Hurricane Sandy's Effects on the Elections

How would the 2012 elections have been different if hurricane Sandy had not occurred? Say, the weather was fairly nice in the northeast lately.
 
How would the 2012 elections have been different if hurricane Sandy had not occurred? Say, the weather was fairly nice in the northeast lately.

The three to four point swing nationally in favor of Obama doesn't happen and Romney wins the race by a slim margin.

Heck keep the storm and take away Chris Christie handing Obama the ultimate pre-election photo op and the bump is IMHO down to 1-2 points for Obama... which would have made it a Bush vs Gore level close race.
 
This already? Wow...

And for the record I totally disagree. Mittmentum was a lie after the second debate and Obama was steadily growing even before Sandy.

The margin may have been closer but Obama still would have won.

This barely counts as AH at this point, especially considering that sudden climatic changes are usually ASB territory. His victory is not even a day old.
 
Personally, without Hurricane Sandy, I think Hillary Clinton would have been able to beat President Romney; Romney's decisive reaction to the storm, I think, really reminded way to many people of the disaster of Hurricaine Katrina, and John Kerry's bungled response.

Here's hoping for Governor Obama in '16!!
 
The three to four point swing nationally in favor of Obama doesn't happen and Romney wins the race by a slim margin.

Heck keep the storm and take away Chris Christie handing Obama the ultimate pre-election photo op and the bump is IMHO down to 1-2 points for Obama... which would have made it a Bush vs Gore level close race.

I'm gonna say no. It was Mitt's to lose. I honestly cannot see him winning.

I can, however, see this as a conservative narrative for why Obama won.

Personally, without Hurricane Sandy, I think Hillary Clinton would have been able to beat President Romney; Romney's decisive reaction to the storm, I think, really reminded way to many people of the disaster of Hurricaine Katrina, and John Kerry's bungled response.

Here's hoping for Governor Obama in '16!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12AcglZ2xGw
 
No change in 2012, but the republican party, unable to blame external events for "stealing" the election a second time in a row, is forced to re-assess its unpopularity on many social and minority issues and goes on to win the 2016 elections.
 

JRScott

Banned
The impact of Sandy was probably minimal actually in the 2012 elections, it could play a huge role in 2014 elections. The response has been slow, the unionized northern utilities have refused help from ununionized volunteers from the south who came up to help. People as a result are suffering more than they should be. 2014 is when to look for the main impact of Sandy.

Sandy didn't really change the outcome in NY or NJ, it probably suppressed the vote a little, which would mean Obama probably lost out on some popular votes.

Thus without Sandy you'd see more voting in NY and NJ and you'd have slight more popular votes for Obama.
 
How would the 2012 elections have been different if hurricane Sandy had not occurred? Say, the weather was fairly nice in the northeast lately.

Romney likely would have had significantly better stats, but by this time, all of the gaffes, bullshit, etc. were really starting to catch up to him anyhow; it's very possible that he'd still have lost, although maybe just not Florida, too, (along with all the other swing states that weren't North Carolina) but which still would have given Obama as many as 303 EVs(or at least 281, without Va.) in total. So it was kind of a lost cause anyway.

@JR: Oh, and btw, that rumor about non-unionized workers being banned from assisting in Sandy relief just wasn't true:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...that-non-union-crews-banned-from-storm-relief
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/11/union_official_denies_non-unio.html
 
Chris Christie may continue his Obashing, instead of publicly showing his appreciation for Obama while claiming that he was still "endorsing" Romney. Obama may have won NH by a smaller margin, and Obama may get slightly less than 50% of the popular vote, instead of the 50.4% majority that he is now enjoying.

Besides that, no effect at all. Don't see how things would change much, he would still win Florida since it is totally unaffected, though perhaps it would be within a 0.1% margin, which would automatically trigger recounts and recounts. And so, no effect at all, not even the electoral vote tally would have been changed, though Obama may have won 49.9999999% of the popular vote instead of 50.4%:p;) (Even so, I think Obama would still have won something like 50.1%:D)
 
I still think Obama wins but Romney carries FL and VA plus the vote in Ohio/PA is closer (but still Obama wins). Romney might win Iowa or Colorado

Basic answer, Obama still wins but it's a 4am in the morning kind of win.
 
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