In OTL before the Russo-Turkish war of the 1870s I believe the Russians sounded out the continental great powers about their plans to "reluctantly" intervene in Turkey. Austria-Hungary (and Germany) communicated back they were OK with a Russian war on the Ottomans and limited Russian gains and Austria-Hungary wanted its influence over Bosnia-Hercegovina as compensation.
What if the Austro-Hungarians instead reacted by saying they were not interested in compensation, they were interested in avoiding a large war and major border changes next door - even grave troubles between the Sultan and his subjects did not amount to a justification for war or conquest in the Balkans?
How upset is Russia with Austria?
They might be quite upset, or they might think that they would be isolated in a war so having one is not a good idea. Some have characterized their involvement in the war with the Turks as "reluctant" and if it truly was, quiet discouragement from Austria-Hungary (especially if seconded by Germany) might be enough to put paid to the whole idea.
Or Russia might be pissed about Austrian opposition.
And if so, would Russia ignore Austria and fight the Ottomans anyway?
Or, would Russia be so upset that it comes to think it must fight the Austrians even before the Ottomans, to break their opposition?
What does Vienna risk by "just saying no"?
What if the Austro-Hungarians instead reacted by saying they were not interested in compensation, they were interested in avoiding a large war and major border changes next door - even grave troubles between the Sultan and his subjects did not amount to a justification for war or conquest in the Balkans?
How upset is Russia with Austria?
They might be quite upset, or they might think that they would be isolated in a war so having one is not a good idea. Some have characterized their involvement in the war with the Turks as "reluctant" and if it truly was, quiet discouragement from Austria-Hungary (especially if seconded by Germany) might be enough to put paid to the whole idea.
Or Russia might be pissed about Austrian opposition.
And if so, would Russia ignore Austria and fight the Ottomans anyway?
Or, would Russia be so upset that it comes to think it must fight the Austrians even before the Ottomans, to break their opposition?
What does Vienna risk by "just saying no"?