Idea: Longer Chinese North-South Division

China's Northern and Southern Dynasties period ended in 589 when the Sui Dynasty conquered the Chen Dynasty, but I think that China's reunification could still be delayed.

My suggestions for keeping China divided longer: First, Northern Qi survives as an independent state, instead of being conquered by the Northern Zhou in 577. This could happen with better leaders and if the Chen don't attack and weaken it. Second, Northern Zhou is weakened by internal struggles instead, perhaps between Emperor Xuan of Zhou and the man who would be Emperor Wen of Sui. Third, Chen is strengthened by the weakness of the Northern Zhou, keeping Sichuan at the very least and perhaps more bits of North China.

With a division of China into three powers, the era of Northern and Southern Dynasties would last longer, though it can't last forever. By 589, the Chen had maybe 2 million people. On the other hand, continued conflict between the Northern Qi and Northern Zhou might give Southern China a break. However, given the vast population imbalance, I might suggest that the Northern Qi would actually be in the best position to conquer the Chen by itself. In this case, we would see the conquest of the south before we get a reunification on east-west lines.

Thoughts?
 
I don't know very well history of China but longer division is possible but like you said it can't last forever. Chinese identity is so strong, that eternal or many centuries lasting balkanization not be possible.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I don't know very well history of China but longer division is possible but like you said it can't last forever. Chinese identity is so strong, that eternal or many centuries lasting balkanization not be possible.
Whether this is true at -this- point in history is pretty controversial, after all, you only had one real lasting unifying Dynasty in China up until this point.

It certainly became true during the second imperial period, but that's more than 1000 years after this.
 
I think Mongol Empire will unite China again, if Turkic or Kidan (Liao Dynasty) did that already.

After fall Han is good POD.
Another POD would be Kublai couldn't invade Southern Song.
China was divide after Liao Dynasty invaded half of North China and Jin controlled north of Huai river. So if Southern Song survives, then China will be divided for more than 300 hundred years. By that time there might be some divergent between North and South China. Former will be influenced by Nomads (e.g Jurchen, Kidan, Mongols and other civilizations under Mongol rule) while later could be more merchant and naval power.
 
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I think Mongol Empire will unite China again, if Turkic or Kidan (Liao Dynasty) did that already.

After fall Han is good POD.
Another POD would be Kublai couldn't invade Southern Song.
China was divide after Liao Dynasty invaded half of North China and Jin controlled north of Huai river. So if Southern Song survives, then China will be divided for more than 300 hundred years. By that time there might be some divergent between North and South China. Former will be influenced by Nomads (e.g Jurchen, Kidan, Mongols and other civilizations under Mongol rule) while later could be more merchant and naval power.
Well, the elites who ruled South China during the Song were definitely committed to the idea of one China, but I guess you're right for North China. Theoretically, long-enough periods of foreign domination might make Chinese in the North less favorable towards unification. Historically, they were already more okay with foreign rulers.

You might get a situation where sometime around 1400 or 1500, people in North China have been living under foreign rule for so long that they don't feel Chinese any more. By 1500, the Sixteen Prefectures would have been under six centuries of Khitan/Jurchen/Mongol rule, for example. But I don't think people in South China would develop their own identity.
 
Bumping this. No interest? That's funny to me: usually people on this forum are racing to divide China into northern and southern states, regardless of the historical realities. I say this, before somebody suggests the Taiping Rebellion as a possible point of divergence, since it would not have worked.
 

FDW

Banned
Bumping this. No interest? That's funny to me: usually people on this forum are racing to divide China into northern and southern states, regardless of the historical realities. I say this, before somebody suggests the Taiping Rebellion as a possible point of divergence, since it would not have worked.

You could have a stronger Goguryeo able to occupy the attention of the North Chinese states to the extent where they wouldn't be able to marshall enough strength to conquer the south. It's kind of doable if you prevent Silla from taking the Han River Valley from Goguryeo in the mid 6th century.
 
You could have a stronger Goguryeo able to occupy the attention of the North Chinese states to the extent where they wouldn't be able to marshall enough strength to conquer the south. It's kind of doable if you prevent Silla from taking the Han River Valley from Goguryeo in the mid 6th century.
By the time of the later Nanbeichao, that would be too late. The Northern Wei largely blocked Koguryo's expansion into mainland China. Despite the chaos as the Northern Wei collapsed, Koguryo never launched any attacks against either the Northern Qi or Northern Zhou.
 

FDW

Banned
By the time of the later Nanbeichao, that would be too late. The Northern Wei largely blocked Koguryo's expansion into mainland China. Despite the chaos as the Northern Wei collapsed, Koguryo never launched any attacks against either the Northern Qi or Northern Zhou.

That's because that was right around the time Silla and Baekje drove Goguryeo out of Han River area, which crippled Goguryeo's power projection capabilities. It didn't help that Goguryeo was also undergoing civil war and facing nomad invasion during that period.
 
That's because that was right around the time Silla and Baekje drove Goguryeo out of Han River area, which crippled Goguryeo's power projection capabilities. It didn't help that Goguryeo was also undergoing civil war and facing nomad invasion during that period.
That might be true, but if Koguryo can't handle Paekche or Silla, there's no way it could handle the Northern Wei or its successors, or force these states to even pay major attention to it.
 

FDW

Banned
That might be true, but if Koguryo can't handle Paekche or Silla, there's no way it could handle the Northern Wei or its successors, or force these states to even pay major attention to it.

Well, the civil war came first, and then the invasions by the nomad tribes and Baekje-Silla happened. If you can butterfly the start of the civil war (which was triggered by the assassination of a king that no clear heirs, which is never a good thing for stability), then you might Goguryeo taking more advantage of the chaos.
 
Well, the civil war came first, and then the invasions by the nomad tribes and Baekje-Silla happened. If you can butterfly the start of the civil war (which was triggered by the assassination of a king that no clear heirs, which is never a good thing for stability), then you might Goguryeo taking more advantage of the chaos.
That was some 100 years after the Northern Wei came to dominate Northern China. However, Koguryo didn't attack in the 490s, when there was one major revolt by Xianbei, or in the 520s, when the Northern Wei went through enormous turmoil and civil war. And it's not like Koguryo suddenly became militarily insufficient in the middle of the 6th century. By then, even the Eastern Wei or Northern Qi would be enough to deter expansion just by themselves.
 
You could have a stronger Goguryeo able to occupy the attention of the North Chinese states to the extent where they wouldn't be able to marshall enough strength to conquer the south. It's kind of doable if you prevent Silla from taking the Han River Valley from Goguryeo in the mid 6th century.

That's because that was right around the time Silla and Baekje drove Goguryeo out of Han River area, which crippled Goguryeo's power projection capabilities. It didn't help that Goguryeo was also undergoing civil war and facing nomad invasion during that period.

Goguryeo had to consistently keep watch over its western and southern frontiers simultaneously for centuries, and especially after Geunchogo began to expand his territory by conquering the Mahan statelets in the mid-4th century. The first major conflict between Baekje and Goguryeo resulted in Gogukwon's death, and the former continued to retain control over its northern territories until Gwanggaeto and Jangsu began to expand south. Jangsu's southern invasion also served to demonstrate to the Wei that Goguryeo remained as the dominant power east of the Liao River, along with destroying hopes for a potential Baekje-Wei alliance. As a result, Goguryeo was more intent on retaining the fragile geopolitical balance within Northeast Asia, and was more focused on consolidating its gains from 391-475 instead of expanding further to the west.

Well, the civil war came first, and then the invasions by the nomad tribes and Baekje-Silla happened. If you can butterfly the start of the civil war (which was triggered by the assassination of a king that no clear heirs, which is never a good thing for stability), then you might Goguryeo taking more advantage of the chaos.

Goguryeo relocated its capital to Pyongyang in 427 in order to concentrate on the south, while Baekje and Silla conducted an alliance in 433 in order to counter their northern neighbor. Goguryeo then attacked Baekje in 455, 475, 495, 506-7, 512, and 523, and Silla in 454, 468, 480-1, 484, 489, 494, and 496-7. Meanwhile, Baekje attacked Goguryeo in 469, 502-3, and 529, while Silla did so as well in 494, in addition to other battles among the three not recorded in the Samguk Sagi. Of these, Goguryeo withdrew in 455, 494, and 495 when one of the states sent aid to its ally, while the alliance repulsed the northern invader in 481, 484, and 494, and Goguryeo conquered Wirye Fortress in 475 because Silla failed to send aid in time. In other words, the situation among the three states was a general stalemate before Anjang was assassinated, and considering that frequent conflicts continued to occur afterward as well, Goguryeo was busy with conflicts against the southern alliance to even think about further excursions to the west.

That was some 100 years after the Northern Wei came to dominate Northern China. However, Koguryo didn't attack in the 490s, when there was one major revolt by Xianbei, or in the 520s, when the Northern Wei went through enormous turmoil and civil war. And it's not like Koguryo suddenly became militarily insufficient in the middle of the 6th century. By then, even the Eastern Wei or Northern Qi would be enough to deter expansion just by themselves.

It's also worth noting that the remaining Buyeo nobles surrendered to Goguryeo in 494 as a result of pressure from nomadic tribes, while Goguryeo and Baekje clashed with each other in 523 and 529, as stated above, suggesting that it was more interested in stabilizing its borders instead of eying possibilities for significant expansions.

An earlier possibility would involve Micheon heading further west due to disorganization among the Xianbei, instead of the Former Yan's foundation in 337, but would probably result in Goguryeo expanding not much further than Liaoxi, and would also require other Xianbei tribes to ally with Goguryeo in their attempts to push further southward.
 
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Bumping this. No interest? That's funny to me: usually people on this forum are racing to divide China into northern and southern states, regardless of the historical realities. I say this, before somebody suggests the Taiping Rebellion as a possible point of divergence, since it would not have worked.

We should take account 2 things in China.

1. North China Plain has no natural barrier and if the people living there has homogenous culture and same identity. So without external pressure North China will be united whatever it matters.

2. Once North China is united, power in North China will conquer South China. Given how population is concentrated in North China it is matter of time.
 
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