Idle Thoughts about an Argentine-Chilean war in 1901

Here is some raw data pertaining a possible scenario for war between Chile and Argentina between 1899 and 1902.

Besides the well known Beagle Crisis, which almost resulted in an all-out war in December of 1978, the closest Argentina and Chile were to war over their long history of border disputes was between 1898 and 1892, at the height of tensions which had resulted in a decade-long arms race between the two countries throughout the 1890s as well as several war scares. The main impediment to the war, other than the unwillingness to blow up millions of dollars in equipment in the midst of a recession was Argentine President Julio Argentino Roca (1880-1886 and 1898-1904), who was adamant in his resolve to avoid a war, lest it be bad for business, whereas the Chileans were unwilling to go to war given the chances of Bolivia and Peru joining Argentina to get revenge for the 1879 war. Bolivia and Peru ganging up on Chile was also a distinct possibility in 1978.

Now, with that in mind, some data:

-Chile had the problem of a possible three-way war against Argentina, Bolivia and Peru; not as likely as in 1978, but a distinct possibility nevertheless. At the same time, it'd take a lot to have Brazil do the same and declare war on Argentina, especially just after the fall of the Empire and the subsequent revolutions of the 1890s;

-Chile had a long naval tradition that went as far back as the 1810s, not to mention that the War of the Pacific was only 20 years before; Argentina, on the other hand, has never invested that much in a navy before the 1880s;

-Both Chile and Argentina were modernizing their armies; the first through a process of Prussianization thanks to German officers, the later with British officers, IIRC; I'd think that the Chilean army has the edge here, although the Argentine army was allegedly "modern and sophisticated" at the turn of the century;

A few numbers on the ships:

In 1898, in Metric tons

-Cruisers:
-Argentina..........11.510 tons
-Chile..................19.660 tons
-Armored Cruisers:
-Argentina ...........27.129 tons
-Chile..................20.700 tons
-Torpedo-Boats:
-Argentina............2.006 tons
-Chile..................4.132 tons
-Auxiliary Ships
-Argentina..........2.542 tons
Chile..................1.590 tons

Total
Argentina........43.078 (53.000 after the arrival of the Pueyrredon in late 1898)
Chile...............46.082

For the ships themselves

Argentina:

4 Destroyers (acquired between 1890 and 1892)
-ARA Santa Fe (204 Tons)
-ARA Entre Rios (204 tons)
-ARA Misiones (204 tons)
-ARA Corrientes (204 tons)

22 Torpedo-Boats_
-Narrow Class (Thorne, Pinedo, King, Jorge, Bathurst, Bouchard) (90 tons each)
-Thornycroft Class (Comodoro Py and Comodoro Murature) (110 tons each)
-ARA Rosales (520 tons)
-Other: 10 of the type 50 of the UK RN+second class torpedo boats ARA Alerta, ARA Enrique Py and ARA Ferré

2 Monitors
-ARA Los Andes (1,600 tons), built in 1872, acquired in 1875
-ARA La Plata (1677 tons), built in 1872, acquired in 1875

Cruisers:
-ARA Buenos Aires (4.800 tons) (1896)
-ARA 9 de Julio (3.570 tons) (1892)
-ARA 25 de Mayo ()
-ARA Patagonia (1.530 tons) (1885)
-ARA Patria (1.070 tons) (1893)

Armored Cruisers: (Garibaldi Class, acquired between 1895-1898)
-ARA Pueyrredon (8.000 tons)
-ARA Garibaldi (8.000 tons)
-ARA San Martin (8.000 tons)
-ARA General Belgrano (8.000 tons)

Battleships:
-ARA Admiral Brown (4.300 tons-1884)
-ARA Independencia
-ARA Libertad (2.336 tons-1892)

Chile

Listed in 1906 as three old battleships, 6 cruisers and 10 destroyers

Armored Frigates
-Blanco Encalada (3.560 tons) (1875-1891)
-Admiral Cochrane (3.560 tons) (1875)

Monitors
-Huascar (captured from Peru in 1879, useless due to an accident in 1896)

Cruisers: (4.100 tons each)
-Presidente Errazuriz (1890)
-Presidente Pinto (1890)
-Blanco Encalada (1893)
-Ministro Zenteno (1896)
-Chacabuco (1898)

Armored Cruisers
-Esmeralda (7.000 tons-1896)
-O'Higgins (8.500 tons-1899)

Battleships
-Captain Prat

As you can see, I'm having some trouble finding info about the Chilean navy, and some of the Info I've found thus far is contradictory (damn you wikipedia and Chilean websites! :rage: )
 
-Chile had the problem of a possible three-way war against Argentina, Bolivia and Peru; not as likely as in 1978, but a distinct possibility nevertheless. At the same time, it'd take a lot to have Brazil do the same and declare war on Argentina, especially just after the fall of the Empire and the subsequent revolutions of the 1890s;
Not only this, but the solution of the "Palmas Question" in 1895 - with the arbitration of Cleveland giving all the disputed territory in the Misiones region to Brazil - let us without any major grievance against Argentina in the late 1890's. Also, as you said, the rebellions of 1893-1895 and the Canudos War of 1896-1897 left the Army in ruins. Not only we had problems in armaments and personnel, but also there was a severe lack of good officers.

Also, we spent almost the entire decade of 1890 through an economical crisis, that only by 1900 was giving the first signs of improvement. We simply had no conditions to fight a war in 1901. IOTL, when at that time exploded the Acre crisis, our chancellor, despite the threats of war against Bolivia, confessed that we needed to secure the Acrean territory without bloodshed. "God keep us from a war, as we are dismantled and impoverished" as he said.

However, if there is a war between Argentina and Chile and Bolivia joins it, then it would be insteresting if it could be merged with the conflict over Acre.
 
So, let's hear it.

What's the Palmas Question, who were the parties and how was it resolved, and why?

What were the rebellions about and why?

What was the Canudos War?

What was the Acre Crisis?

How do they all fit together? Why did they arise? And what were the consequences of their outcomes?

You'll excuse me for being curious but lazy. Most of the people on this Board are likely not well versed in Latin American history in the southern cone.
 
Both sides were buying up naval hardware from third parties, though the exact details have escaped my mind. Of course, if it came to a war they would be blocked from taking possession unless they got them first. Britain bought up the Triumph and Swiftsure after the Chileans decided they didn't want them for the war...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

maverick

Banned
Well, that's 24+ hrs and so far we've got one detailed and well-written comment that was pertinent to one of the points of this thread, although not the main one, and another post that dealt with the main issue at hand, but on more general terms and with a conclusion that I believe might have been proven wrong elsewhere.

Interesting Exercise.
 
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