If Austria fights on.

I whole heartedly agree with the sentiments, the two World Wars were a disaster for civilization.

That said, given the rise of South Slav nationalism, Austrias need to challenge it or die, and Russia's need to be the defender of the Slavs, the two powers are unavoidably trapped on the path of collision.

Given that Austria needs an ally against Russia.

France ?, recently defeated by Prussia, in a war, of a Franco Austrian alliance against a Prusso Russian alliance, Austria is going to get easily taken apart, before France can offer any support.

Yes, but if Austria is fearful of Germany, it's alliance structure will be different as it looks north rather than south as its main concern. This would dictate France as an ally, and then possibly the Ottomans too.

But as you say, Austria now has to face a Russian-encouraged south Slav nationalism without Germany to protect herself. The obvious outside-the-box strategy here is to try to defuse the nationalism by
giving concessions, in a similar way it did to Hungary. A triple monarchy perhaps? A United States of Austria? This could lead to a better world all round.
 
Yes but - there was no Hungarian state already in existence outside of the Austrian empire in 1867. The concessions the South Slavs cannot avoid demanding is union with Serbia, or independence. Given Russias growing role as champion of the Slavs, Hungary had a real reason to be part of a Dual Monarchy. Conflict between Hungary and Romania was inevitable, Hungary couldn't give up Transylvania. And Russia was bound to to defend Romanian territorial integrity. Hungary's survival, as a weak power occupying lands that were viewed as a natural part of, States that were bound be assisted by Russia, meant Hungary could not survive unless it was part of the Dual Monarchy. That in turn meant Hungary could count on German support in the Balkans.

Austrias fear once it was excluded from Germany was the South Slavs and consequently Russia.
An alliance with France would have been hopeless in a war where Austria was fighting Germany and Russia.
The nationalities of Austria, German, Slav, Romanian and Hungarian would have devoured the Empire.
France could not assist Austria unless its Armies made or/fought their way through Italy. Austria would have been devoured along time before the French - in the unlikely event - turned up. And Italy very likely would have attacked Austria - as it indeed did in WW1. Austria was surrounded.

The more i think about it the more i realise what a charlatan Bismarck was, after all it was he who signed the Dual Alliance with Austria, so alienating Russia into the arms of France, he did this while promulgating the view that Germany must not end up fighting France and Russia at the same time.


Whilst Austria existed outside of Germany, as a multinational empire containing large swathes of Slav lands, but also as a brother of Germany in the consciousness of Germans, Germany was bound to have to defend Austria against Russia. Russia didn't threaten German interests in the Balkans. German interests lay in stability, it's tradegy as the worlds most scientifically developed nation, was that it was dragged into fighting the world to save the life of a relic of Metternichs Europe. Napoleon should have done away with Austria, what a deep and awful tradegy that 2 World Wars should stem from this, the ruination of Europe for a state that belonged in the dustbin of history.

If the Austrian Germans - thanks to the much over rated Bismarck - had never been excluded from Germany, the Austrian Empire may have ceased to be. Russia and Germany would have had no quarrel. Theres the Turkish question, but this was Germanys only route once it was forced into conflict with one its few natural allies - Russia.

Russia was all through the late 19C keen for an alliance with Prussia against Austria. But it was tragically as it turned out, inconcievable that germany could fight Austria in the world of growing nationalism.



For all the successes and brilliance of Napoleon Bonaparte, he left surviving in the corners of Europe an archaic and ancient state, that would upon his defeat tirelessly reengage Europe back into the dynastic squabbles and wars that had plagued Europe for centuries. Ultimately leading to two worlds wars, that massacred the youth of European manhood, that either bankrupted or destroyed the major powers of Europe - Britain, Germany, France, Russia, Italy. That gave an insane psycopathic party of mass murders the rheins of power in Germany, and left Russia, Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe buried under dictatorship for decades. And for this i charge a certain over rated and opportunistic diplomat, who ran from event to event, without knowledge of the wider world outside Prussia. Who may never even have been on a boat. And without plan or thought of consequence, riding on the clamour for a united Germany, ultimately carried off and finalised the division of Germany, with a certainty that none before had accomplished. Finally making it look like he had been an indispensable part of it all. Bismarck and Metternich were very similar, both were experts at deceit, but shone in no other way. Bismarcks chief concern was the survival of the Prussian Royal line. In the case of Metternich, the survival of the Habsburgs. Both were conservative reactions to the so very nearly victorious Napoleonic Europe. Both Prussia and Austria, and their ruling houses had been lucky to survive, and Metternich and Bismarck knew it.
 
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