I have came up with a pod that I think will lead to a independent CSA

Victorian Britain isn't a medieval state....

In 1856 it was decided that Prince Alfred, the second son and fourth child of*Queen Victoria of the United Kingdom, in accordance with his own wishes, should enter the*Royal Navy. A separate establishment was accordingly assigned to him, with*Lieutenant Sowell, R. E., as governor. He passed the examination in August 1858, and was appointed as*midshipman*in*HMS*Euryalus*at the age of 14.

In July 1860, while in this ship, he paid an official visit to the*Cape Colony, and made a very favourable impression both on the colonials and the natives.
He is then invited to Jamaica by its Governor, Sir Charles Henry Darling, where again the young royal, charms the colonials and the natives, becoming known as the People's Prince.

While travelling back to England, the ship was shot down by a US naval ship believing it was a Confederate ship. The bodyguard of Prince Alfred, was able to hold onto the young royal but sadly when the two were rescued, Prince Alfred was pronounced dead.

A younger member of the Royal Family?

That can be either Albert/Bertie/Edward VII, or Alfred. Arthur and Leopold were born in 1850 and 1853.

Albert did not have an active military career. You could, of course have someone attack him in 1860 when he was touring for four month throughout British North America and the United States, meeting Buchanan and going to Mount Vernon. Killing Bertie by the hand of an American would have far reaching consequences, but who might have done it?
A true madman? No political/diplomatic upheval. Shit happens.
An Fenian/other radical Irishman? Buchanan says he is deeply sorry.
An anti-royalist Canadian? Not the US's problem at all.
Unless you have a PoD like "Abraham Lincoln chops down the Prince of Wales with his axe." I don't see how that one can work. For your intendd purpose.

Alfred was in the RN since '58, and aboard the HMS Euryalus. Sending him to Bermuda or the Caribbean seems possible.

Whilst I don't hate the idea, nor am I saying that this would never lead to war (underline and italics to stop people jumping on me), I'd just like to point out that British foreign policy in the nineteenth-century is not dictated by the Royal Family or by public whim. The Parliamentary system, supported by a limited franchise, was remarkably independent in its decision-making, often refusing to bow to public pressure until crisis points had passed.

There would undoubtedly be public outcry if Alfred was killed onboard ship in conflict with a US vessel, but that doesn't automatically require the Government to declare war. A mediated solution, as with Trent, is the much more likely solution for Palmerston. Engaging the United States in open war is a huge roll of the dice for Britain in this period.

Also, I like the little vignette, but a brief nitpick is that I'm fairly certain the British Royals in 1860s didn't have bodyguards.
 
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