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Okay Saddam would never actually think of leaving Baghdad under threats from Bush but supposing he did...
We still would have had to occupy Iraq to keep order and security for a year or so. On the flip side Bush crushes his Democrat opponent in a landslide a year later and the Republicans stay popular.
But chaos would still break out in Iraq and we get stuck in a quaqmire. Then Katrina hits and gas prices spike. Democrats would still win but not for a few more years...