Hypothetically, How Much of Europe Would America Cede if the Soviets Promised to Leave Asia Alone?

As a thought experiment, in early 1945, suppose the Soviets had approached America with a promise of ending all support for communist movements in Asia, and generally complete noninterference between Afghanistan and Indonesia, as well as forfeiting any potential occupation zones in the Japanese Empire. Assume that, if the deal is accepted, the Soviets are permanently going to abide by this, and the Americans know they will do so. Of course, the Soviets would want "compensation" for this, and a lot of it too. How much of continental Europe (and the Middle East if you believe the answer would be "all of Europe") would America be willing to "cede" to Soviet domination in exchange for this offer?
 
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Roosevelt hated the idea of spheres of influence.

But if the situation on the ground was bad, say D-Day got botched not by the Germans but gross Anglo-American incompetence, then he or his successor could be resigned to it along with Churchill's successor.

What I think you'd see is OTL+Red Germany with maybe a northern Allied occupation zone next to Denmark or on the northwestern frontier, Red Finland and Austria - Italy, Netherlands (due to high Nazi collaboration, but maybe not), and France (Vichy) punished by being demilitarized a la Finland/Austria. You could see a postwar Free France in Algeria in these situations. You'd likely see a difference in treatment based on collaboration vs resistance. Denmark and Norway likely stay Allied-aligned, though northern Norway may be occupied and set up as North Norway and a forward naval base in the Atlantic.

If Russia gets really greedy, they could make a play for Turkey or Persia for the all-important warm water ports.

The way Stalin pulls this off with credibility is by offing Mao as a destabilizer and explicitly backing the KMT and by refusing to support communist movements except in supporting general decolonization.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
But this is 1945 not 1985.
FDR and many influential others, heck almost everyone at the top in the US, was in awe of Stalin. Communist guerrillas were active fighting the Axis powers and not a threat to the US at all in their eyes.
Ceding bits of Europe? How does that work with allies? Plus FDR and mister reasonable Stalin had already agreed on occupation zones in Europe. In Asia, they wanted Soviet help not feared it. The Cold War wasn't imaginable as it later became. 1945 was a very different time.
 
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