I want to talk about Italian East Africa

[Cuāuhtemōc]

In a timeline where Mussolini's Italy never aligned itself with Nazi Germany and remains having a rather large colonial empire in Libya and the horn of Africa, I want to discuss the development of Italian East Africa (this including Ethiopia just for clarification). Colonial policy in regards to the native population usually came in encouraging the locals into integrating into the Italian culture in addition to implementing divide and conquer. The Fascist regime also tried to encourage Italian immigration into East Africa by the creation of agriculture and small industries though the Fascists were not successful in this regard at least into the heartland of Italian East Africa, Ethiopia. Wikipedia did state they were a little more successful in Italian Somaliland and Eritea where more Italians did settle down, at least until WW2.

So anyone willing to predict how Italian East Africa develops? I highly doubt it would remain merely a colonial federation. Would it win independence as a single federated country with the King of Italy as its monarch or would it split apart?

 

[Noravea]

For one thing Italian would be more widely spoken, similar to how French is spoken in former French colonies. Maybe Libya will still be under Italian control today?

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

For one thing Italian would be more widely spoken, similar to how French is spoken in former French colonies. Maybe Libya will still be under Italian control today?

Probably so but I'm not talking about Libya.

I see no reason why the Italian language wouldn't take hold in East Africa. It would become the 'common' language of the colonial federation, given the wide diversity of ethnic groups that live there. I am referring more to demographics in regards to the continued Italian immigration in the area and its religious, political, military, and cultural development.

 

[lukedalton]

In the end Eritrea will probably goes the Lybia way basically become a part of metropolitan Italy by italian immigration and cultural invasion, btw eritrean ascari were the italian gurka and higly considered and appreciated as soldiers, there were a lot of italian investment in Eritrea and even immediatly after WWII there were a lot of pro italian sentiment.
Somalia and Ethiopia will be gently let go...ok probably not to gently but if Portugal lasted till the 70's Italy can stay at least in the 80's. Ethiopia will always rebel ridden and any colonization, immigration, economic effort will be disrupted by this and in the end goes away like Algeria.
Somalia is the middle child, not so rebelius as Ethiopia but not assimilated like Eritrea and mantain a sizeble italian minority but not so enormous like the other colonies, in the end will obtain first limited self rule and later more autonomy can go independent but the tie with the motherland will always be strong and yes italian will be speak a lot more in Africa

 

[basileus]

We's lose anything anyway, and it would be pretty bloody. I can envision long, painful decolonization wars led by Communist-aligned rebels, and a particularly brutal one in Libya. But in the end, the natives would come out the winners, much like in Algeria: politically, despite a substantial military defeat.
Italians would be forced completely out of Ethiopia and Libya, whereas Erithrea and Somalia would remain far more amicable. Italian would remain a prestige and intercommunication language in Ethiopia, not so in Libya.

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

We's lose anything anyway, and it would be pretty bloody. I can envision long, painful decolonization wars led by Communist-aligned rebels, and a particularly brutal one in Libya. But in the end, the natives would come out the winners, much like in Algeria: politically, despite a substantial military defeat.
Italians would be forced completely out of Ethiopia and Libya, whereas Erithrea and Somalia would remain far more amicable. Italian would remain a prestige and intercommunication language in Ethiopia, not so in Libya.

Again this isn't so much a discussion of Libya but according to Wikipedia:

The Italians in Libya numbered 108,419 (12.37% of the total population) at the time of the 1939 census. They were concentrated in the coast around the city of Tripoli (they constituted 37% of the city's population) and Bengasi (31%). Once oil is discovered in Libya and with Italy remaining neutral during World War II, you'll see that percentage increasing over time, at least in terms of Cyrenaica and Tripolitania.

There isn't a possibility of Italian East Africa remaining united as a federation if it does win independence?

 

[basileus]

Again this isn't so much a discussion of Libya but according to Wikipedia:

The Italians in Libya numbered 108,419 (12.37% of the total population) at the time of the 1939 census. They were concentrated in the coast around the city of Tripoli (they constituted 37% of the city's population) and Bengasi (31%). Once oil is discovered in Libya and with Italy remaining neutral during World War II, you'll see that percentage increasing over time, at least in terms of Cyrenaica and Tripolitania.

There isn't a possibility of Italian East Africa remaining united as a federation if it does win independence?

Libya wasn't a very interesting destination, most people wanted to go to the US or to South America. The Arabs would quickly recover demographically and overwhelm the Italian colonists, less disposed to fight to the death, they all expected a quiet existence there.
East Africa couldn't form a federation since Ethiopia had an imperial tradition - unles a modern multinational political leadership arises among the rebels, which I find unlikely.

 

[Cornelius]

In ATL where Italy steers clear of WW2, unlikely it may be, the horn of Africa could be the downfall of Fascism. No matter how much money Mussolini would be willing to sink, there never would be enough italian colonists to counter the local population. In effect no european nation was able to keep any part of Africa, short of some costal town. So basically we have two possible scenarios:

1) Mussolini refuse to accept the inevitable and fights on to keep control of Abyssinia. In the end numbers win over the fascist stubborness and Ethiopia becomes indipendent, while the economic crisis caused by the military effort destroy the fascist regime, as happened in OTL Portugal.

2) Mussolini, or his successor, understands that keeping Abyssinia is near impossible and opt to create a few puppet regimes. Playing carefully the several factions against each other, Mussolini could set up an "indipendent" and "free" Abyssinia, Erithrea and Somalia. Each of this nations would keep good relations with Italy, grant few military bases and house few italian regiments, sent there to train the local police/army and guarantee the local goverment against "communist" insurgents.
Mussolini could also go further and steal a page from Great Britain book, setting up an "Italian Commonwealth of East Africa" with Vittorio Emanuele as formal head of the newly established states.

In the former scenario the only points to clarify is how soon the fascist are ejected from East Africa and how bloody is the aftermath. If the ethiopians try to keep the whole AOI as their own, a civil war is going to explode immediately; if they are somewhat more restrained we could have a OTL like situation.

In the latter scenario is difficult to predict how long the italian influence would last: there are simply too many butterflies. But if it last enough, it would cause an awful lot of changes. For example the italians would try to meddle into the first sudanese civil war, with some interesting results...

As for Lybia, though not requested by the OP, the fascists are going to fight tooth and nail to keep the oil. They would flood the place with colonists and then held a "democratic referendum" over the colony fate. A referendum where italians would weirdily be the majority of the voters.

The repression and the forced integration of the arab element would be ugly, but if the italians manage to gain some of the tribes on their side through corruption, they could keep their hands on Lybia (not an easy job, though).

Again, it's interesting to imagine what Italy would have done if it had kept Lybia. I think, for example, that Mussolini would have stickied his nose in the Suez crisis, if not directly in Egypt during the Nasser revolution.

 

[abc123]

Sincerely I doubt that a big number of Italians would settle there. Italy had Somalia, Libya and Eritrea for allmost/over 40 years and 95% of Italians went into USA, Argentina, Brazil etc. and only 5% in colonies.
Also, with rebellion against Italians in Ethiopia ( and I don't see how would Italians win there ) and attacks on white settlers, number of those that want to live there will be even lower.

 

[abc123]

while the economic crisis caused by the military effort destroy the fascist regime, as happened in OTL Portugal.

Portugal actually progressed quite well economicly while making wars in colonies, and things went downhill ( or at least stayed the same ) after decolonisation.

 

[Cornelius]

Sincerely I doubt that a big number of Italians would settle there. Italy had Somalia, Libya and Eritrea for allmost/over 40 years and 95% of Italians went into USA, Argentina, Brazil etc. and only 5% in colonies.
Also, with rebellion against Italians in Ethiopia ( and I don't see how would Italians win there ) and attacks on white settlers, number of those that want to live there will be even lower.

Of course, the regime had also lots of problem to convince that 5% to go there in first instance. Settling the Horn IS a lost cause. Anyway Lybia is another matter: once oil is discovered, it could crete enough interest to shift a part of the emigration. Besides, in an ATL where Italy didn't partecipate to WW2, the emigration pattern is going to be rather different to OTL.
Mind you, I'm talking about the best outcome for Italy, not the most probable. That is a redo of Algeria's indipendence.

Portugal actually progressed quite well economicly while making wars in colonies, and things went downhill ( or at least stayed the same ) after decolonisation.

Funny, I was under the impression that the decolonization wars had a lot to do with Salazar'fall and that economy wasn't in such a good shape.

 

[Swiftbread]

Portugal was actually experiencing economic growth despite the war. Italy should be able to continue a colonial war longer than Portugal due to a larger military and economy but I doubt it is one that could be won. Portugal at least had some friendly neighbors.

 

[Wendell]

Are we to assume that there is still a Second World War, but Italy, like Spain, largely/wholly sits out except in the most symbolic of ways?

If so, then the survical of fascism is itself a huge butterfly, and might actually impact Spain in ways impossible in our timeline.

However, Africa is the focus of this discussion, as indicated in the OP. As such, I suspect that Libya will be lost anyway. The East, however, is a very different story. One could see the Italians inviting Jews fleeing Europe to settle in the area, and for the Germans to consider this as an alternative when the Wansee Conference occurs. Mussolini goes for it for a number of reasons. Namely, the skills and expertise that these settlers could bring would contribute to the modernization of the region. Additionally, adding another cultural group to the mix further advances the "divide and conquer" strategy employed in Ethiopia to that point by the Italian colonial administration. More consequentially, however, is the effects this could have on the Arab World. Long term, this potentially weakens or wrecks the miaphysite Ethiopian Church while enhancing the breakaway Ethiopian Catholic Church already at this point in communion with Rome.

As long as fascism prevales in Italy it will in Ethiopia as well without the world war. The real point of contention here to me is what becomes of British Somaliland and French Somaliland.

 

[abc123]

Of course, the regime had also lots of problem to convince that 5% to go there in first instance. Settling the Horn IS a lost cause. Anyway Lybia is another matter: once oil is discovered, it could crete enough interest to shift a part of the emigration. Besides, in an ATL where Italy didn't partecipate to WW2, the emigration pattern is going to be rather different to OTL.
Mind you, I'm talking about the best outcome for Italy, not the most probable. That is a redo of Algeria's indipendence.



Funny, I was under the impression that the decolonization wars had a lot to do with Salazar'fall and that economy wasn't in such a good shape.

You were obviously under a wrong impression.


About Libya, yes, maybe with discovery of oil it is possible to retain her as part of Italy or in some federation with Italy. Maybe some Commonwealth-type organisation for Eritrea and Somalia...

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

Are we to assume that there is still a Second World War, but Italy, like Spain, largely/wholly sits out except in the most symbolic of ways?

Yes. Italy stays out and remains neutral throughout WWII. Italian neutrality is perhaps a bit more beneficial to Germany's military efforts but not enough to change much for the war but that's stuff for a completely different conversation.



This is a map of the subdivisions within Italian East Africa. I figured this would be good for reference.

To your suggestion for Fascist Italy inviting European Jews to settle down in the area, I believe a member (I forgot his name) had this implemented in a timeline regarding Italo Balbo. It's a nice alternative to facing certain imprisonment and execution in the concentration camps. Wouldn't such an inflow of Jews end immediately with the creation of Israel as an independent Jewish homeland? I can see the increase in members of the Ethiopian Catholic Church with continued Italian occupation. In Italian East Africa, the Eriteans and Somalis were the most loyal out of the ethnic groups in the colony.

Now please bear with me, I don't know too much about pre-1900 history so don't massacre me if I say something in my rebuttal.

 

[Viriato]

Of course, the regime had also lots of problem to convince that 5% to go there in first instance. Settling the Horn IS a lost cause. Anyway Lybia is another matter: once oil is discovered, it could crete enough interest to shift a part of the emigration. Besides, in an ATL where Italy didn't partecipate to WW2, the emigration pattern is going to be rather different to OTL.
Mind you, I'm talking about the best outcome for Italy, not the most probable. That is a redo of Algeria's indipendence.



Funny, I was under the impression that the decolonization wars had a lot to do with Salazar'fall and that economy wasn't in such a good shape.

Salazar was out of power by 1968 and interestingly enough the wars in Africa are what made him open up the economy to foreign investment like never before. Prior to 1961 he roughly followed a policy of autarky and corporatism of Mussolini. With the war he opened up Portugal and the colonies to foreign investment like never before.

Average annual growth GDP growth rates of Portugal
1954-60 4.3%
1960-73 6.9%
1974-79 2.7%

His successor Marcelo Caetano went even further in liberalizing the economy and dismantling corporatist monopolies. Here is a comparative of average annual GDP growth between 1968-1973.

1968-1973
Japan 9.53%
Greece 8.00%
Portugal 7.66%
Spain 7.27%
France 5.30%
Germany 4.69%
Italy 4.61%
United States 3.6%
United Kingdom 3.44%

Perhaps, if a surviving fascist Italy was facing the same threat it too would open up its colonies to foreign investment. This gives other Western countries a stake in keeping the status quo (since most independence movements were marxist or at the very least socialist) and would not want the assets of their companies nationalised.

 

[Wendell]

Yes. Italy stays out and remains neutral throughout WWII. Italian neutrality is perhaps a bit more beneficial to Germany's military efforts but not enough to change much for the war but that's stuff for a completely different conversation.


[MAP]
This is a map of the subdivisions within Italian East Africa. I figured this would be good for reference.

To your suggestion for Fascist Italy inviting European Jews to settle down in the area, I believe a member (I forgot his name) had this implemented in a timeline regarding Italo Balbo. It's a nice alternative to facing certain imprisonment and execution in the concentration camps. Wouldn't such an inflow of Jews end immediately with the creation of Israel as an independent Jewish homeland? I can see the increase in members of the Ethiopian Catholic Church with continued Italian occupation. In Italian East Africa, the Eriteans and Somalis were the most loyal out of the ethnic groups in the colony.

Now please bear with me, I don't know too much about pre-1900 history so don't massacre me if I say something in my rebuttal.

Well, I think that the real impetus for a national home for Jews really only took off as a concrete idea due to the Second World War, and more specifically, the Holocaust. So, without it, I think that the Jews will largely accept assimilation into Italian society. Mussolini was many things, but racist wasn't one of them until his dependence upon Hitler became too great. I may be wrong on this point, but to me, Mussolini's vision of a new Rome spoke Italian but had several faiths existing together in a broader Italian/Roman identity. The Italian plan will presumably intend to settle the Jewish refugees in various parts of East Africa.

 

[Cook]

I think that the Jews will largely accept assimilation into Italian society. Mussolini was many things, but racist wasn't one of them until his dependence upon Hitler became too great.

The racial laws pertaining to Jews were introduced into Italy in 1938 following Hitler’s visit to Rome:

Many academics were forced to quite their posts, and senior army and naval officers were dismissed; Jews were banned from the professions. Mussolini had to find a new dentist.

Without the introduction of the racial laws Enrico Fermi would not have fled Rome (his wife was Jewish), the impact of this on the Manhattan Project would be considerable.

For Mussolini to remain outside Hitler’s sphere or at least neutral to a similar extent to Spain (Luftwaffe aircraft able to overfly Spanish airspace in transit, U-boats able to refuel, rearm and repair in Spanish ports) the point of departure would need to be 1938. The Italians realising the value to them of keeping the Anglo-Italian Pact they signed on 16 April 1938 would be critical, and that moving closer to Hitler would lead to war.

Perhaps if Mussolini stuck with his first instincts; as with regard to Ribbentrop he told Ciano, ‘He belongs to a category of Germans who are a disaster to their country.’

The problem however becomes the South Tyrol; here is an ethnic German population that has been oppressed and hankers to be part of the Reich, and Mussolini has fewer favours to call in, being complacent in the Anschluss will only buy Hitler’s friendship for so long.

The War would remain a grey, Northern European war, without the colour of the Mediterranean.

The Balkan’s campaign of 1941 could be butterflied away; Ciano and Mussolini would not be confident that they could remain outside the general European war if they attacked Greece, so you would have a surviving Fascist Mediterranean; Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece.

Sorry I can’t contribute anything directly pertaining to East Africa, but hopefully the broader sphere helps.

 

[Wendell]

I agree with Cook, and I'd forgotten about official Italian antisemitism starting when it did. Still, perhaps that aspect is reversed or dropped in this timeline. I suspect though that this timeline could, over time, make the Mediterranean and Red seas fascist lakes.

 

[Noravea]

The POD would have to be before 1938 for Italy to be neutral. In 36', after Abyssinia was invaded, Mussolini still disliked Hitler. The Holocaust could still happen (And likely will), but the Balkans and Italy would be spared. Mussolini could probably repair relations with the Western Allies at some point during the 9 year period from 1936-1945, and after the war, East Africa could be an alternative for a Jewish State (Or a very autonymous one).