If Austria lost Hungary, would it have been balkanized?

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Onyx

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Say that in 1848, the Hungarians win the Revolution, I cant really know how (Not good with Austrian/Hungarian history) but to say that they won and Austria is basically left with its former territories.

Would Austria be slowly balkanized by the Czechs, Galicians, Croats, Poles, because it lost one of its major territories or could've it ride out by keeping them and survive without Hungary (Which the Austrian Empire looks honestly weird without the Hungarians...)
 
Austria would still be strong enough to hold itself together. They may even come out stronger than in our timeline. With less nationalities to suppress they'd be able to spend more capital on increasing it's influence outside of its borders, specifically with the smaller German states to the north.

The end result may be a much later German unification.
 
Well, Hungary is going to want Croatia. Galacia will be awkward to hold onto, so they might be lost. The North Italians might also pull out in an early Unification War. Austria would probably hold onto Bohemia. And ultimately it'd be good for Austria's inclusion in a Greater Germany.
 

Deleted member 1487

I've been thinking about this scenario and I feel that Austria can hold its half together. There will be the tendency for the minorities of the Hungarian side to cleave to Vienna, as they did historically. At this point nationalism is still underdeveloped and the various nationalities besides, the Italians, wanted to stay in the empire. Even the Hungarians initially were trying to stay in the empire until they were told that they couldn't have their independence within the Empire. Had the empire broken up, it would be in two parts and the Hungarians would have to find a way to appease their minorities or be done in by internal strife.

The Galicians would stay with the Habsburgs unless the Russians invaded and took it. Once the division happens, the Austrians are going to likely focus on building their influence in the German states, perhaps creating an enduring South German confederation able to block the Prussians.
 
Well, Hungary is going to want Croatia. Galacia will be awkward to hold onto, so they might be lost. The North Italians might also pull out in an early Unification War. Austria would probably hold onto Bohemia. And ultimately it'd be good for Austria's inclusion in a Greater Germany.

Austria was too powerful to be included into Germany as it was formed in our timeline. Prussia wanted to dominate the nation and a large Catholic state was a threat to that. Yes, Bavaria was Catholic and included into the empire but there weren't enough of them to make Protestants anything but an overwhelming majority.

You're right about Bohemia staying under Austrian control. It just fits.
 
Say that in 1848, the Hungarians win the Revolution, I cant really know how (Not good with Austrian/Hungarian history)

In my view (which is by no means the only one), the Hungarians never had a fair chance of it. The Croats were keeping their hands full, the Serbs and Romanians were a nuisance, and they had no real infrastructure backing them up; they lasted as long as they did because the Austrian army proper was largely in Italy.

Taking that interpretation, Hungarian independence requires foreign involvement. With a PoD a bit earlier to adjust how things unfold in France, France or Britain could get entangled on the side of the Italians (they were both pretty close, at times, in OTL), and the Austrians end up with too much on their plates.

It's not easy, in my opinion, but let's leave that and carry on with the hypothetical. I'm going to assume that Hungarian victory necessarilly implies Italian victory.

Would Austria be slowly balkanized by the Czechs, Galicians, Croats, Poles, because it lost one of its major territories or could've it ride out by keeping them and survive without Hungary (Which the Austrian Empire looks honestly weird without the Hungarians...)

To go quickly down the list...

The Czechsweren't ready to try for a state yet, because they had yet to populate Bohemia and Moravia's cities. The mass rural-urban migration of industrialisation was certainly underweigh, but many cities remained German dominated in population and political terms. The Czech intelligentsia were still in the process of moving from a literary to a political sphere. The Czech movement had support, and demands, alright, but there simply weren't enough Czech-speaking, Czech-feeling lower-middle-class types to build a state out of.

Croats would be angling for more autonomy and unity for their provinces - Jelacic was a patriot, in his way, and the Croats were very bitter about getting as reward what the Magyars had for punishment under neo-absolutism. Could a beaten Austria adopt the same strategy? Unlikely. The loss of Lombardy brought about the end of neo-absolutism OTL. So a move towards Croat autonomy - but Magyar irredentism, however unreasonable, is a strong incentive to stick by Vienna.

("Unreasonable" - I feel I should make clear that any Hungarian attempt to press claims on rump-Austria, though not impossible, would mean a neat Austrian victory unless Hungary was merely the agent of some much more powerfuul country.)

Galicia was already, after 1846 and the Slaughter, coming to be dominated intellectually by the alliance of "Stanczyks" and "Podolians", Polish nobles and intellectuals who ridiculed the idea of armed revolt and advocated cultural and political development in Galicia. Bizarre as it may look, Galicia would want to remain under Hapsburg rule, the only alternative being Russia. But that would probably mean a very autonomous Galicia (and Galicia got pretty damn autonomous by the 1870s IOTL), and the more autonomous it gets, the nearer you get where the Russians decide it's Poland in disguise and invade the place.

...Which would have very interesting consequences for the Ukrainians, whom I assume you mean by the "Galicians". Their (tiny) literate class of mid-ranking Greek Catholic clergy and defiantly unPolonised landowners were hypnotised by the appeal of Russian culture at the time, whereas the masses were illiterate. Modern Ukrainian nationalism basically happened when the emerging Ukrainian middle classes of 1880s Galicia started reading the works of exiled "Little Russians" and evangelising them to the masses through Prosvita, and their increasing influence on the Greek Catholic church. What would happen if the Russians were right there - persecuting those exiled poets, promoting Russophilia, and ruthlessly championing the Moscow Patriarchate - is an interesting subject all to itself, but off topic. The simple answer to the actual question is that the Ukrainians didn't yet have enough "national existence" to really matter.

My conclusion: yes, Austria-Bohemia-Croatia can hold together, for want of anything better, but it's easier if Galicia is swallowed by Russia to simplify that issue.

Austria would still be strong enough to hold itself together. They may even come out stronger than in our timeline. With less nationalities to suppress they'd be able to spend more capital on increasing it's influence outside of its borders, specifically with the smaller German states to the north.

The end result may be a much later German unification.

What "capital" did Austria spend in repressing the nationalities? Austria actually more-or-less stopped actively persecuting anybody on national rather than political grounds after the end of neo-absolutism. The Hungarians, of course, enthusiastically restarted it after Ausgleich, but by the very terms of the question Transylvania and Slovakia are well out of it.

Austria was too powerful to be included into Germany as it was formed in our timeline. Prussia wanted to dominate the nation and a large Catholic state was a threat to that.

Dubious, in my opinion. "Prussia" - that is, a particular section of Prussian opinion that was in and out of favour at differant times, but such is always the way - wanted to dominate north of the Main. In the 1850s, this was usually thought to mean getting command of the Confederal forts and forces there, not political control over other states, Catholic or otherwise. Most advocates of this policy were suspicious of German nationalism at the time.

Yes, Bavaria was Catholic and included into the empire but there weren't enough of them to make Protestants anything but an overwhelming majority.

In any case, it's wrong to assume that our Germany - a fairly tight federation ledd by a massive Prussia - is the only possible one. Changing 1848 completely changes the game for the following decades. Prussia, for all we know, could get flattened at some point, and leave the leadership of a loosely united Germany to rump-Austria.
 
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Susano

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Without Hungary Austria will have weird appendixes in Galicia and Croatia, but will now foremostly be a German power. With Austria more involved part of the German power play, things might go very differently indeed... maybe Austria holds together as member state of a German Empire/Federation? ;)
 
Without Hungary Austria will have weird appendixes in Galicia and Croatia, but will now foremostly be a German power. With Austria more involved part of the German power play, things might go very differently indeed... maybe Austria holds together as member state of a German Empire/Federation? ;)

It probably would. Without Hungary there's really no point to not becoming integral to Germany. The Hapsburgs won't want to take a subsidiary role in a Prussian-dominated Germany, but they would probably have no choice.
 

Deleted member 1487

It probably would. Without Hungary there's really no point to not becoming integral to Germany. The Hapsburgs won't want to take a subsidiary role in a Prussian-dominated Germany, but they would probably have no choice.

Why would there be a Germany pre se? Of course without Hungary and Italy Austria would turn to the German states as her last major area of influence, dragging along her remaining empire, which would have some interesting autonomy (Galicia, Croatia). Bavaria and the catholic states to the south would turn to Austria for protection and may, in the aftermath of losing Italy and Hungary in battle, 'prussian-ize' their military. A south German confederation with marriage linking the Bavarians and Austrians (Franz Joseph not getting a choice in bride, instead being forced to marry Helene), linking the Wittelsbachs and Habsburgs in the face of Prussian aggression. Perhaps a north and south Germany emerge, the Catholic and Protestants, with the Habsburgs enhanced by an empire they could control.
 
Why would there be a Germany pre se? Of course without Hungary and Italy Austria would turn to the German states as her last major area of influence, dragging along her remaining empire, which would have some interesting autonomy (Galicia, Croatia). Bavaria and the catholic states to the south would turn to Austria for protection and may, in the aftermath of losing Italy and Hungary in battle, 'prussian-ize' their military. A south German confederation with marriage linking the Bavarians and Austrians (Franz Joseph not getting a choice in bride, instead being forced to marry Helene), linking the Wittelsbachs and Habsburgs in the face of Prussian aggression. Perhaps a north and south Germany emerge, the Catholic and Protestants, with the Habsburgs enhanced by an empire they could control.

I think by this point nobody is going to be interested in a divided Germany. Why should the S. German states be any more interested in Hapsburg hegemony, and do you think that the Germans of Austria are going to see any point to loyalty to the dynasty over German unity? If the full Austro-Hungarian empire was no match for Prussia in OTL, why would half of it be better? Or really, a third of it, since Galicia and Bohemia are looking pretty exposed here.
 
I think by this point nobody is going to be interested in a divided Germany. Why should the S. German states be any more interested in Hapsburg hegemony, and do you think that the Germans of Austria are going to see any point to loyalty to the dynasty over German unity? If the full Austro-Hungarian empire was no match for Prussia in OTL, why would half of it be better? Or really, a third of it, since Galicia and Bohemia are looking pretty exposed here.

While I can't address the first section, the Austro-Prussian war was a damned close thing in the end. Everyone, including quite a few Prussians, expected Austria to come out on top ... they very nearly did.

In a situation where there's an independent Hungary (presumably having snatched Slovakia and Transylvania, but not Croatia), a stronger Italy and a much larger border (also, more difficult to defend), Austria would have no choice but to push for a much stronger army and heavily defend Bohemia, one of their few remaining heartlands. Also, lower population, which means the army would have to adapt.

As for Germany ending up divided, didn't Prussia leave the Confederation before it declared war on Austria at the start of the war? If Austria manages to not lose, they could simply deny Prussia re-admission into the German Confederation, essentially leaving the majority of Germany in the Hapsburg sphere of influence. If Austria manages to win, I don't see things being pretty for Prussia, at all.

After all, snatching Silesia was an Austrian plan for a long time by then.

Of course, I'm working purely from memory here, so I may be wrong. Most of my books are a couple of hundred of kilometers away.
 
I think the main point in Austria loosing Hungary would be that they cease to be a great power. But they could preserve their influence through the German confederation, of which they lost domination as well. Prussia is clearly the major power now, and instead of German dualism I think some sort of "states-right" movement led by Austria against Prussia trying to dominate the north would emerge.

In this scenario, an Austro-Prussian war would be quite different. Whereas Austria is a lot smaller, it still holds the most valuable provinces. By the loss of its great-power status, it will probably develop new alliances and better diplomatic relations, in particular to the remaining smaller German states. I'd say if Prussia looses this war, it will loose the (largely catholic) Rhineland and Westphalia, maybe Silesia, whereas the majority of the remaining German states unite under an Austrian emperor. If Prussia wins the war, it will establish aNorthern German confederation as IOTL, and the Austrians will answer that with a South-German confederation, which is more balanced among its members and probably more liberal altogether, as south German states were more liberal IOTL and Austria will likely become more liberal as well after loosing many of the "backward" regions and many unrestive minorities - as stated before, the Poles should be quite happy within a liberal Austria instead of being subjects of Russia or Prussia.
 

Susano

Banned
Why would there be a Germany pre se?
Point of Order: There would be "a Germany" regardless of whatever. But I take your meaning of "politically united Germany" ;)

Of course without Hungary and Italy Austria would turn to the German states as her last major area of influence, dragging along her remaining empire, which would have some interesting autonomy (Galicia, Croatia). Bavaria and the catholic states to the south would turn to Austria for protection and may, in the aftermath of losing Italy and Hungary in battle, 'prussian-ize' their military. A south German confederation with marriage linking the Bavarians and Austrians (Franz Joseph not getting a choice in bride, instead being forced to marry Helene), linking the Wittelsbachs and Habsburgs in the face of Prussian aggression. Perhaps a north and south Germany emerge, the Catholic and Protestants, with the Habsburgs enhanced by an empire they could control.
Oh I can see it now:
Baden: "Fuck that, Im outta here" (Baden and Bavaria were rather hostile, and Baden even voluntarily applied to join the Prussian dominance set up of the NGC in 1869)
Württemberg: "Argh, dont ruin my economy with your diplomatic nonsense, Bavaria!" (The South German states fared pretty well with the Zollverein)
Bavaria: "Let us ensure independence from Prussian dominance!"*happily spends away all money on fairy tale castles*
Austria: "Yes, let us - hey, get out of my face, Czechs!" (I think theyll have enough problems on their own)

And the catholic-protestant divide at the time is always such heavily overexaggerated on AH.com. Most German states after Vienna had both protestant and catholic populations, after all. And Württemberg was in majority protestant, so that neat north/south-protestant/catholic divide doesnt work, anyways.

And "prussia-style reforms" as reaction to 1848 doesnt work because Prussia itself only had them in the 1850s...

Anyways, gah, I forgot something very important:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erfurt_Union
Austria is in no position anymore to demand anything from Prussia, and I dont know if Russia alone would do anything. So with Austria knocked out we might see a Prussian-led German unification in the 1850s already anyways.

While I can't address the first section, the Austro-Prussian war was a damned close thing in the end. Everyone, including quite a few Prussians, expected Austria to come out on top ... they very nearly did.
Oh nonsense. Yes, everybody did expect the Austrians to win, but thats a different thing than a close outcome. The Prussians won nearly all battles from the start with a ridicolous ease. Which is aptly shown by the fact that a war between two Great Powers, plus allies, only took some months to conclude. It was nearly a curbstomp.
 
Well, depending on the order of things, might a dejected Austria accept the offer to become part of a united Germany seeing as it had lost most of its not German areas, which was the main stickler of the deal IOTL? I dont think any of this 'South German Confederation' stuff is viable, but an Austria radically turned from protecting its Transleithanian posessions to one desperately seeking new influence could end up leading a Frankfurt Parliament-esque Germany. With or without Prussia, probably without.
 

Susano

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Well, depending on the order of things, might a dejected Austria accept the offer to become part of a united Germany seeing as it had lost most of its not German areas, which was the main stickler of the deal IOTL? I dont think any of this 'South German Confederation' stuff is viable, but an Austria radically turned from protecting its Transleithanian posessions to one desperately seeking new influence could end up leading a Frankfurt Parliament-esque Germany. With or without Prussia, probably without.

Well lets see. After this 1848, the German Confederation is dead, replaced mostly but not fully by Prussias "Geman Union" seated for now at Erfurt. Austria, Bavaria and Württemberg are not yet members. Austria has definitly fallen from grace, and from great power status, but is still double as big as any other German state besides Prussia.

So what I think well see is diplomacy. Prussia will probabkly use teh carrot and stick approach vis a vis Bavaria and Württemberg: Either they can join the German Union under extensive special rights, or theyre kicked out of the Zollverein. At least, that will be the threat. In the end I think both will grudgingly join the Union with considerable autonomy.

Austria however is too big. There is no amount of special rights that could bait it, and it isnt even in the Zollverein to begin with. However, lets remembe rhow the Gemran Union came to pass: Prussia intervened everywhere to supress the 1848 unrests, so every state government was dependant on Prussia. And now lets also remember that rump Austria might be very instable, ethnicities-wise... so I think Austrias policy will be dominated by the aim to not give Prussia any pretext for intervention.

This is difficult, though, with Bohemia. If Austria doesnt give the Czechs enough recognition, it pisses them off, if they give them too much recognition it pisses the Bohemia Germans off, and if they try to seperate Czech and German regions in Bohemia it again pisses the Czechs off. IOTL, this was solved with some half-arsed measures because it wasnt exactly a pressing concern. Here, it is.

Could go both ways in the end, I think...
 
While I can't address the first section, the Austro-Prussian war was a damned close thing in the end. Everyone, including quite a few Prussians, expected Austria to come out on top ... they very nearly did.

In a situation where there's an independent Hungary (presumably having snatched Slovakia and Transylvania, but not Croatia), a stronger Italy and a much larger border (also, more difficult to defend), Austria would have no choice but to push for a much stronger army and heavily defend Bohemia, one of their few remaining heartlands. Also, lower population, which means the army would have to adapt.

As for Germany ending up divided, didn't Prussia leave the Confederation before it declared war on Austria at the start of the war? If Austria manages to not lose, they could simply deny Prussia re-admission into the German Confederation, essentially leaving the majority of Germany in the Hapsburg sphere of influence. If Austria manages to win, I don't see things being pretty for Prussia, at all.

After all, snatching Silesia was an Austrian plan for a long time by then.

Of course, I'm working purely from memory here, so I may be wrong. Most of my books are a couple of hundred of kilometers away.

The Austro-Prussian war was not a close thing. It's true that a lot of people expected Austria to win, but most importantly, the Prussians did not, nor did the countries allied to Prussia.

I think you're making a lot of assumptions. First of all, I don't think it follows at all that Austria would heavily militarize in this scenario - I don't really see there being a lot of support for this. Second, I don't think it's very likely that with the loss of Hungary that there is any realistic chance of holding onto Galicia, nor really much of holding onto Bohemia/Moravia, certainly not with any central control.

Finally, the disintegration of the Hapsburg empire would cause immense military/administrative, political, and economic turmoil in Austria, as well as demoralization that will preclude any aggressive German policy for the time being. If anything, the disintegration of the Austrian empire will greatly accelerate German unification, as it will cease to be a significant counterweight to Prussia.

Presuming the Hapsburgs survive in Austria, their future is as a component of a German state.
 
This is difficult, though, with Bohemia. If Austria doesnt give the Czechs enough recognition, it pisses them off, if they give them too much recognition it pisses the Bohemia Germans off, and if they try to seperate Czech and German regions in Bohemia it again pisses the Czechs off. IOTL, this was solved with some half-arsed measures because it wasnt exactly a pressing concern. Here, it is.

Could go both ways in the end, I think...

I don't think it could go both ways. Without Hungary, Bohemia/Moravia/Silesia are no longer outweighed in any way by the heavily German parts of the Hapsburg domains. There's no question of Vienna calling the shots, and I don't think the Austrian Germans are going to see any point to remaining outside a larger German context. Without Hungary, there's just no point to Austria (in the larger sense of Austria). Even in OTL with the A-H Empire extant there was a lot of pull toward Germany for Hapsburg Germans.
 
I don't think it could go both ways. Without Hungary, Bohemia/Moravia/Silesia are no longer outweighed in any way by the heavily German parts of the Hapsburg domains. .


How do you mean?

Hungary was certainly not heavily German. Take it away, and the lesser Austria is more German, not less.
 
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