quo. If thats all Germany wanted then maybe a treaty could be arranged and I know some think that is all Germany initially wanted, but I remain unconvinced they would accept such especially when it appeared they were winning and even greater prizes beckoned.

Anyway peace talks will break down since neither side is willing to yeild. At that point it will be clear to the British, even if it wasn't already, that Germany, and A-H although they shall be largely in after-thought, is playing to win and was in all likelyhood going to do so. A Russia stripped of her European 'Empire', that is to say everything up to and including Ukraine, is no great power. France stripped of her empire or possibly chunks of her most industrial regions is no great power when Germany has twice the population and going on three times the industry. The choice will be clearer than it was six months before. The British can either stay out, and accept that German hegemony of Europe is the likely result, or intervene to stop it. I think the British shall intervene.
 
The Kaiser puts the Khybosh on Von Schliffen

The cabinet was split and the government may well have fallen delaying Britain's entry until Asquith, Lloyd George and Churchill could form a coalition with the Tories. By that time the Germans may have reached Paris. At least that is the Niall Fergusson scenario. The German invasion strengthened the war faction so that only a few ministers resigned; Morley and Burns anbd Burns is alledged to have privately thought we joined the wrong side. A pity the Germans didn't avoid Belgium, we would have been better off out of it
 
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