I want to talk about Italian East Africa

Cook

Banned
In 1947-48, a well drilling crew drilling for water in Fezzan hits petroleum instead.

Is it necessary to point out how many orders of magnitude deeper you have to drill in that region to hit oil than you would if drilling for artesian water?
 
Is it necessary to point out how many orders of magnitude deeper you have to drill in that region to hit oil than you would if drilling for artesian water?

Maybe only a minor change is needed, after all IRC there were suspects that under Lybia soil there were oil but the tech was unobtainable (american monopoly). With Benny not involved in the war he can try to buy it later or the USA sell him as a good will measure as to build him up as a anti-communist bulkward, after all Italy is too big to ignore as done with Spain.
 
Italy in the 1930s had a plan to turn what is now called Libya into a majority Italian territory. Without the war as a distraction, and with the knowledge of just how much oil is there (another POD), this could be accomplished by the early 1950s. I suspect that Mussolini would offer to take large numbers of Jews from Hitler if they would agree to go to Libya. They would help build up a majority European non-Muslim population. Although a large percentage of them would probably move on later to Israel or the United States, still, they would serve as a "bridge" in building a majority European population. Probably a large chunk of Libya and its oil wealth would be turned over at some point to the indigenous Arab population, but many Arabs would probably choose to stay in the Italian part of the country. The Italian part would become firmly, forever, part of the Italian state and nation, and the oil wealth and enhanced geopolitical importance that this results in for Italy would make it a much more important factor in NATO than in OTL, especially if fascism were reformed from within. Another result would be that the Italian Communist Party would not be anywhere near as powerful in Italy either as an underground force or as a participant in a resurgent parliamentary system.

To keep ALL of Libya as Italian, the Italians would have to forgo the usual settler practice of treating the "natives" as a servant underclass with only limited civil rights, and to make sure they fully participate in the prosperity flowing from the oil wealth. Given the history of Mussolini's treatment of the Arabs in the 1920s and 30s, I doubt this would be possible. Hence the eventual split (after nasty violence on both sides) into two entities, one Italian and one Arab.
 
With what though? I don't think you can make much of a viable state out of the Fezzan unless you include either Tripolitania or Cyrenaica for this Muslim nation to have some access to the sea.
 
Is it necessary to point out how many orders of magnitude deeper you have to drill in that region to hit oil than you would if drilling for artesian water?

I can agree with your assessment of how much deeper drillers would have to drill however, at a certain depth (over 200 feet) if there is the potential for petroleum some of the water that comes up may have a small film of oil on/within it. If a technically competent drill crew notices this, it is within the realm of possibility that a Petroleum Geologist/Crew could come, do a detailed assessment and determine if the potential for further exploration (drilling) is feasible within a pre-determined area, say 12-15 square miles approx 300-1500 feet deep. In other words, if there is some petroleum within a water sample, depending on how much petroleum is within say a 25 gallon water sample, they might be able to predict how much, if any, more oil there could be. Much also depends on the location of oil source, price of crude, price to construct pipelines, etc., how many years it will take to construct the infrastructure, how long before they see a return on initial investment etc. In Fascist Italy's situation, impending NATO membership, devoutly anti-communist credentials, combined with the USA's strategic goals in 1947-1975....it is a definite maybe:D. Joho:)
 
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Cook

Banned
Not too long ago there was a thread concerning Mussolini drilling for oil in Libya. It was pointed out by an oil engineer that Libya having oil wasn’t even suspected at the time and was inconsistent with the theories of the day. And is deep drilling for the era.


We’re getting off track of East Africa again.
 
Not too long ago there was a thread concerning Mussolini drilling for oil in Libya. It was pointed out by an oil engineer that Libya having oil wasn’t even suspected at the time and was inconsistent with the theories of the day. And is deep drilling for the era.


We’re getting off track of East Africa again.

Is there anything left to discuss concerning East Africa that I didn't ask? I do want to continue the conversation regarding it.
 
I don't know but East Africa is such a mixed bag.

The Somalis apparently came from the interior, they had no tradition of coastal fishing, even in the 80's the government had little understanding of or use for the longest coastline in Africa. Development of a modern port (1900's modern) somewhere along the Horn would challenge British control over the Red Sea by controlling access to it from the south.

There were persistent reports of oil in the Ogden. But exploration wells were destroyed when Lt. Col. Mengistu Haile Mariam came to power. If that were true politics on the Horn would change considerably.

The Somali's felt sold out by the British in the negotiations which drew the post WWII political boundaries: this what they considered true Somaliland. Each of the five points of the Somali star indicated a section of "Greater Somaliland." Hard to get along with your neighbors when your flag claims part of their territory (northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and half of Djibouti).

If one could bind the Somali clans into a cohesive force you could control the Horn and much of the Indian ocean.
 
Not too long ago there was a thread concerning Mussolini drilling for oil in Libya. It was pointed out by an oil engineer that Libya having oil wasn’t even suspected at the time and was inconsistent with the theories of the day. And is deep drilling for the era.


We’re getting off track of East Africa again.

According to "Petroleum Geology of Libya" by Don Hallet.

The Italians did undertake geological studies of Libya and there were signs that oil was there. In 1926 traces of oil were first discovered in a water well near Tripoli. Italian oil company began reconnaissance work in 1940 that was cut short by the war. It was at this time that the Italians came to the conclusion that the Sirte Basin could contain oil.
 
So would the Somalis in Italian Somaliland press for independence from Italy once French and British Somaliland are let go or would they press for them to be united?
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
So would the Somalis in Italian Somaliland press for independence from Italy once French and British Somaliland are let go or would they press for them to be united?
Probably. And if the Fascists are still in charge of Italy, expect Italian East Africa to get very bloody very quickly.

Decolonization will not be taken well by the Fascists, and I can see them entertaining ideas about conquering everything that France and Britain let go, though said parties are unlikely to stand for such a thing.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
It will be WORSE than the Algerian war...
It'll probably be more reminiscent of the Second Italo-Abyssinian War, at least the further inland you get. The Fascists aren't going to be shy about using overwhelming force and collective punishment to fight the nationalists. Terror bombings and massacres are more likely to be the rule rather than the exception. They'll make the French look cuddly, in part because the Fascists won't even try to hide how fucking awful they are to natives.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I remembered this little nugget the other day:

Robert Paxton said:
Policies of racial discrimination had already become acceptable to the Italians in the colonies [by 1938]. First in Libya and then in Ethiopia, the Italian military adopted tactics of separating nomads from their animals and from food and water. Their mass internment seemed to prefigure their elimination. In Ethiopia, laws forbade racial mixing (though they were widely flaunted). Angelo Del Boca can even use the word apartheid for what Fascism tried to institute in Ethiopia.
 
Well I see Italy ending up like Portugal. Going into the 70's fighting Colonial wars while anti-war and anti-government movements sweep the nation. Mussolini, best case scenario, lasts until at most 1954-55. So it really depends on who succeeds him. As long as the Fascists remain in control of the government they will refuse to let go of Italian Eat Africa. Italian settlers will be encouraged to settle in Ethiopia, but the most popular place for colonization will be Eritrea. After Libya, which will become close to a part of Italy, if it doesn't fight for independence like Algeria and France.
 
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