Assuming Louis II survives Mohacs and has a heir after the battle, securing it from the Habsburgs. How would Hungary fare between the defeat of Mohacs in 1526 until... well... until the early 1800s? Would it develop as much as Germany?
Assuming Louis II survives Mohacs and has a heir after the battle, securing it from the Habsburgs. How would Hungary fare between the defeat of Mohacs in 1526 until... well... until the early 1800s? Would it develop as much as Germany?
Matthias' son was not someone who would continue father's policy. He was weak person, (and he was bastard). John Albert is more likely to became Matthias 2.0 if he won struggle over Hungarian crown-doable:either dowager Queen Beatrice supports him-something that would happen if Vladislaus consumated his first marriage so Beatrice can't hope to remain Queen of Hungary as Vladislaus' wife. With Beatrice's money John Albert would pay mercenaries from Black Army, who IOTL fought for his brother. Or Istvan Bathory does not switch sides (he initially supported John Albert, but switched to Vladislaus' camp).
But even better POD would be death of Matthias in 1471. Yes, Matthias was not the best thing that could happen to Hungary. If he died (classic horse riding accident) in 1471 (that year Casimir IV of Poland tried to impose his second son, also Casimir, on Hungarian throne, but Casimir was defeated by Matthias, dead Matthias would not prevail ovet Cas).
Why it would be better? Matthias made enemies everywhere, under Casimir Hungary would have peaceful relations with Bohemia and Poland. And-Black Army backlashed. Hungary could not afford to pay for it in the long run. Unpaid mercenaries were ravaging countryside and selling castles to Turks. After authocratic reign of Matthias magnates decided that they need weak ruler more than oxygen. Vladislaus was backlash caused by Matthias' harsh rule.
Wasn’t there a real risk of it going the “Polish way”?
In context “Polish way” meant not what Poland was in the XVI century but how the PLC ended up: a weak monarchy with the real power in the hands of the magnates interested in their own power and not the good of the country. Basically, Hungary pretty much went this way and ended up being split between the stronger neighbors."Polish way" developed way, way after XVIth century.
This. During 16th century Hungary was seen in Poland as example of country in disorder."Polish way" developed way, way after XVIth century. During the rule of both Vladislaus and Louis, Poland was more centralized state than their Hungary. It wasn't nearing total decline like Hungary was. IMHO, with Jagiellons surviving in male line, we don't know if the things which contributed to demise of PLC will develop. Free election was introduced only after the death of Sigismund II, while the last male Jagiellon died without male heirs. If Hungarian line of Jagiellon dynasty survived, they'd be undeniable heirs of Sigismund II. Without union of Lublin and with union with Hungary and Bohemia instead, Poland could go in many possible paths. Henrician articles wouldn't also exist with surviving Jagiellons. So if Louis II left heirs, I'd argue that there would be no "Polish way" known from OTL since almost every ingredient of it had it's roots in royal election in the form introduced by union of Lublin.
In context “Polish way” meant not what Poland was in the XVI century but how the PLC ended up: a weak monarchy with the real power in the hands of the magnates interested in their own power and not the good of the country. Basically, Hungary pretty much went this way and ended up being split between the stronger neighbors.
Taking into an account that by the time of Mohacs the Hungarian nobility managed to destroy the country’s defensive capacities, your doubts are neither here nor there. Of course, there were some differences with the PLC situation but result was the same: Hungary ceased to exist as an independent state.PLC was not only a weak monarchy with the power in hands of magnates - it was a weak monarchy with the power in hands of magnates, where no one saw the problem and blamed powerless King for failures instead. What's more PLC's nobility recognized this disorder as a pillar of "state ideology". I doubt if something similar will happen in Hungary without Mohacs. Even during the weak rule of Vladislaus Hungarian nobility accepted vivente rege election - something which PLC's nobility would never do. Even if the effect would be similar, causes would be completely different.
I’ve heard so many times on here that conquering Hungary was a mistake and the ottomans would have had more manpower available for richer regions (especially Italy) had they not managed it- perhaps an independent yet not hostile Hungary leads to an ottoman Sicily or Naples? Could they vassalise the northern city states?
John Albert getting the throne and solidifying royal power could make for an extremely interesting scenario. What I understand is that Turkish conquest was party influenced by the deplorable state of the Hungarian realm (easy pickings) and the danger of Habsburgs gaining power there. If Hungary is stable and out of the Habsburg sphere, could the Turks refrain from large campaigns against them? Of course raid would be a given, as is the occasional open war, but perhaps the Sultan would be content with Hungary as a buffer state, especially since they don't seem to be easy to conquer and keep? If so, what would be the main aim for the Ottoman state? Persia especially, or maybe further expansion into the Pontic Steppe? Central Asia? If Hungary is strong and remains as such, they will become exponentially harder to defeat and coupled with a presumed good relation with Poland, I can totally see the Turks focusing elsewhere. Should the Ottomans become weaker, I can see a strong Hungary trying to wrestle at least part of the Balkans from them, but that's way down the line.
I also think these would be the main focus, and also realistic. The Danubian Principalities are useful buffers(could even be a good arrangement for the Ottomans), and Belgrade provides a defensible border. The latter also assumes continuous maintaining and expansion of the southern fort system. That could be a huge deterrent.In a best case scenario they may get Belgrade back and get the Danubian Principalities as vassals, if there is a joint alliance with the PLC there.