If Austria-Hungary rejects Russian soundings over war with Ottomans in 1876

raharris1973

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In OTL before the Russo-Turkish war of the 1870s I believe the Russians sounded out the continental great powers about their plans to "reluctantly" intervene in Turkey. Austria-Hungary (and Germany) communicated back they were OK with a Russian war on the Ottomans and limited Russian gains and Austria-Hungary wanted its influence over Bosnia-Hercegovina as compensation.

What if the Austro-Hungarians instead reacted by saying they were not interested in compensation, they were interested in avoiding a large war and major border changes next door - even grave troubles between the Sultan and his subjects did not amount to a justification for war or conquest in the Balkans?

How upset is Russia with Austria?

They might be quite upset, or they might think that they would be isolated in a war so having one is not a good idea. Some have characterized their involvement in the war with the Turks as "reluctant" and if it truly was, quiet discouragement from Austria-Hungary (especially if seconded by Germany) might be enough to put paid to the whole idea.

Or Russia might be pissed about Austrian opposition.

And if so, would Russia ignore Austria and fight the Ottomans anyway?

Or, would Russia be so upset that it comes to think it must fight the Austrians even before the Ottomans, to break their opposition?

What does Vienna risk by "just saying no"?
 

raharris1973

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Oh darn, for a second I thought you said 1737 and I was curious what people would come up with.

Well, post that one yourself. Are you seeing that leading to Austrian retention of Serbia and little Wallachia?

In any case, what is so uninteresting about 1876, I'm curious about answers to my OP.
 

raharris1973

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I'm going to say that Austria-Hungary could have deterred Russia from acting, and perhaps almost as importantly, could have deterred Serbia and Montenegro from acting.

Russia will keep busy trying to reform itself. Maybe it would even build a Black Sea fleet (which they forgot to do in time for OTL's war). Assuming Alexander II still gets whacked in 1881, Alexander III had a reputation for being very cautious and reluctant to go to war.

Maybe the Ottomans are free of a great power invasion clear until the 1890s and Nicholas II's coronation?
 
I doubt that Austria could have prevented Russia from acting all by itself. Maybe if Britain backed up Austria but by the 1870s Russia was clearly a stronger power than Austria. In OTL the support of Austria was mostly needed for diplomatic coverage vis-a-vis the Russian violation of the 1856 Paris treaty. Without Austrian support it's unclear how much territory Russia could take for itself and instead it may push the claims of it's allies Bulgaria and Serbia.

As to how angry Russia would be with a refusal of Austria support, I think that Russia would be annoyed but not surprised. When Russia had come to Austria's aid in 1848 to quell the Hungarian uprising, the Austria foreign minister Prince Felix made the announcement that Austria would 'shock the world by the depth of its ingratitude' towards Russia. This ingratitude was borne out in the Crimean war and if the Austrians also refuse to support the Russo-Turkish war then this Austria may well build a permanently hostile image for itself in the eyes of the Russians.

What I find most interesting about this scenario is the ripple effects through the European system especially what Bismarck is going to do about German foreign policy. His plan for stability in Europe was to guarentee alliances with 2 out of 3 continental European powers to prevent a entire continental backlash against Germany. Because the German Empire was built on French defeat the only 2 powers willing OTL were Austria and Russia. If there is a continued split between Russia and Austria then I can't see how the Three Emperors' League survives and it may push Germany to choose between Russia and Austria and pick up an Italian ally earlier than OTL. If Germany chooses Russia then Austria may find itself surrounded by 4 hostile powers. (Italy, Russia, Germany and Ottomans) If Germany chooses Austria, then the WWI alliances start to shape up a few decades earlier as Russia following the balance of power mentality would seek accomodation with France.
 
I doubt that Austria could have prevented Russia from acting all by itself. Maybe if Britain backed up Austria but by the 1870s Russia was clearly a stronger power than Austria. In OTL the support of Austria was mostly needed for diplomatic coverage vis-a-vis the Russian violation of the 1856 Paris treaty. Without Austrian support it's unclear how much territory Russia could take for itself and instead it may push the claims of it's allies Bulgaria and Serbia.

As to how angry Russia would be with a refusal of Austria support, I think that Russia would be annoyed but not surprised. When Russia had come to Austria's aid in 1848 to quell the Hungarian uprising, the Austria foreign minister Prince Felix made the announcement that Austria would 'shock the world by the depth of its ingratitude' towards Russia. This ingratitude was borne out in the Crimean war and if the Austrians also refuse to support the Russo-Turkish war then this Austria may well build a permanently hostile image for itself in the eyes of the Russians.

What I find most interesting about this scenario is the ripple effects through the European system especially what Bismarck is going to do about German foreign policy. His plan for stability in Europe was to guarentee alliances with 2 out of 3 continental European powers to prevent a entire continental backlash against Germany. Because the German Empire was built on French defeat the only 2 powers willing OTL were Austria and Russia. If there is a continued split between Russia and Austria then I can't see how the Three Emperors' League survives and it may push Germany to choose between Russia and Austria and pick up an Italian ally earlier than OTL. If Germany chooses Russia then Austria may find itself surrounded by 4 hostile powers. (Italy, Russia, Germany and Ottomans) If Germany chooses Austria, then the WWI alliances start to shape up a few decades earlier as Russia following the balance of power mentality would seek accomodation with France.

Russia has to get its troops through the narrow corridor of Romania to get to the Ottomans (the Caucasus is not practical due to severe infrastructure difficulties). If Austria defended the Romanian corridor, there is no way for the Russians to succeed in the war. Even in OTL, lack of good infrastructure and underestimation of the Ottomans gave the Ottomans a great chance to force an economic backing-down of Russia. Unfortunately for them the able War Minister had been assassinated and replaced with a senile old man. Still, the excellent Ottoman performance at Plevna and other places caused British public opinion to switch around in sympathy for the "gallant Turk".
 
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raharris1973

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Russia may be the stronger power than Austria, but the Russians will have to be thinking that Austrian objections signal a potential coalition, possibly consisting of Britain and two continental allies (the Ottomans and Austrians). Last time that happened the war did not go well. Granted, Austria-Hungary is no France, but it is closer to Russia than France was.

If Germany chooses Russia then Austria may find itself surrounded by 4 hostile powers. (Italy, Russia, Germany and Ottomans)

While many paths can lead to this outcome, not *every* path needs to lead to Bismarck choosing Russia at Austria's expense.

Also, with the Austro-Hungarians stating their objections, privately or publicly, to the powers great and small, Bismarck may just decide the best way to a avoid a European crisis is to join the whispering campaign.

Basically, Bismarck could well decide that the approach he needs to take towards a prospective Russo-Ottoman war is, "hey Russia, we love ya lots, but don't do this."

How much risk is there in this for Germany?

Probably not much - it is the Russians who are being tempted into changing the map of Europe, while the Austrian goal is much more modest, it just wants the status quo.

The only way this does not work to deter the Russians then the only explanation is that Russia at this time had an irresistible compulsion to attack Turkey.

And it only makes sense for Vienna (and Berlin) to be afraid to discourage Russia if they are convinced Russia is so compelled, and if they have a compulsion to allow Turkey to be cut down in size.

Was that the reality of late 19th century politics on the eastern question?
 

raharris1973

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(the Caucasus is not practical due to severe infrastructure difficulties).

While I agree with most of your post, sending armies into the Caucasus to attack and seize territory from the Turks *was* practical because that is exactly what the Russians did.

Of course yes, the Caucasus is not a practical route to Constantinople, and advancing there does little for the Bulgarians or Serbs.
 
While I agree with most of your post, sending armies into the Caucasus to attack and seize territory from the Turks *was* practical because that is exactly what the Russians did.

Of course yes, the Caucasus is not a practical route to Constantinople, and advancing there does little for the Bulgarians or Serbs.

Well yes but I was speaking in terms of the 1877-78 war. Farting around in the Caucasus does little for Russian war aims.
 
If Austria defended the Romanian corridor, there is no way for the Russians to succeed in the war.

You're right of course, under the assumption that Austria actually obstructs a Russian attack on behalf of the Turks. I was presuming that the Austrians wouldn't actually intervene in a war but would diplomatically object.

While many paths can lead to this outcome, not *every* path needs to lead to Bismarck choosing Russia at Austria's expense.

Yeah, I took one particular outcome a bit far without explanation.
 
You're right of course, under the assumption that Austria actually obstructs a Russian attack on behalf of the Turks. I was presuming that the Austrians wouldn't actually intervene in a war but would diplomatically object.

Could they persuade Rumania to refuse passage to the Russian army?

If Russia tried to force her way through, that might involve Germany, since the Prince of Rumania was a Hohenzollern.
 

raharris1973

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Could they persuade Rumania to refuse passage to the Russian army?

Vienna could argue the plus side for Romania is the Russians don't have permission to transit, and annex, southern Bessarabia.

However, the downside for Bucharest is they can't claim Dobruja as a spoil of war, and the situation makes them dependent on the Austrians.
 
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