Okay, I'm not following.
It was "a perceived weakness' borne out by OTL, but that doesn't mean it was an actual weakness.
And I'd love to see something detailing the strength of the garrison vs. what the Japanese brought with them. Not something written by "some guy on the internet" but something documented.
Okay I am only "some guy on the internet"...but I got all of my information from published sources including Jane's for the ranges of guns and the US Navy historical documents loaded on their web site.
So...while I think I have posted this before, I can't find the link.
Midway invasion compare
US Forces on Midway.
Sand Island
12 5-Inch Guns.
4 7-inch Guns
6 3-inch Guns
3 Searchlights
18 3-inch AA Guns
8 .50-Caliber HMG
8 .30 Caliber MMG
4 37mm AA Guns
6 20mm AA Guns
800 infantry, with integral heavy weapons (Another 12 HMG, 12 MMG, 24 LMG, plus 12 mortars)
800 marine support troops with light weapons.
8 Light Tanks.
Eastern Island
6 5-inch Guns
4 7-inch guns
6 3-inch guns
3 Searchlights
18 3-inch AA Guns
8 .50-Caliber HMG
8 .30 Caliber MMG
4 37mm AA Guns
6 20mm AA Guns
400 infantry with integral heavy weapons (Another 6 HMG, 6 MMG, 12 LMG, plus 6 mortars)
400 marine support troops with light weapons.
There was also a squadron of 10 PT boats at Midway tasked to attack landing craft if they got inside the reef.
The Japanese plan was to have the “Close Support Group” actually cover the landing while the “Covering Group” stood off and protected them from a distance.
So the forces that Midway itself would have to deal with for the landing would be
the 4 Cruisers of CR Div 7 Depending on how the rest of the battle goes two of them may or may not be there, for arguments sake say they are.
Suzuya, Kumano, Mogami, Mikuma 10x20cm main battery which sounds good except... after research “This class is seen by naval architects as trying to fit a quart into a pint pot” basically they fast heavily armed but fragile the wrong kind of ship to get in a duel with shore batteries. Their 8 inch guns have very similar max range but a shorter effective range than the 7-inch guns on Midway but the US has better fire control and a stable platform to fire from.
2 destroyers in Destroyer Division 8
Asashio, Arashio 6x 127mm main battery these are fairly typical Japanese DDs with heaver armament than the US DDs of the same time period. Also to remember they have a total range of 5700 NM at optimum cruising speed (10 knots) they have used over 2400 of that so they are going to have to watch the high speed dashes or need to refuel on the way home. (The range at 34 knots is only 960NM).
The Transport Group had 12 transports and freighters.
I can not find how many landing craft the Japanese had with them but I will give them the benefit of the doubt and assume the have enough to land their planned 2550 troops in a single wave. Which would be a minimum of 26 Toku Daihatsu Type landing craft, give them 30. They had the capability to carry 100 men or 16 tons of Cargo at 11 knots for 30MN They draw 3.3 feet of water and have either 1 HMG, 2 LMG or 3 Light AA guns. Figure a mix for this operation.
The Japanese planned to land with 1250 men on Sand island and 1200 on Eastern Island. The remaining 2500 men in the landing force were construction and follow on survey groups
The Old DD Shimakaze with 4 120 MM guns.
The Old DD Nadakaze with 2x 120 mm guns
The Old DD Suzuki (I can’t find this ship but from the above I can’t believe it has more than 4x120 mm guns...)
They also have a Screen of a Light Cruiser and 10 more Destroyers which I will ignore for now because their plan is that the Screen is not going to attack Midway at all but is to protect the rest of the ships from subs and aircraft so for our purposes for now these ships are just burning fuel keeping the US subs from sinking the Japanese fleet.
The Japanese have the preponderance of heavy weapons but the Americans are dug in deep and there is only one entry to the Atoll that the Landing craft can use except at high tide, even then there are places in the lagoon that are under a meter in depth especially north of Eastern Island if they are not careful how they Eastern the landing craft could get hung up on a sand bar. The second problem for the Japanese is they have no idea how many troops and guns are actually on Midway, as far as I can tell their operational intelligence was non existent they truly expected that the only troops were ground crews for the aircraft, AA gunners and construction crews building the airfield. I don’t have any reports of if this changed after the reports of the attacking pilots or the destroyers that shelled Midway during the battle but by then it’s too late to change the plan. So unless someone on the Japanese side has the initiative to change the plan at the last minute (and the WWII Japanese were not noted for changing the plan, riding the plan down to oblivion yes, changing the plan no.) They are going to send only the close support group in, leave the Screening group out screening the transports, the Close support group plan was to close to within 5K yards and start shelling the airfield, air defenses and any beach defenses that were visible.
Here is where things get interesting. The US has an Effective Range of 18K yards with the 5-inch guns 15K yards with the 3-inch guns and 29K yards with the 7-inch guns. How close do they let the Japanese get? On one hand if they let them get to within 15K then all the guns can hit them, on the other hand if the 7-inch start hitting at 29K yards all of the Japanese ships are out of effective range (The Japanese Cruisers had max range of 27K but effective range of about 22K yards) so there is some chance that the US manages to knock out some of the Cruisers before they take any hits at all. My take is that the US would start firing as soon as possible in the hopes of Knocking one or more Cruisers out of the battle.
So, now the question is what the Japanese do? My opinion is they speed up and close to their effective range to and turn to clear broadsides. So they are going to take about 15-20 minutes to get from 29K yards to 22K yards and turn broadside. That gives the US time for around 30-40 aimed rounds per gun (stated ROF for the 7-inch is 3 rounds per minute but I am reducing it some). This is on the order of 250+ 7 inch shells hitting around 4 historically fragile Cruisers. I would be surprised if more than one of them make it to their effective range, and very unlikely that any of them survive long enough to knock out any of the US 7-inch mounts. Basically this is the result when Cruiser class ships dual with shore batteries without Battleship or Monitor support. The Destroyers have a better chance to close because they are more maneuverable so they can change course and speed unexpectedly and avoid the volleys from the larger guns but once they close to within 18K yards they have to deal with the US 5-inch batteries which have a ROF of 15 rounds per minute and during the war proved to be very accurate. This kind of battle is not playing to the Japanese Destroyers strengths which is quick slashing attacks with torpedoes not slugging matches with shore batteries.
If the remaining Japanese commander of the Close Support group is smart he pulled out before he lost all of his Cruisers. And called for help from the Covering Group which includes 4 more heavy cruisers and two Battleships. Here I am unsure what the Japanese would do, because to this point in the war have not used their Battleships as shore bombardment weapons, however in OTL we are less than 6 months from them doing so at Guadalcanal. So I will assume that the commander of the covering force moves forward with his force to give support.
This gives the Japanese the following additional force (I will ignore DDs for now except for how many since like the Screening group they are mostly to protect the heavies from subs and aircraft).
4 Cruisers Atago, Chokai, Myoko, Haguro
2 Battleships
Kongo 4 14-inch guns, 16 6 inch guns 8 3 inch guns. Max effective gun range 29K yards
Hiei 8 14-inch guns 15 6inch guns 8 3 inch guns. Max effective gun range 29K yards
NOTE: The listed Max range for the 14 inch gun is 38K yards however after doing additional research the gun as installed in these two had a shorter effective range due to fire control, max elevation of the mounts and the mounting of the guns in the turret mechanism. which is why I am listing the range at 29K yards which was the longest shot I could find documented for either of these two ships, most of the shots for these two were at 24K or under.
I was a bit surprised about the range limits on these two Battleships I was expecting that when the Battleships got involved they could sit at max range and pound the crap out of the Island w/o answer from the Americans. It does not look that way. OTOH it does not look like the American guns will do much good as they don’t have the penetration to get through the Battleship armor.
Now I am going to make another assumption, the First Mobile Force is busy sparing with the Americans during all of this. The POD I pick is that the US did not get luck and knock out the Japanese carriers on June fourth. The two carrier forces maneuver away to the north west of Midway with the Japanese eventually sinking the American carriers on June 8t. However by this time all of the Cruisers and Destroyers are running on fumes and the Japanese carriers are down to just a few operational aircraft each so they refuel their escorts and turn for home leaving the Midway invasion group to handle the Island by its self. This fits with the pattern of OTL behavior so I feel I am on safe ground with this one. If the First Mobile force finishes off the American carriers sooner and chooses to return to help the Midway Occupation force it will be harder for the Midway defenders but not impossible - read the last possible invasion scenario below for why.
However because of this the Japanese Midway occupation force is dealing with Midway with the air cover of a single light Carrier with 12 Zeros and 11 Vals embarked. While the US still has 6 F2A-3 Buffalo and 5 F4F-3s remaining along with 19 B17, 2 B26, 4 TBF Torpedo bombers, 4 SB2U-3 dive bombers, 10 SBD-2 dive bombers and 30 PBY patrol bombers. So the US has more planes but fewer worse fighters while the Japanese have better fighters but the Zeros have a hard time shooting down the PBYs, and B17s, have trouble catching the B26s, TBFs and SBDs but can shoot down the SB2U’s and F2As at will. The F4Fs have a chance but the pilots are fairly demoralized because they just lost 2/3s of their squadron to the Japanese carrier strike. So my feeling is that the Americans are going to keep trying to bomb the Japanese Midway Occupation force mostly failing because they are going about it wrong. The one group that has a chance is the PBY group, if they can get a dawn or dusk strike they can do some real damage and my opinion is that would be exactly what the commander of the patrol wing would try to do. They have a day while the Covering Group moves into position from their covering position after the Close support group fails to bombard the Atoll. The Americans are going to have patrol aircraft up watching the Close Support group retreat and will be trying strikes which will fail completely because they will be high level strikes by the B17’s. There is a chance that the Dive bombers would do damage but my expectation is that the commanders would hold them in reserve for any sign of the Japanese heavy ships and not spend them on DDs. If they spot the transports it might be a different story but I will not give that to the Americans because that ends it right there - basically if an American sub, Patrol Bomber or Dive Bomber spots the transports and reports in its “Good Night Gracie” every Bomber and sub that can is going to head that way.
So that would be one way it ends.
Another way is that the PBY’s launch a dawn attack and damage or sink one or both of the battleships, since actually taking Midway is about the third or fourth priority and it is obvious the Americans have many Patrol Aircraft left on the island the Midway Invasion force pulls back.
Another way is that the Battleships through pull up just outside the range of the 7-inch guns pound them to pulp, pound the Airfields to pulp, fight off all the USAF and USMC attacks - maybe taking some damage maybe not. The Japanese move their transports to within 25K Yards of shore to reduce the turn around time for the landing craft. Unload the landing craft, load troops into the landing craft and head for shore with 14-inch rounds rumbling overhead pounding the rubble - this will be easy, they had two battleships covering them, nobody could survive that bombardment! They chug toward shore at a blazing 11 knots when out of the center of the Atoll came 10 US PT boats flying over the water at over 35 knots they dodged fire from the Destroyers escorting the Transports and bored in on the slow clumsy landing craft all 10 PT boats opened up with their 2 twin-.50-Caliber HMG mounts and their 20mm Cannon ripping the clumsy landing craft to shreds for a loss of 3 PT boats. The PT Boats then turned toward the Battleships weaving and dodging in an attempt to get the prize all PT Boat crews dream of, but it was not to be, in order to reach attack range for their Torpedoes the PTs need to close to within 12K yards which is well within secondary armament range of the Battleships, plus every escort is targeting them now. Two reach attack range but none manage to fire their torpedoes before being blasted out of the water.
Third way is the Battleships not only shoot up the 7-inch guns, the Airfield and fight off the aircraft but also spot and shoot up the PT Boats (which they didn't have intelligence were there). So again...The Japanese move their transports to within 10 miles of shore (25K Yards or so) to reduce the turn around time for the landing craft. Unload the landing craft, load troops into the landing craft and head for shore with 14-inch rounds rumbling overhead pounding the rubble - this will be easy, they had two battleships covering them, nobody could survive that bombardment! The landing craft move to the single entrance to the lagoon and suddenly the Americans open up with their guns and HMG. So how many are left, based on OTL experience with shore bombardments expect that over 75% of the guns and 90% of the MGs would survive so figure - 12 5-inch guns, 8 3 inch guns, and 30+ .50-caliber HMGs open up and rip the boats to shreds. Even giving the Japanese as good a results as the late war American bombardment they are in unarmored landing craft. If they manage to get across the lagoon in the face of this fire, they will then have to face 30+ MMGs plus 3+ companies of Infantry on each Island. In addition these are (for landing craft) deep draft craft, having a draft of 1 meter, over 40% of the lagoon has a depth of less than 1m at high tide and is above water at low tide. With the volume of fire going on it will not be obvious where the low spots are. Especially for the Eastern Island landing group the obvious course is dead wrong and will end up with the landing craft beached half a mile from the actual beaches with 5 meter water between the beached landing craft and Eastern Island.
Now if the Japanese loose this landing group their nearest replacement group is either at Turk or Guam. Take your pick. But either way they have to pull back and get them, plus to make matters worse they are now (assuming this has taken 3 days) at the point where they have to pull back and refuel their Destroyers and other short ranged ships before continuing with anything they do. If in fact they had to run their DDs at faster than 19 knots they will have to pull back at 10 knots to keep from running them dry or fuel within range of any aircraft left on Midway.
This is why I think it is unlikely the Japanese can take Midway in June 1942.
