Hurricane Katrina hits the upper Texas coast

PoD: In August 2005, a butterfly flaps its wings, and because of this, there is good and bad news.

The good news is that Katrina misses New Orleans.

The bad news is that Katrina makes landfall between Freeport and Galveston on a track similar to the one Ike took 3 years later...as a Category 5 hurricane.

Effects on Texas and the economy anyone?
 
The damage is going to be severe, but probably not as bad as OTL due to lacking the catastrophic levee failures that all but obliterated New Orleans OTL. The overall economy bounces back sooner than OTL, but Texas will be making repairs for a while.

I imagine there will also be far less political fallout than OTL, thanks to the much lower death toll and lack or potential for a making racially charged statements. Local and state government will also probably work effectively with the federal government than OTL since Loiusiana has a different legal system from the rest of the US and an infamously corrupt political culture.
 
Galveston will be hit hard. Not 1900 hard thanks to the seawall but it will still be expensive. I expect Houston to get stormed out that same day-night. Oil wells out in the Gulf, refineries in Texas City and neighboring cities along the Gulf Freeway corridor will get shat up. But since this wouldn't be New Orleans, I'd expect the human cost to be much lower than IOTL.
 
A Category 5's storm surge is not gonna be stopped by Gavleston's 18-foot sea wall. Gavleston will be an absolute mess, most of the city wrecked. If it goes north from the position, it will lose strength but it will still be high Cat 3 low Cat 4 when it hits Houston. If it clobbers Houston at that strength, the mess will be massive.

For long-term damage, the worst case scenario is that said hurricane trashes Texas City and much of the oil refineries in the area. If it does manage that, the entire world has a BIG problem. The Houston area is half the oil refining capacity of the US, which means that the prices for all refined fuels - heating oil, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, everything - go through the roof. In the United States, gas would go past $7-8 in a hurry. Europe would probably win up with $15 a gallon, maybe more. The Economic results are hard to imagine.
 
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