If Austria-Hungary (and Germany) intervene vs Russia in 1878, what will France do?

raharris1973

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What if Austria-Hungary mobilizes and declares war on Russia to force Russia to back down from the Treaty of San Stefano?*

If Germany feels compelled to support Austria-Hungary (because it can't let Austria-Hungary collapse) with the support of arms or the threat of arms, what does France do?

Does France quickly and unhesitatingly move to support Russia to gain an ally?


The Britain factor:
Also note that Britain, if anything, will be even *more* supportive of Austria-Hungary than Germany will be. That's a complicating factor for France. I would think that the British would fight on the Austro-Hungarian side against Russia, or at the very least, take all measures short of war to help A-H. While down the line, if the result is an Ottoman-Habsburg-Hohenzollern beat down of Russia, Britain may well come to find that situation distressing for balance of power reasons. But, I think it would take more than a few months for Britain to back away from its anti-Russian orientation.

*if you wish, we could consider an alternate PoD, where the Austro-Hungarians intervene earlier in the Russo-Turkish war, perhaps while the Turks are still fighting hard at Plevna. I chose post San Stefano as the initial PoD however because that's when Russia's behavior really started to try the patience of other European powers the most.
 
I think you're missing the Russia factor.

Russia wasn't wholely insane, though they sure pushed their luck hard. They know most everyone else is annoyed at San Stefano, which is why it was reversed to such a massive extent without war. The Austrians have to somehow keep Russia pinned in a state of unreasonableness to make this more than a minor scuffle before the Great Powers assemble in conference and hash out a compromise.

Not sure how, but I suppose an appeal that hurts Russian prestige enough might work. If backing down is turned somehow into a mortal threat to the Czar's prestige, it might make Russia actually fight against Germany-Austria/Hungary-Britain.
 

raharris1973

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but I suppose an appeal that hurts Russian prestige enough might work. If backing down is turned somehow into a mortal threat to the Czar's prestige, it might make Russia actually fight against Germany-Austria/Hungary-Britain.

I think it could happen, and the aims of the anti-Russian coalition could range anywhere from the extreme of a Russia Delenda Est, to the more probable short, sharp campaign to get the Russians to agree to the Congress of Berlin terms. I think Bismarck would be the most anxious to ensure this fight is on the short side, without drastic terms.

Regardless- what's France gonna do?
 
You'd have to get Bismarck dismissed. Because right now he is the Foreign Ministry and he is working hard to maintain the Three Emperor's Lsague.
 
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