Hungry annexes most if not all of Greater Hungry by joining the allies late WW2

That was against a partisan army not a standing army of an unoccupied nation. The allies would not take that standing down.
Not exactly. Yes the Poles were a partisan army and the Germans took about 6 weeks to liquidate Warsaw as the Red Army waited to the east. I am sure that the Red Army would have also allowed the Germans to fight the Hungarian army but remember the Red Army defeated the much larger German army. As to Allied response I doubt they would have done anything. In early 1945 FDR's two main goals were Stalin's commitment to join the war against Japan and to join his United Nations. Churchill's overriding goal was the preservation of the British Empire with the return of all crown colonies. Just as they did nothing for Poland they really could not do much more for Hungary; in fact they had even less reason to come to Hungary's aid since it was an axis member unlike Poland whose preservation was the stated casue of the war.
 
Not exactly. Yes the Poles were a partisan army and the Germans took about 6 weeks to liquidate Warsaw as the Red Army waited to the east. I am sure that the Red Army would have also allowed the Germans to fight the Hungarian army but remember the Red Army defeated the much larger German army. As to Allied response I doubt they would have done anything. In early 1945 FDR's two main goals were Stalin's commitment to join the war against Japan and to join his United Nations. Churchill's overriding goal was the preservation of the British Empire with the return of all crown colonies. Just as they did nothing for Poland they really could not do much more for Hungary; in fact they had even less reason to come to Hungary's aid since it was an axis member, unlike Poland whose preservation was the stated casue of the war.
Hungry is never in the axis in this because in the first sentence of the first post, it says Italy does not invade Yugoslavia or Greece. Without these wars hungry and the rest of the Balkan axis, minors have no motivation to join the axis because there is no motivation to because the axis is not at war with anyone they can get land from like they did in our timeline (except possibly Romania, Bessarabia and all). Winston Churchills balken plan allows for the reverse to happen within this scenario Hungary Bulgaria and Greece. it might be smart to coordinate this around D Day so the Germans have 4 primary fronts 1.Italy, 2.eastern, 3.balken front, 4.France, with the idea that dividing German troops over meny fronts will help to stretch them thin as an example expect the Germans to get cut off from Romanian oil quicker then otl.
 
If Churchill gets his Balkan front and if this is planned in advance since they will be doing troop buildup in the Mediterranean to support this, does this change the location of the D day attack to southern France to simplify logistics because they already will have 2 major operations underway in the Mediterranean the Italian front and the Balkan front so with the inclusion of south France they can do a 3 pronged Mediterranean attack on the axis and create a true united Southern front.
 
If Italy stays out of the Balkans where sould the various Balkan countries line up--axis, allied or neutral. I doubt that even Churchill would have favored invading neutral nations.
 
If Italy stays out of the Balkans where should the various Balkan countries line up--axis, allied or neutral. I doubt that even Churchill would have favored invading neutral nations.
To solve what your talking about the Balkan minors best chances are if Romania is in the axis, should it join to regain Bessarabia from the Soviets like the finish did for there territory that got taken by the Soviets and if Yugoslavia is also in the axis because their king was pro-German it might also be done to so the Italians don't invade as well (worst case scenario If Italy raises a fuss Germany can step in like they did otl with Hungary and Romania by mediating a division of Transylvania between them but in this case a land swap between Adriatic Croatia and Italian Albania accompanied by a long-term plan to relocate the Croatian population to Albania post-war (which won't happen with axis defeat but they don't know that shhhhh ;))) (so Blue Croatia for Albania, pics from Wikipedia)
251px-NUTS_of_Croatia_%282013%29.png
222px-AlbaniaTraditionalCommunitiesByLanguageAndReligion.png

With that solved Yugoslavia alone can get these 3 involved
1.Greece (northern epirus, Albanians can be compensated with Kosovo after the war and possibly parts of Macedonia) (pic from Wikipedia)
585px-800px-Northern_Epirus%2C_1914.jpg

2.Bulgaria (They gets all of Macedonia if it is not split and if it is they still get the lions share but if Greece needs more meat on to join the war so to speak they may be given some of Macedonia as well to the previously mentioned northern epirus and also Albania, as said before may or may not get compensated with part of it, see map for possible locations) (pic from The Economist)
20170311_EUM903.png

3.Hungary (hungry can be incited with north Serbian land, populated by Hungarians as shown in the first of the fallowing maps, even if the allies dont promise the all of Hungarian minority lands they should not have a issue with majority and near majority regions see the second map below for what that region would look like) (first pic from wiki)(second pic from https://www.romanianhistoryandculture.com/hungaryromanianminority.htm)
Serbia_Hungarian_Population_Municipalities.PNG

hun193944.gif
 
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Here's how I imagine things could play out:
1. For things to go smoothly, we need a significantly earlier Győri Program, maybe starting from 1936.
2. During the Anschluss, Hungary have to make a very risky move. When Germany begins to occupy Austria, the Hungarian army also needs to move in and occupy Burgenland(Hungarian until Trianon) then demand an option on the referendum for Burgenlad to join Hungary. If things go well (let's assume) Burgenland chooses Hungary over Germany. The Hungarian army supervised the referendum there so it shouldn't be that hard.
3. Hungary should attempt to have the OTL First Vienna Award to be included in the Münich Agreement. This way, the revision is less seen as a solely German act of generosity, which this way wouldn't "indebt" the Hungarians to the Germans.
4. When the Germans invade Czechia and create the Czech-Moravian Protectorate, Hungary should also invade Slovakia alongside with the OTL invaded Subcarpathia. The Hungarians now might not be so submissive to the Germans, but still this might improve Hitler's view on the country, who was annoyed by the Hungarian reluctance to fight IOTL.
5. WWII breaks out, let things go similarly to OTL, except, that the Germans can't invade Poland from Slovakia. Also don't alienate the Allies by publicly congratulating Hitler for the successes on the Western Front.
6. Threaten war with Romania, Germany will be forced to interfere to maintain a secure flow of Romanian oil. OTL Second Vienna Award is TTL (first and last) Vienna Award. Join Tripartite Pact(Axis).
7. Have PM Teleki Pál not commit suicide, only resign. Participate in the invasion of Yugoslavia, but only after Croatia declared independence, so you technically don't break the eternal friendship treaty. Wallies break diplomatic relations, but do not declare war.
8. Get back Teleki as PM and do not join the war against the Soviets. Hungary would have to allow the German usage of their railway network though. From now on, play the Swede.
9. 1941-'42, due to the increasing difficulties, Germany demands Hungarian entry, but only some volunteers are sent. Also production of war products for Germany is expanded, mainly by German licenses. (Steal technology.)
10. As Soviets are closing by, the Germans begin to fear being cut from the Romanian oil fields. Plans to invade Hungary are initiated.
11. Operation Margarethe(the plan to invade Hungary), since it would require a significantly bigger army than IOTL is delayed because of the urgent need of troops against the Soviets.
12. In mid-May, Operation Margarethe begins, drawing Hungary into the war on the side of the Allies. The Hungarians were prepared for the German attack, which they were aware of. The additional years of infrastructure, arms industry and army building of the Győri Program will have a great significance from now on.
13. German offensive bogs down on Vág and Rába rivers to the West, in the Carpathians to the North and Northeast(Árpád Line). The auxiliary Romanian attack from South Transylvania is also stopped, while the Drava and Tisza rivers are preventing the Germans to launch successive offensives from the South.
14. After the failed German invasion of Hungary, D-Day and the current German defeats against the Soviets, the Romanians change sides a month earlier compared to OTL, which with the Hungarians simultaneously launch their offensive to occupy South Transylvania. As a result, almost all remaining Axis forces in the area are destroyed. The minimal Soviet involvement in the action is just icing on the cake.
15. As the war progresses, Hungary eventually occupies West Banat, Srem and Slavonia(the area by modern definition) and slowly begins to retake the lost West Danubian territories.
16. The war ends with Berlin falling to the Soviets, the WAllies liberating everything until the Elba, a Czech uprising(with Hungarian assistance in Moravia) succesfully clearing the German soldiers from Czechia and the Hungarians taking Vienna. The Germans unconditionally surrender.
17. Hungary at Potsdam and at the peace treaties gain all of its territories lost in WW1 with the exception of Croatia-Slavonia and Fiume, which become part of the new Communist Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia also claims Vojvodina and the Baranya Triangle back, which remains in Hungarian hands. A fierce rivalry, a mini-Cold War begins between the two. Hungary also gains the right to participate in the Allied occupation of Austria with its sector consisting of Lower Austria and Vienna(so basically the Soviet sector of OTL). Czechia is formed, which gives up its claims to Slovakia and Subcarpathia.
18. Miniscule border adjustions with Poland.
19. ITTL, the Soviet reach is somewhat smaller compared to OTL with East Germany, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Albania becoming their puppets by the beginning of the Cold War. Yugoslavia is also communist, but just like OTL, they become non-aligned. Hungary, Czechia and later the reformed Austria also become non-aligned.
20. In the early 60s, Horthy dies. With the significant internal support for monarhcy and with the Habsburgs no longer being viewed as a threat by external elements, the legitimist manage to invite Otto von Habsburg to the throne. With Otto's reign, a democratisation and liberalisation process also begins. Reconcilation with the minorities and a meaningful minority policy are also begin to be developed.
21. The Habsburg reinstallment summons loyalist zeal in the people of Austria and later also in Czechia(unexpectedly), and the Habsburgs are also reinstalled there. The three pivotal countries of the old danubian monarchy are once again under personal union, which also marks the start of a Central European development similar to the EEC( later EU) of Western Europe.
 
20. In the early 60s, Horthy dies. With the significant internal support for monarhcy and with the Habsburgs no longer being viewed as a threat by external elements, the legitimist manage to invite Otto von Habsburg to the throne. With Otto's reign, a democratisation and liberalisation process also begins. Reconcilation with the minorities and a meaningful minority policy are also begin to be developed.
21. The Habsburg reinstallment summons loyalist zeal in the people of Austria and later also in Czechia(unexpectedly), and the Habsburgs are also reinstalled there. The three pivotal countries of the old danubian monarchy are once again under personal union, which also marks the start of a Central European development similar to the EEC( later EU) of Western Europe.
I have 2 points/questions on the last 2 itams on your scenario, which is over all a fantastic post.
  • Does monarchist support in Hungary remain high because monarchists and fascists are typically political allies and so might expand over time especially with Horthy being the royal regent so even with fascism ending after the death of Horthy the fascists back the monarchists because because as previously mentioned they are typically political allies?
  • If the monarchists win out presumably with support from remaining fascists what role does the monarchy play in this new government because in theory depending on how strong the post Horthy authoritarian streak is the monarchy might be strong by the standards of modern country (Similar to the WW1 German king under Prussian constitutionalism, give or take?) but without the boost from a fascist political alliance I dont know if the Austrians and Czechs or Czechs would accept a strong monarchy. the best you can get is possibly Austria because it is there monarch and I dont know if the Hungarian occupation zone you mentioned allows for hungry in anyway to have a hand in shaping Austria post war politics. If the Czechs are also included would likely only accept a monarch with as much power as say the English monarchy.
 
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I have questions on these last 2 points in what is over all a fantastic post.
  • Does monarchist support in Hungary remain high because monarchists and fascists are typically political allies and so might expand over time especially with Horthy being the royal regent so even with fascism ending after the death of Horthy the fascists back the monarchists because because as previously mentioned they are typically political allies?
  • If the monarchists win out presumably with support from remaining fascists what role does the monarchy play in this new government because in theory depending on how strong the post Horthy authoritarian streak is the monarchy might be strong by the standards of modern country but without the boost from a fascist political alliance I dont think a Austrians and Czechs or Czechs would accept a strong monarchy. the closest you get is possibly Austria because it is there monarch and I dont know if the Hungarian occupation zone because hungry may have had a hand in shaping Austria post war politics. If the Czechs are also included which is the hardest part and if participating in this union would likely only accept a monarch with as much power as say the English monarchy.
Thanks, I'm glad you liked it.

1. Support for monarchy remains high due to several reasons. First of all, Hungary has no republican traditions, people generally doesn't feel the need to make the country a republic. Secondly, the not fascist, but still auocratic system favored the wealthy, most of which were of aristocratic origin in Hungary, who were traditional supporters of monarchy, and a significant portion of them was legitimist. Horthy, who becomes a national hero (again) at this point is yet another symbol of traditional and monarchic values. His person might prevent the Habsburg from returning before his death, but he also assures the continuity of the dominance of pro-monarchism. Last, but not least, the state form is monarchy, so why change it?

2. In this context, there are no fascist to count with. The support we need for a backing of monarchy is already present, which is the Austrian identity crisis. The Austrians wanted to separate themselves from the Germans as much as they just could. Viewing the Habsburg restoration in Hungary with a little boost of nostalgia from imperial times presents the Austrians a perfect solution for their self-determination issue. The idea of Habsburg rule is something the Austrians can cling onto and can connect with their history.

3. Getting the Czechs to embrace monarchism is kinda hard, yes I know, however there are several differences compared to the old realm. The common ruler will connect these countries only by his person, just like the current relation between the UK a Canada for example. This means that all three country can decide for themselves separately what kind of power do they want to give to the monarch. All three country is equal of each other. Another reason for Czechia to (re)instate Otto is no other than the Cold War. Right between the two blocs, the Czechs would most probably want to maintain their neutrality, but yet they still would seek some kind of securement. Forming a mini-bloc with Austria and Hungary seems the most logical one, not only for historical and geopolitical reasons, but also for economical reasons. The strenghtening relations could naturally lead to the restoration of the Habsburgs.

4. Like almost everything in this proposed sceniario, Hungary gaining an occupation zone is a bit far-fetched, but I doubt, that Hungary( and Czechia) would be happy with a Soviet zone there. This way, the communists would not only encircle Hungary almost entirely, but they even would have to have troops in Czechia for access, which would make Hungary's geopolitical situation a nightmare. The Wallies on the other hand, would not be bothered with a Hungarian occupation zone, since carving Austria only in three would enrage the Soviets even more, imo.

Sorry, my answer might be a bit chaotic, I was eating while I wrote it. I hope it's understandable though.
 
@Fehérvári
#2 seems difficult, Austria is not a conquered land like Czechoslowakia or Poland that can be used as bargaining chip.
The Germans will want something substantial to acquiesce to that. What can Hungary give at that moment?
 
@Fehérvári
#2 seems difficult, Austria is not a conquered land like Czechoslowakia or Poland that can be used as bargaining chip.
The Germans will want something substantial to acquiesce to that. What can Hungary give at that moment?
The Hungarians move in Burgenland first. They control the area, they write the rules there. What could the Germans do about it, declare war? Here, the Hungarians do the exact same thing as the Germans, occupy, then hide behind the justification of the referendum. The Germans can't refuse this to them, since then they would also discredit their own actions. Atleast, I think so.
 
Thanks, I'm glad you liked it.

1. Support for monarchy remains high due to several reasons. First of all, Hungary has no republican traditions, people generally doesn't feel the need to make the country a republic. Secondly, the not fascist, but still auocratic system favored the wealthy, most of which were of aristocratic origin in Hungary, who were traditional supporters of monarchy, and a significant portion of them was legitimist. Horthy, who becomes a national hero (again) at this point is yet another symbol of traditional and monarchic values. His person might prevent the Habsburg from returning before his death, but he also assures the continuity of the dominance of pro-monarchism. Last, but not least, the state form is monarchy, so why change it?

So is it more likely that we would see a pro-monarchy political coalition consisting primarily of 1. Monarchists, 2. Nationalists, 3. Conservatives and a mix of other smaller reactionary parties ruling the country? (from what you were saying it sounded like I was incorrect using the term fascists so the term nationalists might fit better for what I intended to convey as you are right that hungry was not a truly fascist country but as I understand it nationalists were common under Horthy's government even if they never supported fascism per say)
 
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The Hungarians move in Burgenland first. They control the area, they write the rules there. What could the Germans do about it, declare war? Here, the Hungarians do the exact same thing as the Germans, occupy, then hide behind the justification of the referendum. The Germans can't refuse this to them, since then they would also discredit their own actions. Atleast, I think so.
I very much enjoyed your 21 points. You raise some interesting possibilities. I still suspect that Stalin would have a say about an enlarged Hungary.
 
The Hungarians move in Burgenland first. They control the area, they write the rules there. What could the Germans do about it, declare war? Here, the Hungarians do the exact same thing as the Germans, occupy, then hide behind the justification of the referendum. The Germans can't refuse this to them, since then they would also discredit their own actions. Atleast, I think so.

What were the demographics of Burgenland like at the time?
 
What were the demographics of Burgenland like at the time?
Mostly Chatolic Austrian/Germans with significant Hungarian and Croatian minority. The main driving force for voting for Hungary would be the fear from the Nazis, who are also majority Protestant. Traditional ties to Hungary could also play a role, just like the presence of the Hungarian army. I also imagine an exodus of "unwanted elements"(from Nazi perspective) of Austria into Burgenland, which could also help the voting result, if they are allowed to vote.
 
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