Yeah and the guy states the famine "wouldn't even count as news".
Icarus: A Climate TL
- Thread starter ItsMyKetchup
- Start date
I been watching this in the graphics thread for quite some time now, I'm glad it's a proper TL now
Dang, are things that bad in Brazil that we are considered a country a bit likely to collapse?
Abstract, Disclaimers, and Rules
A national government is any internationally recognised political authority that has jurisdiction over a designated area. For the purposes of this forecast, “internationally recognised” means that the national government is a member or observer of the United Nations, or is recognised by multiple U.N members.
For a national government to collapse, it must have disintegrated to the point where it fails to govern or function. That includes the following characteristics:
Please note that coup d'etats, regime change, revolution, or any scenario resulting in an immediate successor state that does not fulfil the above criteria does not count as the national government having collapsed. However, if a change in government results in a continuing civil conflict where there is no clear successor state, the national government is considered to have collapsed.
- Loss of control over most or all of their territory
- Ineffective enforcement of the state’s “monopoly on violence”
- Failure to uphold their part of the social contract (e.g providing protection, maintaining order, economic assistance, or continuing public services)
- Loss of recognition from other states
- Prolonged lack of clear leadership structure and authority
At least two reputable news sources (e.g. Agence France-Presse, Associated Press, BBC News, etc.) must have used the word “collapse” or an appropriate synonym when discussing the country at hand for the ongoing cycle to be resolved in that contract’s favour. Clairvoyant reserves the right to unilaterally determine the winning option and close the ongoing cycle. An explanation on the thought process behind choosing the winning contract will be posted to our blog 14 days after the cycle closes.
1 March 2019 Update: Increasing confusion regarding contradictions between reputable sources means that the 15 January 2019 to 23 February 2019 cycle is invalidated. Points will be refunded to the appropriate accounts, and pending payouts and credit conversions will be retracted. We apologise for the inconvenience.
To limit future confusion, countries in Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand) will not be contracts in this forecast. Furthermore, a government going into exile will be counted as a “collapse” moving forward.
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According to the clairivoyant screenshot, gas prices as of that tl's present are lower than OTL by a bit. Okay 4.39 or so instead of around $5.
A couple of the things I’m the most curious about in this timeline are the surviving Soviet Union and reunified Korea. What stemmed off from the POD to cause those changes?
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Brazil might well be considered a beacon of hope for Latin America, considering it has not collapsed into complete anarchy yet. But yes, a combination of a water crisis, increasing UV levels, refugees from the former Peru and Bolivia, spillover of violence from Colombia and Venezuela, an IMF loan deal falling through, and political instability means that some people think it's next on the chopping block.
The USSR dissolves like normal in 1991, but butterflies manage to strangle Russia's economy even worse in 1998. Yeltsin becomes even more unpopular, his bribes are revealed, is impeached, and Primakov becomes President. In time, the Communists gain more power, cruising off of nostalgia, and Russia is rebranded as the Socialist Federative Republic of Russia. Still referred to as Soviets in the West.
In 2011, North Korea is hit hard. A slighter harsher climate compared to OTL means that there are more floods and a smaller harvest in summer of 2011. Military talks with South Korea become heated, and the South pulls out much of its aid. Kim Jong-il dies in early December, while on a visit to China. The worsening humanitarian situation and the loss of their leader creates a power struggle in the country, which both China and South Korea intervene in to secure any nuclear warheads lying around.
That all makes sense to me. What’s the situation in the former Soviet Bloc? Are the previous SSRs and Warsaw Pact states still under some semblance of Russian influence, or have they largely gone their own separate ways? In other words, has this nostalgia you mentioned propelled the SFRR to re-expand communism further beyond its own borders?
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Wouldn't it make more sense for Peruvians and Bolivians to go to Chile or Argentina?
considering that the countries speak Spanish. With the Venezuelans it was like that. Not to mention that the region that Peruvians can flee is acre (which is not a human-friendly region).
Regarding violence from Venezuela and Colombia, is it concentrated in the Amazon region?
It is the region that borders these countries, but it does not have a major impact factor in the political or social area, it has a small population and economy.
The biggest problem will probably be internal migration from arid regions (especially the northeast) to other regions.
Political instability is likely, but if the nation becomes unstable at this point, a military coup will occur, as has happened on other occasions in this nation's history. Supported by the middle/upper class probably.
Honestly, if the pressure gets that big, there's likely to be a war in south america. with countries trying desperate measures to survive, even if it means the death of another nation. Nations between war and collapse always choose war.
There is significant Russian influence in Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. The rest of the former satellite states prefer to be closer to Europe. Russia isn't all that interested in spreading communism, it's content with keeping its current sphere of influence of authoritarian-leaning states.
Europe's bulwark against climate refugees. Like OTL, it receives generous payments for stopping migrants, and most of the time, migrants are put into facilities in southern Turkey or northern Syria/Iraq. Its relationship with the West has been frayed in recent years due to disagreements over the refugee deal and due to increasing tension with Greece over Cyprus and the Aegean Sea.
Peruvian and Bolivian refugees flooded everywhere, which was primarily Chile/Argentina but also included Brazil. The bulk of the violence is concentrated in the Amazon region, and though it is sparsely populated, Brazil still has to try to maintain some semblance of control in the region.
Yeah, internal migration is also a major issue I didn't mention, and most people would probably be shoved into expanding favelas in the least arid parts of the country.
Oops.
But also, what on earth is happening to cause the complete closure of Great Smoky Mountains National Park?
Judging by the article, militia groups are using it as a haven.
Forget taking bets about the next country to collapse. What about the last one to collapse? One of the Nordics I'm guessing.
How exactly common are these sorts of anti-gov't militias and their associates in the U.S.? They must be significant in some regard, considering that they're seemingly successful in seizing control of places like national parks.
>ozone hole over arctic, likely expanding like the antarctic and the equatorial ozone hole that's starting to be a thing
>nordic as last to collapse
optimistic of you and a bold take
SuperZtar64
Banned
I imagine they'd be pretty common. There are a couple little clues that tell you that the domestic situation in the South has reached crisis levels, such as the fact that hardly any southern states have even taken action on the ICA, and the ones that did are the more northerly ones. Stay at home orders are in effect for most southern cities, but what of the countryside? The federal government is busy enough as it is.
Where governmental authority wanes (or falls out of trust), parallel structures of social control tend to emerge. What we're seeing here is the political and social disintegration of the South happening in slow motion.
eh, i interpreted that as southern states not wanting the ica to pass so they could flee
SuperZtar64
Banned
If they wanted that to happen they could've done what California did and rejected it. I think the real reason they're taking no action is because I honestly doubt the state legislatures are even in session.
That could still be too expensive for most people given the state of the economy. Also, the bit about the UK passing a moratorium on new car sales seems to indicate that governments are trying to discourage private automobile use.