If Austria lost Hungary, would it have been balkanized?

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Susano

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That's probably true, but on the other hand, as the Magyars only form half the population of Hungary proper, let alone Croatia, they'll need someone to help them maintain dominance - and in this period Transylvania is still a separate unit.
I think the independent Hungary will try to change that, and i think they will have success. The problem with the Hungarian nationalists of the time seems to me that they didnt have a very firm grasp on realism and pragmatism, so that they need the German minority might not even enter in the equation.

But there's no Italy in 1848, and none of the Italian states have a fleet on the Adriatic.
Theres Sardinia-Piedmont, but, uh, yes, the lack of fleet... so, lets forget that, heh.

I guess what I'm saying is is that I'm not sure anyone in Austria will have any use for the Hapsburgs in this scenario.
I think they will. Even the majority of Gemran nationalists was after all not opposed to their local dynasties per se. Theres a reason the majority of the 48ers wanted constitutional monarchies and not full-out democratic republics. So I think the ideal result in the view of Austrian pan-germanists would be a Habsburg-led Austria inside a German Empire, which incidentally is also diplomatically easier to arrange - as said, everything else would require a war of conquest.


The Croatians were largely Hapsburg loyalist because they needed them to maintain their position vs Hungary. In this scenario the sole reason for their loyalty is removed. Likewise, the Hungarians were largely loyal to the Hapsburgs because they needed the empire to keep their hold over Croatia, not to mention their other minorities. Does a non-Hapsburg Hungary really have the power to hold all of their non-Magyar territory? I tend to think they can, in the case of the Slovaks and Rumanians, but Croatia, unlike the rest, is made up of and organized stand-alone political units.
Yes, consensus in this thread so far has been that Hungary wont be able to get Croatia. It has a nice defensible border, too, that being the River Drava. However, I think you are not quite right in stating that the Croatians were merely pragmatists. Sure, the prootection from the Hungarians ambition was the main origin of Croatian Habsburg loyalty, but that loyalty I think really existed and even beyond that, at least at that time. Besides, for all the factors speaking for them they still need troops against Hungary, and Habsburg has them, so the original reason for said loyalty might still be a factor.

Croatia as part of the German Empire seems both unlikely and undesirable from the German standpoint (Trieste and Pola are quite enough!), which is why I was thinking the kingdom would just become independent, probably with some Western monarch assigned as king.
That just seems unnecessary to me. There is just no reason to reduce the Habsburgs further. I gues sits possible its given to a cadet line, but I think personal union is a good way to end it up. From general German point of view that would mean not having to bother with it being a full member, while it is still bound to Germany and hence squarely in the German sphere of influence.

Actually I don't think the Ottomans would give a fig that Bukovina used to be part of Moldavia - only Moldavia & Wallachia would. The Ottomans would probably nervously eye it as a change to the status quo that could only cause them problems. I can see the powers demanding it be given to Moldavia as "compensation" (counterbalance to Russian acquisition of Galicia) - that happened quite often to the Ottoman vassals, albeit usually at the expense of the Ottomans - although the chunk of Bessarabia given to Moldavia after the Crimean War is an exception.
Hm, I see. And thats about the only comment I can make about that region of Europe, heh.

I guess, but what I was hinting at more was whether Austria, mor focused towards Germany now and desperate for influence, could actually take the lead of a united, or semi-united, Germany.

As was said here, if Austria demonstrabely couldnt hold on against Prussia IOTL even with Hungary, how can they stand up to it now that they even have lost Hungary? Besides, the German Union already exists, so Prussia already has teh advantage.
 
As was said here, if Austria demonstrabely couldnt hold on against Prussia IOTL even with Hungary, how can they stand up to it now that they even have lost Hungary? Besides, the German Union already exists, so Prussia already has teh advantage.
I agree, but lets twist about the dates a bit, and say that if Austria lost Hungary, could they accept domination of Germany in a *Frankfurt Parliament-like event? Theres a lot of handwavium going in here, but it could work with a bit of tinkering about. Maybe an earlier PoD? But that could upset the whole line of events...
 
I think they will. Even the majority of Gemran nationalists was after all not opposed to their local dynasties per se. Theres a reason the majority of the 48ers wanted constitutional monarchies and not full-out democratic republics. So I think the ideal result in the view of Austrian pan-germanists would be a Habsburg-led Austria inside a German Empire, which incidentally is also diplomatically easier to arrange - as said, everything else would require a war of conquest.

Which leave us with one final question: How could you ever get the Hapsburgs to accept subordination within Germany to an Emperor of a different dynasty? I don't think that could happen without violence.

And if it does involve violent incorporation, what does that mean for the dynasty? And if the dynasty goes, then what?
 
Which leave us with one final question: How could you ever get the Hapsburgs to accept subordination within Germany to an Emperor of a different dynasty? I don't think that could happen without violence.

And if it does involve violent incorporation, what does that mean for the dynasty? And if the dynasty goes, then what?

Maybe the current Habsburg ruler would abdicate for his heir?
 

Susano

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Which leave us with one final question: How could you ever get the Hapsburgs to accept subordination within Germany to an Emperor of a different dynasty? I don't think that could happen without violence.

And if it does involve violent incorporation, what does that mean for the dynasty? And if the dynasty goes, then what?

I just dont think a military incorporation is any feasible. Russia and France are watching the scene, after all. It wont of course be totally nonviolent, but it cant be a war, either. I think Germany will covertly sponsor tensions in Austria, so that the situation where the Habsburgs accept subordination is such an one that the alternative would be losing everything due to unrests by Czechs or Pan-Germanists or both... Of course, this doesnt necessarily succeed. An Austria lingering on as independent state and mockery of an Empire even though nobody really wants it anymore, most especially not the own population, only because France and Russia keep guard over it so to say... that would be morbidly funny in a way.

Jan: That just happened. In 1848 the mentally disabled Emperor Ferdinand ("The Emperor wants dumplings!") had abdicated, and Francis Joseph became Emperor, the same who would still see the outbreak of WW1. And having no children yet, he didnt even have heirs apparent... Hm. Thats another factor. Francis Joseph was an archconservative. It does seem unlikely he would accept subordination to the Hohenzollerns. OTOH, this also means he is unlikely to give in to any demands of the population for more rights (he didnt IOTL, after all), so this will "help" tensions... He might eventually step back for his more liked brother Ferdinand Maximilian. We know from OTL that Ferdinand Maximilian had little concerns about playing puppet monarch - he IOTL became Emperor Maximilian of Mexico as vasall of the French. So he might also accept becoming subordinate monarch of a federal member of the German Empire.

Heh, kinda funny if the OTL Emperor of Mexico becomes ITTL King of Austria and Bohemia inside the German Emperor (I assume the new title would be something like that)...
 
I just dont think a military incorporation is any feasible. Russia and France are watching the scene, after all. It wont of course be totally nonviolent, but it cant be a war, either. I think Germany will covertly sponsor tensions in Austria, so that the situation where the Habsburgs accept subordination is such an one that the alternative would be losing everything due to unrests by Czechs or Pan-Germanists or both... Of course, this doesnt necessarily succeed. An Austria lingering on as independent state and mockery of an Empire even though nobody really wants it anymore, most especially not the own population, only because France and Russia keep guard over it so to say... that would be morbidly funny in a way.

Jan: That just happened. In 1848 the mentally disabled Emperor Ferdinand ("The Emperor wants dumplings!") had abdicated, and Francis Joseph became Emperor, the same who would still see the outbreak of WW1. And having no children yet, he didnt even have heirs apparent... Hm. Thats another factor. Francis Joseph was an archconservative. It does seem unlikely he would accept subordination to the Hohenzollerns. OTOH, this also means he is unlikely to give in to any demands of the population for more rights (he didnt IOTL, after all), so this will "help" tensions... He might eventually step back for his more liked brother Ferdinand Maximilian. We know from OTL that Ferdinand Maximilian had little concerns about playing puppet monarch - he IOTL became Emperor Maximilian of Mexico as vasall of the French. So he might also accept becoming subordinate monarch of a federal member of the German Empire.

Heh, kinda funny if the OTL Emperor of Mexico becomes ITTL King of Austria and Bohemia inside the German Emperor (I assume the new title would be something like that)...

Europe let Prussia smash France and create the German Empire - surely there are scenarios where desperate Hapsburgs start a war they can't win - it has happened, you know... :p

It's hard actually to predict how things would go. The trauma of the loss of Hungary would radically change the outlook of the Hapsburgs and their subjects. Also, Franz-Joseph lived 86 years in OTL, not at all a certainly in an era of pandemic diseases and anarchist terrorists. Or even riding accidents.

I keep running into these types of problems. Nicholas II's brother George died of tuberculosis at the age of 28, so that's unlikely to happen with a POD before he contracted it - so I'm stuck with re-imagining Nicholas' reign with a BFF and much smarter brother. The more you research, the more complicated a TL gets!
 
Let me get this straight.

Hungary wants to secede.
Hungary's power structure is a tiny minority of head-in-the-sand nobles
Hungary will demand Croatia
Croatia will declare loyalty to Austria

What's the probability that Hungary tries this, gets invaded Austria (with Croatian troops), the Emperor executes as traitors most of the pig-headed nobility*, turns governance of Hungary over to a much broader base of people, and keeps Hungary in the Empire, after all?

*pigheaded being defined as refusal to accept the new regime in this case.

??
 
Hungary could succed if Russia doesn't intervene for example...

But if Hungary gets independency, Austria is still the leader of the German Confederation - and although the Frankfurt Parliament offered King Friedrich Wilhelm IV of Prussia in 1848 the Crown of a united Germany, he didn't take it. If, for example, the revolution was a bit more successful, and the Parliament offered the crown to Franz Joseph afterwards, Germany might even unite under Austrian leadership - since Hungary, the biggest obstacle for the so called "Großdeutsche Lösung" - Greater German Solution - would have been removed...
And concerning 1866 - the Austrians would have had very realistic chances to win the battle of Königgrätz if they had included breech-loading weapons in their military - which they were offered before the prussians, but didn't include on grounds that the soldiers would waste munition if they could fire that quickly.
 
:eek:
Haha.... I just now noticed that the last post dates back to 2010.... I should probably not look so much for interesting topics in the wiki^^
 

CalBear

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Zombie captured. Sent on 17:37 train to Coventry since 3/4 of the posters here are Banned.
 
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