Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
I mean Upper & Lower Austria, Salzburg, Styria, etc. vs. Bohemia & Moravia. B&M are as populous and economically powerful as the "German" section.
If Austria lost Hungary, would it have been balkanized?
- Thread starter Onyx
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I mean Upper & Lower Austria, Salzburg, Styria, etc. vs. Bohemia & Moravia. B&M are as populous and economically powerful as the "German" section.
I Blame Communism
Banned
I think this is the essential problem with this persistant "South German Confederation" lark. Prussia, with Ruhr, Saar, and Silesia, is going to exert the decisive economic pull on everybody except, of course, Austria, with its completely seperate protectionist system built around the Danube, Trieste, and the railways from Vienna to Bohemia and Moravia. Either Prussia is intact, in which case its economic domination is a problem with setting up any political barrier to it, or it's properly kneecapped, in which case we have another scenario altogether.
One small but interesting tidbit off the top of my head: every year, Austria-Hungary had to lock up a few conscripts for dilligently obeying orders - in Czech. The Germanophony of the army was one of the few things on which Vienna never budged, and the Czech political classes, though they didn't like it, knew why: as long as the army was German, the Hungarians couldn't use their regiments as yet another tool for Magyarisation.
Without that issue, Austria will face a rather ugly political problem if it ever creates a "Prussianised" (I take it we mean "conscript") army. All the regiments of Bohemia-Moravia, being geographically recruited, mixed Czech and German. Insistence on a German army would raise hell with the Czech movement, and questions about the reliability of Czech soldiers; but what's the alternative? Demanding the Germans speak Czech?
Absolutely.
This was about the last major European war in which not every combatant had some sort of general staff to speak from a position of actual proffesional expertise, accounting for the crazy overestimation of Austria.
I Blame Communism
Banned
But I remain dubious as to where a Czech state would come from. The Czech movement was never a violent one. The violent national movements of Galicia and Hungary were an alliance of nationalist nobles and nationalist students; the Czechs have German nobles and a German university.
So Hungary is gone. Who's going to go out and declare Czech independence? Which army is going to defend it against the Austrian one - which, before conscription, was the bastion of Hapsburg loyalism in which Hungarian hussars and Croat pandurs were fighting together against the Italians even in the messiest days of 1848? And who is going to make the trains run on time, when much of the educated population is still German?
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
I don't recall claiming anyone would be declaring Czech independence. Quite to the contrary, I never mentioned the word "Czech" at all.
The Hungarians will likely balkanize before the Austrians if they successfully break away. For a few reasons. Firstly the new hungarian state was strictly a Magyar state, so Romanians, Slovaks, Croatians, serbs, germans and anyone else will likely be excluded from government, in 1848 the hungarian revolters were mainly aristocrats so peasants will still feal no connection to the state, and there was not very good infrastructure.
The austrians even without hungary still are in the game. They were allied with the Russians at this time and if need be can call upon many troops from their allies. The Russians don't want a Polish state either so Galicia will likely remain Austrian. As has been already said Czech revolution was a non-starter.
The one problem will be the Italians.
It also matters how the Austrian reaction turns out. In OTL the habsburgs just accepted everything and did make liberal reforms. They basically stole the wind from the revolutionaries sails. This was successful, but with a successful hungarian revolution the Austrians might simply deny all reforms. That I think would lead to total revolution.
The austrians even without hungary still are in the game. They were allied with the Russians at this time and if need be can call upon many troops from their allies. The Russians don't want a Polish state either so Galicia will likely remain Austrian. As has been already said Czech revolution was a non-starter.
The one problem will be the Italians.
It also matters how the Austrian reaction turns out. In OTL the habsburgs just accepted everything and did make liberal reforms. They basically stole the wind from the revolutionaries sails. This was successful, but with a successful hungarian revolution the Austrians might simply deny all reforms. That I think would lead to total revolution.
Wait... a fully independent Hungarian Kingdom? Correct me if Im wrong, but werent there a crapload of Slavs, Romanians and Germans in it even without Croatia? I doubt it would be a stable state at all.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
It's not too bad - these number are from 1910, but they're probably not too much different earlier:
Magyar 49.1%
Germans 10.0%
Slovaks 8.8%
Rumanian 24.8%
Serbians 2.2%
Croats 0.8%
Ukraininans 2.1%
Catholic Serbs 0.4%
Slovenes 0.3%
Bulgarians 0.1%
Poles 0.1%
Others 1.2%
The biggest problem is the huge Rumanian population. As the Germans and Magyars have a pre-existing position, combined they can probably control the kingdom. Long-term, the Rumanian problem will probably be an issue.
I Blame Communism
Banned
Oh, I'm sorry to have misunderstood you and jumped to conclusions, but I'd assumed that if you were defining B&M against "German" Austria that would imply that the Bohemia you doubt Austria can keep is not itself "German".
So who do you think Austria will loose Bohemia too, if not a Czech state?
I Blame Communism
Banned
What?
The government abolished serfdom and freed peasants from feudal obligations, and the rotten finances and administrative aparatus were cleaned up, but while important these reforms were hardly "liberal". The 1848 attempt at constitutionalism - essentially a measure to buy time as the state fell back on the peasants and the army - was disavowed, and Austria was set up as a highly centralised, very restrictive, Germanising neo-absolutist state. Censorship and political persecution only got more energetic.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
A Bohemian state. If we're talking about 1848, the dynamics are quite a bit different than by 1914. Why would Bohemia wish to enter the German Empire as a province of Austria when it can enter as a full member?
I don't know how such a think would fall out, but I had looked at the composition of a combined Bohemia/Moravia/Silesia and it came out:
Chech: 62.5%
German: 35.0%
Polish: 2.4%
Other: 0.2%
The proportions for both Bohemia and Moravia are similar.
Bohemia was a historically integral and quite important part of the HRE... and it has historical, economic, an geographic logic and continuity.
Susano
Banned
Hrm. After 1918 the German population in Transylvania and the Banat was quite happy to be annexed by Romania, as they hadnt fared well under Ausgleich Hungary. One can assume that in this scenario the Hungarians will pull the same political nonsense, and hence the Germans wont be pleased in this scenario, either. OTOH, theyre dispersed all over the realm with no real strongholds, while the Romanians have no outside state of their nation to support them. I agree that overall the situation should be manageable for Hungary.
Politics. How would such a thing come about, that both (core) Austria and Bohemia enter the German Empire as seperate member states? I would rather think that Berlin would sweeten the deal for the Habsburgs by keeping the two sides together.
Another question in this scenario is Italy. Lombardo-Venetia is probably fully lost, but will Italy go further? Istria, Littoral, Tyrol, Dalmatia?
Just wondering what would happen if Austria itself were to experience a revolution in this TL-particularly if the Hapsburgs respond to the loss of Hungary by becoming ultra-authoritarian and reactionary. (Say a coalition of Liberal Germans, Radical Germans, Poles, Ukrainians, and Czechs overthrows the Hapsburgs, then start fighting among themselves)
I can imagine the German Union invading and crushing the revolutionaries, then splitting Austria up into its crownlands, each of which is put under a Prussian (or other non-Hapsburg) prince.
Galicia and Croatia would be problematic though-I can imagine the German Union letting Russia take Galicia in return for letting the GU acquire German Austria and Bohemia. The Hungarians would probably grab Croatia, though I can see a united Italian state (if one exists) taking Dalmatia.
Susano
Banned
Oh no, if Prussia did that, violating the rights of the native monarchs so blatantly the other Union states would be (literally even, probably) up in arms. However, yes, an Union intervention is an obvious way to get Austria+Bohemia inside it. But as said, it seems hence logical to me that Vienan will try to avoid it, and give out so far unprecedented amounts of rights to the population...
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
But this is 1848, isn't it? I would think the Germans wouldn't have the same grievances that they had in 1918. I do think that Hungary in the long-term will have problems with the Rumanians - the Principalities are already by 1848 on their trajectory towards independent nationhood, and there are way too many of them in Hungary in a fairly compact block.
If you look at the map (without Lombardy-Venetia, and pretend B-H isn't there):
This is just not sustainable. Dalmatia will almost certainly join Croatia, and I'd have a hard time even guessing what would happen to Galicia. Perhaps it would become independent and eventually absorbed by Russia as a quid pro quo for accepting German absorption of Hapsburg German territories.
As for the rest, Isn't that way too large a unit for the Prussians to want it that way in the German Empire? Or would this mean a totally different German Empire? And I still think it's a question whether anyone internally will think there's any point to this Austrian state.
On the other hand, a mega-Germany including it, as a unit or in parts, would give the Russians and French conniptions. In short, I don't know. I guess you're right, it could go any number of ways.
Which leaves Bukovina. What happens to it? Staple it to Galicia, or does Moldavia get it back? That seems logical, except that Ottoman suzerainty isn't quite yet the dead-letter it will be in a few years, and I'm not sure anyone will agree to return them any territory, even if it's only de jure.
Well, the Hapsburgs would be exiled in this scenario, so I figured everyone would treat Hapsburg Austria as already dead and not try to revive it...
On reflection though, I do see how my scenario could be taken as a blatant landgrab, so how about this: In exchange for a GU intervention to restore them, the Hapsburgs agree to keep only the Archduchy of Austria and Styria, and cede the rest to various German princes (they're exiled monarchs who are begging a foreign power to re-take their country for them, so I think this is plausible). Also, Prussia agrees to have none of Austria's successor provinces go under a Hohenzolleran, so the Prussians don't get any direct benefit out of the deal. Of course, Austria is still entering the GU, and as a collection of smaller provinces that won't threaten Prussia's domination of it.
Susano
Banned
But I think theyll get them pretty quickly, because as said I dont think Hungary will behave any different to how it behaved IOTL inside A-H.
But what forces do the Croats have? Italy has the Piedmontese forces, and probably more as soon as Central Italy joins (which in this scenario might well happen already now). If the Italians simply land forces in Dalmatia, can the Croatians stop them? Especially given the Hungarian threat in their flank? And does after all that chaos Austria still have enough forces to stop the Italians should they go for Tyrol and Istria/Littoral?
This German Union (which eventually will probably be named Gemran Empire for obvious propagandistic reasons) will indeed be much like the OTL German Empire, united and led by Prussia. However, what else can the Prussians do? The Habsburgs already will have to accept submission under them inside Germany and consequently also the loss of their Imperial title. And probably lose Galicia now, too. They can be pushed only so far, I think, and I dont think Prussia would want an outright war of conquest. Especially not with the other Great Powers watching.
As for them, bribing off Russia with Galicia seems indeed like a prudent diplomatic move. Croatia OTOH... that depends on what the Hungarians and Italians might try and wether they have success. The Croatians themselves are very much Habsburg loyalist. A souvereign kingdom in personal union with a member kingdom of the German Empire would be a weird construction, but a Croatia inside the German Empire would be even weirder, and that would make the Habsburg parts of it even larger...
Yes, I dont think any power outside the Ottomans will care much that the Bukovina used to be Moldovian less than 100 years ago. And while Russia doesnt need such a small spot of land, if the intent is to bribe the Tsar then giving that land to an Ottoman vasall might be counter-productive.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
That's probably true, but on the other hand, as the Magyars only form half the population of Hungary proper, let alone Croatia, they'll need someone to help them maintain dominance - and in this period Transylvania is still a separate unit.
But there's no Italy in 1848, and none of the Italian states have a fleet on the Adriatic.
I guess what I'm saying is is that I'm not sure anyone in Austria will have any use for the Hapsburgs in this scenario.
The Croatians were largely Hapsburg loyalist because they needed them to maintain their position vs Hungary. In this scenario the sole reason for their loyalty is removed. Likewise, the Hungarians were largely loyal to the Hapsburgs because they needed the empire to keep their hold over Croatia, not to mention their other minorities. Does a non-Hapsburg Hungary really have the power to hold all of their non-Magyar territory? I tend to think they can, in the case of the Slovaks and Rumanians, but Croatia, unlike the rest, is made up of and organized stand-alone political units.
Croatia as part of the German Empire seems both unlikely and undesirable from the German standpoint (Trieste and Pola are quite enough!), which is why I was thinking the kingdom would just become independent, probably with some Western monarch assigned as king.
Although in 1848 it was actually not unified yet - it's still Croatia, and Slavonia, and there was still that weird military frontier thing. I guess since legally they are part of the Crown of St. Stephen, they'd go to Hungary, and probably be a big problem until they eventually achieve independence. I would imagine violent revolt would begin immediately upon the separation of Hungary from Austria.
Actually I don't think the Ottomans would give a fig that Bukovina used to be part of Moldavia - only Moldavia & Wallachia would. The Ottomans would probably nervously eye it as a change to the status quo that could only cause them problems. I can see the powers demanding it be given to Moldavia as "compensation" (counterbalance to Russian acquisition of Galicia) - that happened quite often to the Ottoman vassals, albeit usually at the expense of the Ottomans - although the chunk of Bessarabia given to Moldavia after the Crimean War is an exception.
Interesting thing happened in Croatia 1848. Jelačić - whome the Croatian Parliament gave almost absolute power, as he held all the highest positions in the Croatian provinces - proclaimed the union of Croatian provinces (Croatia-Slavonia and Dalmatia), and the separation from the Kingdom of Hungary.
Afterwards he invaded Hungary with the Croatian forces under his command.
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It sounded pretty liberal to me when I was reading about the habsburg response. Reforming the peasantry was one of the goals of the Liberal revolutionaries, and the Austrians would subvert that by freeing them quickly and arming them.
I was trying to suggest that if the Habsburgs felt under existential threat, they might not grant any reforms at all. Also I am unsure about Russia's ability to make demands, but it would be interesting if the Habsburgs followed the Russian tsarist course.
-also I never said that Austrian acquiescence to liberal demands was little more than a tactic. What if the Austrians only relied on the military, it seems to me like the revolution would grow.
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I guess, but what I was hinting at more was whether Austria, mor focused towards Germany now and desperate for influence, could actually take the lead of a united, or semi-united, Germany.
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