Hungarians assassinate Franz Ferdinand!

Russia and Austria: feelings weren't so bad prior to Austria annexing Bosnia. Russia was supposed to support this, in exchange for Austria supporting Russian claims to military passage for naval units through the Bosporous. In OTL, Austria screwed Russia and hence poisoned the waters thoroughly.

Bright day
It is not our fault that the Brits almost got an heart attack out of it- they were behind the Russia. It was mostly a stupid misunderstanding on our part then deliberate malice.
 

Glen

Moderator
Bright day
It is not our fault that the Brits almost got an heart attack out of it- they were behind the Russia. It was mostly a stupid misunderstanding on our part then deliberate malice.

Noted.;):):rolleyes:
 
Furthermore I don't know how unified any Hungarian revolt would be. Many might be unhappy with the plans of Franz Ferdinard but the more conservative elements might be hostile to rebellion, recognising they were still onto a good thing. Also while appears to Hungarian nationalism might sway some a lot of Hungarians would be better off with reform and the power of the great aristocrats broken. Hence any rebellion might well be limited and fragmented.
Speaking of the Hungarian great aristocrats who IIRC still owned an absolutely insane amount of the land and wealth in the country might Karl or some of his advisors be open to the suggestion of cooking up some incriminating evidence even if they'd really only stood by and stayed neutral in the revolt? Seizing large swathes of the land and industry they owned would cut their power whilst massively increasing the crowns, plus plow even a quarter of it back into the country to improve the lot of the commoners and you'd buy yourself a lot of support I would have thought. The only problem is Karl doesn't look ruthless enough unfortunately.
 
The Austrian part of Austria-Hungary had full male suffrage and rather generous self-rule and the right of schooling in your own language etc. The Poles of Galizia were experiencing quite a revival, both economically and culturally at the time and seemed to host no animosity to the Austrians.

The Austrians could probably offer the same arrangement to the Slovaks, Romanians, Serbs and Croatians within the Hungarian part of the Empire. Combined with an offer of land reform and suffrage for the Hungarian commoners, I think they could crush the revolt rather quickly - parts of the Honved will make a stand and it will probably cost a lot of lives, but unless foreign powers intervene, I do not think the Austrians will have any problems crushing the Hungarian revolt - and look like the good guys doing it (coming with freedom of language, suffrage, land reform etc).

The Hungarians will probably have very little support. The Serbs became an international pariah when they killed their royal family in a coup - only Russia would really deal with them after that. The Hungarians have killed an Austrian royal and rose in nationalist revolt. The Russians will not want to deal with that - they did after all support the Austrians heavily in 1848 - nationalist revolts carry some dire consequences for them as well. The French have nothing against the Austrians really, they got beef with the Germans but this is no causus belli for them. Likewise the British. The Italians would probably want to try to use the oppurtunity, but they failed 1866 and without Germany distracted elsewhere, I don't think they'll be so stupid that they try to go after two Great Powers at the same time.

So Austria-Hungary gets to deal with its own mess, with German support, and becomes the Federated Empire of Austria-Hungary-Slavonia in the process.

At the time before ww1, Russia had the higherst growth in %, but Austria-Hungary was close and grew more in raw numbers (since they grew from a higher level). If there's no ww1, it is quite possible that radio, railroad, roads, industry and economical development cements the Empire - while some nationalists want to get out, most see the benefits of being in a thriving country with most of the freedoms they want and a decent army to protect them.
 
Wilhelm II would most likely offer whatever support Vienna wanted or needed: Franz Ferdinand was not simply another head of state and ally, but a FRIEND. In OTL he was very fond of the Royal couple.
 

Glen

Moderator
Speaking of the Hungarian great aristocrats who IIRC still owned an absolutely insane amount of the land and wealth in the country might Karl or some of his advisors be open to the suggestion of cooking up some incriminating evidence even if they'd really only stood by and stayed neutral in the revolt? Seizing large swathes of the land and industry they owned would cut their power whilst massively increasing the crowns, plus plow even a quarter of it back into the country to improve the lot of the commoners and you'd buy yourself a lot of support I would have thought. The only problem is Karl doesn't look ruthless enough unfortunately.

Maybe enough would have participated to make a sizable parcel. And if he felt his family had been threatened by the revolt, he might be in a rather ruthless mood.
 

Glen

Moderator
The Austrian part of Austria-Hungary had full male suffrage and rather generous self-rule and the right of schooling in your own language etc. The Poles of Galizia were experiencing quite a revival, both economically and culturally at the time and seemed to host no animosity to the Austrians.

The Austrians could probably offer the same arrangement to the Slovaks, Romanians, Serbs and Croatians within the Hungarian part of the Empire. Combined with an offer of land reform and suffrage for the Hungarian commoners, I think they could crush the revolt rather quickly - parts of the Honved will make a stand and it will probably cost a lot of lives, but unless foreign powers intervene, I do not think the Austrians will have any problems crushing the Hungarian revolt - and look like the good guys doing it (coming with freedom of language, suffrage, land reform etc).

The Hungarians will probably have very little support. The Serbs became an international pariah when they killed their royal family in a coup - only Russia would really deal with them after that. The Hungarians have killed an Austrian royal and rose in nationalist revolt. The Russians will not want to deal with that - they did after all support the Austrians heavily in 1848 - nationalist revolts carry some dire consequences for them as well. The French have nothing against the Austrians really, they got beef with the Germans but this is no causus belli for them. Likewise the British. The Italians would probably want to try to use the oppurtunity, but they failed 1866 and without Germany distracted elsewhere, I don't think they'll be so stupid that they try to go after two Great Powers at the same time.

So Austria-Hungary gets to deal with its own mess, with German support, and becomes the Federated Empire of Austria-Hungary-Slavonia in the process.

At the time before ww1, Russia had the higherst growth in %, but Austria-Hungary was close and grew more in raw numbers (since they grew from a higher level). If there's no ww1, it is quite possible that radio, railroad, roads, industry and economical development cements the Empire - while some nationalists want to get out, most see the benefits of being in a thriving country with most of the freedoms they want and a decent army to protect them.

Nice analysis and scenario.
 

Glen

Moderator
Wilhelm II would most likely offer whatever support Vienna wanted or needed: Franz Ferdinand was not simply another head of state and ally, but a FRIEND. In OTL he was very fond of the Royal couple.

Sympathetic at first, for sure. But later on I can see Karl drifting into the Entente camp, or at least a more neutral stance.
 
Maybe enough would have participated to make a sizable parcel. And if he felt his family had been threatened by the revolt, he might be in a rather ruthless mood.
A very good point. There's nothing quite like a large dose of self preservation to give one a whole new outlook on life.

A random idea I had a while back whilst mulling over possible reforms for Austria-Hungary was education. As von Adler mentioned if they offer the various nationalities schooling in their own language as a way of bringing them on side why not couple it with the mandatory teaching of the Austrian German language as well? Over a period of time Austrian German could become the lingua franca of the Empire and help bind it together. IIRC there are a number of countries nowadays that require business and dealing with the government to be able to be done in two languages, so having laws requiring the different areas of the Empire to offer these in both the loacal language and Austrian German shouldn't be too problematic I would have thought.
 
The Italians would probably want to try to use the oppurtunity, but they failed 1866 and without Germany distracted elsewhere, I don't think they'll be so stupid that they try to go after two Great Powers at the same time.

I agree. We have to remember that they had a defense alliance with Austria-Hungary in 1914. They could only weasel out OTL because Vienna declared war on Serbia.

Otherwise an optimistic asessement, but one I agree with. However, there shouldn't be a WW1-analogue in this timeline, at least for a few years of consolidation, so the empire can survive in the longer run.

@Simon
why not couple it with the mandatory teaching of the Austrian German language as well? Over a period of time Austrian German could become the lingua franca of the Empire and help bind it together.

Good idea. German already was the Lingua Franca of the monarchy. I am not sure whether learning it was already mandatory at least in higher schooling, but it wouldn't hurt to promote it.
 

Glen

Moderator
A very good point. There's nothing quite like a large dose of self preservation to give one a whole new outlook on life.

A random idea I had a while back whilst mulling over possible reforms for Austria-Hungary was education. As von Adler mentioned if they offer the various nationalities schooling in their own language as a way of bringing them on side why not couple it with the mandatory teaching of the Austrian German language as well? Over a period of time Austrian German could become the lingua franca of the Empire and help bind it together. IIRC there are a number of countries nowadays that require business and dealing with the government to be able to be done in two languages, so having laws requiring the different areas of the Empire to offer these in both the local language and Austrian German shouldn't be too problematic I would have thought.

I think this would be doable in the aftermath of a Hungarian nationalist assassinated royal and a failed Hungarian revolt (before that the Hungarians would likely have been up in arms about such a pro-German stance). It would make sense to have German as a lingua franca of the Empire and to also support local languages as a sop to the ethnicities of the empire.
 

Glen

Moderator
I agree. We have to remember that they had a defense alliance with Austria-Hungary in 1914. They could only weasel out OTL because Vienna declared war on Serbia.

Otherwise an optimistic asessement, but one I agree with. However, there shouldn't be a WW1-analogue in this timeline, at least for a few years of consolidation, so the empire can survive in the longer run.

@Simon


Good idea. German already was the Lingua Franca of the monarchy. I am not sure whether learning it was already mandatory at least in higher schooling, but it wouldn't hurt to promote it.

Yeah, I don't think a Hungarian assassin triggers WWI, so at least a delay. Now then, the Italian-Austrian alliance was a bit of a shotgun wedding brokered by Germany, but Karl is likely less threatening than Franz Ferdinand would have been to Italy.

Any you are right about the monarchy there!
 
So I assume we're moving eventually moving slowly towards some sort of 'federal' Austrian Empire - defence, foreign affairs, trade and Imperial Empire-wide taxes are reserved for the Imperial Government with local governmental units (Kingdoms perhaps?) being given somewhat limited self-government to run things internally and set a few local taxes like Wales and Scotland in the UK presently? That seems to be the only way keep things together and functioning whilst keeping the nationalists happy. Of course drawing the borders will be fun what with those islands of ethnic Germans dotted around and that large clump of ethnic Magyars in the east.

So if that's the case what sub-Imperial kingdoms are we going to see coming out of this? Austria, Hungary - gets demoted, and Bohemia seem to be the ones that are certainly guarenteed this. Here's a pretty good map of the different nationalities within the Empire. If you wanted to give every major nationality a sub-kingdom that'd mean adding ones for the Slovaks, the Ruthenians, and Romanians. Giving one to the Poles in Galicia is likely to piss off the Russians but since Romania wont be best pleased if you creat a sub-kingdom of Transylvania either that might not be too bad. The Italian dominated lands look too small and fragmented to me so they probably just get screwed. The real question becomes what do you do with the Croats and Serbs in the Balkans.
 

Glen

Moderator
So I assume we're moving eventually moving slowly towards some sort of 'federal' Austrian Empire - defence, foreign affairs, trade and Imperial Empire-wide taxes are reserved for the Imperial Government with local governmental units (Kingdoms perhaps?) being given somewhat limited self-government to run things internally and set a few local taxes like Wales and Scotland in the UK presently?

More or less yes.

That seems to be the only way keep things together and functioning whilst keeping the nationalists happy. Of course drawing the borders will be fun what with those islands of ethnic Germans dotted around and that large clump of ethnic Magyars in the east.

The smaller enclaves of Germans will have some local educational and language rights, but if we go with the idea that German will be taught as a lingua franca as well as local languages, then they aren't in bad shape.

The Magyars have been a bit humbled for the short term, for the longer term who can say?

So if that's the case what sub-Imperial kingdoms are we going to see coming out of this? Austria, Hungary - gets demoted, and Bohemia seem to be the ones that are certainly guaranteed this. Here's a pretty good map of the different nationalities within the Empire. If you wanted to give every major nationality a sub-kingdom that'd mean adding ones for the Slovaks, the Ruthenians, and Romanians. Giving one to the Poles in Galicia is likely to piss off the Russians but since Romania won't be best pleased if you create a sub-kingdom of Transylvania either that might not be too bad. The Italian dominated lands look too small and fragmented to me so they probably just get screwed. The real question becomes what do you do with the Croats and Serbs in the Balkans.[/QUOTE]

I think only the largest most homogenous areas would get sub-kingdom status, with the others being federal districts. The prestige of a sub-kingdom would be nice, but really the power is in being a federal district, which should placate most of those others.
 
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