Yes, but I want him to survive until 1900 in my scenario.He'd have been in his mid-70's by then, so you can't rule out him dying of natural causes around or before then regardless. In any case, this was a situation in which Leopold II was talking about sending his Congolese private security force to invade Armenia. Honestly, that strikes me as only possible in an atmosphere where everybody has resigned themselves to not doing anything but talk tough.
What are the other Great Powers' thoughts on a Russian intervention going to be?In 1894 he would be already 76 years old so he might still die naturally before that or some next of his assassination attempts is succesful (quiet possible due terrible sicurity system and AII not giving much matter on his own security). But even if AII lives to mid-1890's he hardly is going take new match if then not be sure that can win and he get some real benefit about war.