Icarus: A Climate TL

Redo the evacuation of LA?

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Introduction
  • Index
    • ItsMyKetchup

    ItsMyKetchup

    Icarus: A World Avoided​

    ​
    Upon the left they passed by Samos, Juno's sacred isle;
    Delos and Paros too, were left behind;
    and on the right Lebinthus and Calymne,
    fruitful in honey. Proud of his success,
    the foolish Icarus forsook his guide,
    and, bold in vanity, began to soar,
    rising upon his wings to touch the skies;
    but as he neared the scorching sun, its heat
    softened the fragrant wax that held his plumes;
    and heat increasing melted the soft wax—
    he waved his naked arms instead of wings,
    with no more feathers to sustain his flight.
    And as he called upon his father's name
    his voice was smothered in the dark blue sea,
    now called Icarian from the dead boy's name.
    — Ovid's Metamorphoses, Book VIII

    “‘My name is Ozymandias, king of kings;
    Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!’
    Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
    Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
    The lone and level sands stretch far away.”
    — “Ozymandias”, Percy Bysshe Shelley


    Okay, well now that we have the requisite poetry dealt with, welcome to the thread of Icarus, a maps and graphics timeline detailing a world dealing with a significantly worse climate crisis than OTL.

    Point of Divergence
    In 1974, Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina discovered that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had a devastating effect on the Earth’s ozone layer, following the work of other pioneers in the field of atmospheric chemistry. By the 1970s and 1980s, awareness of the growing “ozone hole” had led to decisive action by governments worldwide, culminating in the global ratification of the Montreal Protocol in 1987 that helped curb the use of CFCs and eventually, other similar chemicals. This means that today, the ozone layer is expected to recover by 2050.

    But, say, Rowland never took a position at UC Irvine in 1964, and thus he and Molina never meet. If that influential 1974 paper is never published, what could happen? Well, other theories besides CFCs could be used to explain the growing ozone hole[1], which means that CFCs might not have been the widely accepted theory until much later.

    Icarus describes such a world. By the time the reason the ozone hole is worsening is discovered, the political window for action to happen is fast closing. Thus, the climate continues to steadily worsen, and by the 2010s, vast swathes of the world are uninhabitable as governments continue to drag their feet on meaningful ozone and climate legislation.

    [1] For example, proposed theories included changes in Antarctic atmospheric circulation, malignant effects of nitrous oxide, or chemical changes as a result of cloud particles. See “http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/SEES/ozone/class/Chap_11/11_1.htm”.

    The Timeline
    Icarus occurs in real time, so most updates will be about the situation in the early 2020s. There may be a few updates regarding events in the past or glimpses into the future.

    Index of Previous Works
    Nov 19
    Arcavist,

    Disculpas for the long interval tween messages recently. I’ve had troubles with the post and seems my correspondense sometimes gets lost on the way to Santa Rosa (prolly thanks to those degens in Vallejo). If this letter doesn’t arrive by next week, it’s prolly better for you to visit inperson.

    Now, onto bisness. Part'a the roof at Sacto’s Central Library was caved in when I visited, so that means I cant get most'a the books you requested. On the other side, I was able to find John Brunner’s “The Sheep Look Up” and John Steinback’s “Grapes of Wrath” thru other means; they’ll be delivered to the usual address.

    Also, I’ve a friend up in Yuba that was finally able to fix the oldworld laptop you sent, and somehow that teck wizard managed to recover something useful from that hunka crap. Hope that makes up for the lack’a material I’ve sent your way the past couple weeks.

    Attached you’ll find a description’a the files from the laptop that I think are’a interest to your line’a work. Seemed whoever owned it was some top dog pre-Collapse.

    PS — maisure that payments arnt sent by express mail, that just makes it more likely to be stolen by raiders. Still need around 300 platas from our last exchange.

    LIST’A RECOVERED FILES

    -A sorda news report about some long deadlanded city, dated 2021

    -Again, nother news report, this time about food shortages (wouldint even count as news now), dated 2021

    -A third news report, something about a military op in the tropics, dated 2021

    -A map’a Hawaii, c. ~2010s

    -A map’a Korea, dated 2021

    Come down to Sacto and I’ll show you the files in person. Be quick tho, the battery isn't likely to last all too long.
     
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  • Index
    • Clairvoyant.com: Next national government to collapse?
  • Index
    • ItsMyKetchup

    ItsMyKetchup

    rGM7VOA.jpg


    Abstract, Disclaimers, and Rules

    A national government is any internationally recognised political authority that has jurisdiction over a designated area. For the purposes of this forecast, “internationally recognised” means that the national government is a member or observer of the United Nations, or is recognised by multiple U.N members.

    For a national government to collapse, it must have disintegrated to the point where it fails to govern or function. That includes the following characteristics:
    • Loss of control over most or all of their territory
    • Ineffective enforcement of the state’s “monopoly on violence”
    • Failure to uphold their part of the social contract (e.g providing protection, maintaining order, economic assistance, or continuing public services)
    • Loss of recognition from other states
    • Prolonged lack of clear leadership structure and authority
    Please note that coup d'etats, regime change, revolution, or any scenario resulting in an immediate successor state that does not fulfil the above criteria does not count as the national government having collapsed. However, if a change in government results in a continuing civil conflict where there is no clear successor state, the national government is considered to have collapsed.

    At least two reputable news sources (e.g. Agence France-Presse, Associated Press, BBC News, etc.) must have used the word “collapse” or an appropriate synonym when discussing the country at hand for the ongoing cycle to be resolved in that contract’s favour. Clairvoyant reserves the right to unilaterally determine the winning option and close the ongoing cycle. An explanation on the thought process behind choosing the winning contract will be posted to our blog 14 days after the cycle closes.

    1 March 2019 Update: Increasing confusion regarding contradictions between reputable sources means that the 15 January 2019 to 23 February 2019 cycle is invalidated. Points will be refunded to the appropriate accounts, and pending payouts and credit conversions will be retracted. We apologise for the inconvenience.

    To limit future confusion, countries in Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand) will not be contracts in this forecast. Furthermore, a government going into exile will be counted as a “collapse” moving forward.

    17 July 2020 Update: Given the recent rise in popularity this forecast has seen lately, it should be noted that payments are not given out directly after making a successful prediction. You must first convert points into credits. Residents of the European Economic Area are not eligible to have their points converted into credits.
     
  • Index
    • Twenty-eighth Amendment
  • Index
    • ItsMyKetchup

    ItsMyKetchup

    "The 'constitutional right to travel from one State to another' is firmly embedded in our jurisprudence. [...] It protects the right of a citizen of one State to enter and to leave another State, the right to be treated as a welcome visitor rather than an unfriendly alien when temporarily present in the second State, and, for those travelers who elect to become permanent residents, the right to be treated like other citizens of that State."
    —Justice John P. Stevens, Sáenz v. Roe    ​

    The Twenty-eighth Amendment (Amendment XXVIII, also known as the Internal Control Amendment) to the United States Constitution allows Congress to temporarily regulate the movement of people between states under certain emergency circumstances. Approved during the 2022 Convention of the States, the amendment became a part of the United States Constitution on September 25, 2022. It is the most recently adopted amendment.

    The effects of climate change caused significant demographic shifts within the United States, with the Evacuation of Hawaii, the Gulf Exodus, and the Los Angeles water crisis all causing unprecedented numbers of internally displaced persons resettling within other areas of the country. The political reaction to these events often eschewed the traditional partisan divide. Instead, the northern United States generally saw greater support for internal migration control compared to other regions.

    As such, the Twenty-eighth Amendment was proposed in Congress, but was approved by amendatory convention. Despite legal disputes, the Supreme Court held in California v. Cole that the procedures during said convention were constitutionally valid, and the amendment was eventually ratified by the requisite number of states.

    As of October 2022, the Twenty-eighth Amendment has been used to restrict internal movement in the following states: Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas.

    Text​

    SECTION ONE. The Congress shall have the power to temporarily regulate the ingress and egress of persons to and from one State to another.

    SECTION TWO. The Congress may not exercise the powers granted by Section One unless it can sufficiently prove that continued unregulated movement would impose extreme and undue hardship on the welfare of citizens of one or more States, and that regulation of such movement is the best possible way to relieve the hardship.

    SECTION THREE. The powers and privileges of the several States are not impaired except to the extent necessary to give effect to such legislation enacted by the Congress.
     
    Last edited:
  • Index

    • Arthur Marston

    ItsMyKetchup said:
    "The 'constitutional right to travel from one State to another' is firmly embedded in our jurisprudence. [...] It protects the right of a citizen of one State to enter and to leave another State, the right to be treated as a welcome visitor rather than an unfriendly alien when temporarily present in the second State, and, for those travelers who elect to become permanent residents, the right to be treated like other citizens of that State."
    —Justice John P. Stevens, Sáenz v. Roe    ​

    The Internal Control Amendment is a proposed amendment to the United States Constitution that would authorize Congress to temporarily regulate the internal movement of persons within the United States. The amendment was proposed on October 1, 2021, following the Evacuation of Los Angeles and the ensuing Southwestern Refugee Crisis. Following gridlock in Congress regarding the amendment's passage, 34 states petitioned for an amendatory convention of the states, which was called on March 7, 2022, a first in the nation's history. The convention approved the Internal Control Amendment on April 27, 2022. Other amendments were proposed at the convention, but no other amendment proposals were approved. Some opponents of the amendment have claimed that the organization of the convention was unconstitutional, and thus the amendment's approval was invalid.

    It is currently submitted to the state legislatures for ratification. 38 states are needed for the amendment to become part of the Constitution. As of June 2022, the amendment has been ratified by 27 states. Supporters of the amendment say that it is needed to prevent climate refugee crises that would worsen conditions in much of the country, while critics say that the amendment would dangerously expand the power of the federal government and create a category of climate refugees who are denied the right to travel and deemed second-class citizens.

    TextView attachment 751228​

    SECTION ONE. The Congress shall have the power to temporarily regulate the ingress and egress of persons to and from one State to another.

    SECTION TWO. The Congress may not exercise the powers granted by Section One unless it can sufficiently prove that continued unregulated movement would impose extreme and undue hardship on the welfare of citizens of one or more States, and that regulation of such movement is the best possible way to relieve the hardship.

    SECTION THREE. The powers and privileges of the several States are not impaired except to the extent necessary to give effect to such legislation enacted by the Congress.
    Click to expand...
    I smell a second American Civil War on the horizon.
     

    Beatriz

    Are there plans for evacuating (paltry remnants) of humankind offworld to a Moonbase in the event things collapse entirely?
     
    Aisha Clan-Clan

    Aisha Clan-Clan

    Beatriz said:
    Are there plans for evacuating (paltry remnants) of humankind offworld to a Moonbase in the event things collapse entirely?
    Click to expand...
    >moonbase
    >maintaining a technological civilization using just a base on the moon without a functioning local industrial base
    uh... good luck with that
     
    Sirion

    Sirion

    ItsMyKetchup said:
    rGM7VOA.jpg


    Abstract, Disclaimers, and Rules

    A national government is any internationally recognised political authority that has jurisdiction over a designated area. For the purposes of this forecast, “internationally recognised” means that the national government is a member or observer of the United Nations, or is recognised by multiple U.N members.

    For a national government to collapse, it must have disintegrated to the point where it fails to govern or function. That includes the following characteristics:
    • Loss of control over most or all of their territory
    • Ineffective enforcement of the state’s “monopoly on violence”
    • Failure to uphold their part of the social contract (e.g providing protection, maintaining order, economic assistance, or continuing public services)
    • Loss of recognition from other states
    • Prolonged lack of clear leadership structure and authority
    Please note that coup d'etats, regime change, revolution, or any scenario resulting in an immediate successor state that does not fulfil the above criteria does not count as the national government having collapsed. However, if a change in government results in a continuing civil conflict where there is no clear successor state, the national government is considered to have collapsed.

    At least two reputable news sources (e.g. Agence France-Presse, Associated Press, BBC News, etc.) must have used the word “collapse” or an appropriate synonym when discussing the country at hand for the ongoing cycle to be resolved in that contract’s favour. Clairvoyant reserves the right to unilaterally determine the winning option and close the ongoing cycle. An explanation on the thought process behind choosing the winning contract will be posted to our blog 14 days after the cycle closes.

    1 March 2019 Update: Increasing confusion regarding contradictions between reputable sources means that the 15 January 2019 to 23 February 2019 cycle is invalidated. Points will be refunded to the appropriate accounts, and pending payouts and credit conversions will be retracted. We apologise for the inconvenience.

    To limit future confusion, countries in Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand) will not be contracts in this forecast. Furthermore, a government going into exile will be counted as a “collapse” moving forward.

    17 July 2020 Update: Given the recent rise in popularity this forecast has seen lately, it should be noted that payments are not given out directly after making a successful prediction. You must first convert points into credits. Residents of the European Economic Area are not eligible to have their points converted into credits.
    Click to expand...

    So there exists a website where you can bet on what the next country to collapse will be?
    This timeline's world seems like even more of a nightmare than I'd originally thought.
     
    ItsMyKetchup

    ItsMyKetchup

    Beatriz said:
    Are there plans for evacuating (paltry remnants) of humankind offworld to a Moonbase in the event things collapse entirely?
    Click to expand...
    No, the inhabitants of this timeline won't be able to get away from the mess they created so easily. I have a space-related update in the works, but it is pretty bleak (par for the course at this point, really).
     
    Aisha Clan-Clan

    Aisha Clan-Clan

    ItsMyKetchup said:
    There is much more investment into vertical farming and anti-desertification, and some of those projects have started to bear fruit. Oil production is also lower than OTL... and that's about it.
    Click to expand...
    >oil production being lower than otl
    uh
    isn't that bc of the whole "economy going to shit" thing? you've got >america >food imports ffs you've got americans being o nrations. AMERICANS
     
    Aisha Clan-Clan

    Aisha Clan-Clan

    The fuuture scavanger guy's talking about "deadlanded" areas and the comments about food shortages, a headline about famine in the US implies things are still really bad several hundred years on
     

    Arthur Marston

    ItsMyKetchup said:
    There is much more investment into vertical farming and anti-desertification, and some of those projects have started to bear fruit. Oil production is also lower than OTL... and that's about it.
    Click to expand...

    Aisha Clan-Clan said:
    >oil production being lower than otl
    uh
    isn't that bc of the whole "economy going to shit" thing? you've got >america >food imports ffs you've got americans being o nrations. AMERICANS
    Click to expand...
    Oil demand is probably lower because gas prices have gotten to the point where driving an ICE vehicle is too expensive for most people.
     
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