If Amiens falls in 1918 during Operation Michael...

...is it enough to change the course of the war or just cause severe headache for the Allies?
 
Could very well change it.

If Amiens goes, the BEF's supply system is crippled. Even in quiet periods this required about 140 trains per day, and for strategic operations this requirement rose to 212. If Amiens were lost, Haig's staff estimated that the best which could be managed was 90 per day.

During the Michael offensive, plans were drawn up for the loss of Amiens. The entire BEF was to be withdrawn south of the Somme, with 85% of its supplies having to be destroyed in place. IOW, even if the plan could be carried out (it was drawn up very late in the day) the BEF would have to be re-equipped virtually from scratch. While this was going on the French Army would be essentially fighting alone. So unless the AEF can enter the line a lot sooner than OTL, the French would be lucky to survive.

See Ch 4 of T Zabecki - The German 1918 Offensives. It's pretty much the definitive work on this subject.
 
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I think it would change the course of the war.

I imagine that a decent chunk of the BEF would be cut off, surrounded and evacuated by sea which would be a serious setback particularly if the uboats of the Flanders Flotilla get a few sinkings. This would mean the BEF loses all of the carefully built up artillery etc for these troops which would need to be replaced before these troops could be redeployed.

It would put Britain herself within range of the Paris gun and Langer Max and likely cause the crucial through-channel shipping to cease or being severely restricted, which might cause London to be partially evacuated. Eventually the Germans would bring Dunkirk, Calais and Boulougne into service as uboat bases and step up the effectiveness of the uboat campaign.

The Allied offensives that ended the war would either not occur or start from so far back that they would be difficult to sustain into German territory.
 
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