Hungarian-Romanian war in 1988

[Fehérvári]

The infamous village destroyings in Romania of this time period caused a significant tension between Hungary and Romania, because of its ethnic cleansing nature against the ethnic minorites in throughout the country. The idea of war however was ultimately dropped by the Hungarian government.

What if the war actually broke out between these two countries? Who would have won? What would have been the peace terms? How would the Soviet Union react? How would the world react?
Share with me your thoughts!

Edit: I changed "Hungarian minorities in Transylvania" to "ethnic minorites throughout the country(Romania)"

 

[CaliGuy]

Soviet troops were still stationed in Hungary back then, correct? If so, I could see the Soviet Union attempting to implement regime change in Budapest in such a scenario.

 

[Fehérvári]

Soviet troops were still stationed in Hungary back then, correct? If so, I could see the Soviet Union attempting to implement regime change in Budapest in such a scenario.

Yes, they were, but didn't Romania alienated the Soviet Union with it's independent policies though? If I recall it correctly, some years earlier the Soviets even tried to encourage Kádár to attack Romania.

 

[CaliGuy]

Yes, they were, but didn't Romania alienated the Soviet Union with it's independent policies though?

Yes, they possibly did; however, Romania never went as far as actually ending its membership in the Warsaw Pact. Thus, I am unsure just how bad Soviet-Romanian relations actually were during this time.

If I recall it correctly, some years earlier the Soviets even tried to encourage Kádár to attack Romania.

Do you have a source for that? Indeed, it would certainly be interesting if true.

Also, out of curiosity--what exactly would the Hungarian war aims be in such a war? To restore the 1941 Romanian-Hungarian border?

 

[Fehérvári]

Yes, they possibly did; however, Romania never went as far as actually ending its membership in the Warsaw Pact. Thus, I am unsure just how bad Soviet-Romanian relations actually were during this time.



Do you have a source for that? Indeed, it would certainly be interesting if true.

Also, out of curiosity--what exactly would the Hungarian war aims be in such a war? To restore the 1941 Romanian-Hungarian border?

Sorry, I couldn't find the source right now.

The Hungarian war aims is an interesting topic. It depends heavily on the government's domestic situation, but if the Hungarians are succesful the Hungarians might try to push for bigger and bigger aims. (cease the village destroying-->autonomy for Hungarian populated areas-->annexation of Hungarian populated areas near the borders and autonomy for other Hungarians-->annexation of all Hungarian populated lands and the areas between them-->annexation of Transylvania except Banat-->annexation of whole Transylvania-->annexation of whole Transylvania and autonomy to the Csángós) Creating a cantonised independent Transylvania is among the options as well. It all depends on military successes.

Apropos, does someone have info regarding the Hungarian and Romanian military situation in the late eighties?

 

[The Wooksta!]

This is kind of still rumbling on. I work with a Romanian and he's kicked off a few times about the way Hungarians are trying to slowly take over his country. He's quite young too - 24.

 

[CaliGuy]

Sorry, I couldn't find the source right now.

Well, please tell me if you'll find it later.

The Hungarian war aims is an interesting topic. It depends heavily on the government's domestic situation, but if the Hungarians are succesful the Hungarians might try to push for bigger and bigger aims. (cease the village destroying-->autonomy for Hungarian populated areas-->annexation of Hungarian populated areas near the borders and autonomy for other Hungarians-->annexation of all Hungarian populated lands and the areas between them-->annexation of Transylvania except Banat-->annexation of whole Transylvania-->annexation of whole Transylvania and autonomy to the Csángós) Creating a cantonised independent Transylvania is among the options as well. It all depends on military successes.

Wouldn't changing borders by force be universally frowned upon in Europe and worldwide during this time, though?

 

[Zagan]

The infamous village destroyings in Romania of this time period caused a significant tension between Hungary and Romania, because of its ethnic cleansing nature against the Hungarian minorites in Transylvania.

The bolded part is blatantly false and insulting towards Romania and its People. The destruction of villages (one of Ceaușescu's lunacies) was perpetrated everywhere in Romania, including in areas with 100% Romanian ethnic population. You should issue an apology and remove the offending text as soon as possible.

 

[bolhabela]

The bolded part is blatantly false and insulting towards Romania and its People. The destruction of villages (one of Ceaușescu's lunacies) was perpetrated everywhere in Romania, including in areas with 100% Romanian ethnic population. You should issue an apology and remove the offending text as soon as possible.

Fehérvári presented his opinion on the issue. In my opinion he is wrong but only partially. During communism there where a lot of village destruction. Some because of a megalomaniac project and others for land redistribution. But all across Romania this destructions happened. It was not aimed at the hungarian minority particulary. It happened to the bulgarians, turks, germans and serbs to. But you can bet that the homogenization of the population was a primary goal.

 

[BeardedHoplite]

The bolded part is blatantly false and insulting towards Romania and its People. The destruction of villages (one of Ceaușescu's lunacies) was perpetrated everywhere in Romania, including in areas with 100% Romanian ethnic population. You should issue an apology and remove the offending text as soon as possible.

Rumanian nationalist spotted.

But there was a book in the mid 90s called "Future Conflicts" that covered such a scenario. The author predicted a Hungarian victory, but the end result was greater autonomy for Transylvania, and not any territory change

 

[Zagan]

Rumanian

Please refrain from using that insulting word for the Romanians. Thank you.

The meaning of the initially synonym words Romanian (Român) and Rumanian (Rumân) had diverged in the 19th century, with Rumân keeping the pejorative sense of uncultivated, poor landless peasant / serf. This is why the Romanian state insisted to be internationally called Romania instead of the obsolete (and insulting) Rumania.

 

[Fehérvári]

The bolded part is blatantly false and insulting towards Romania and its People. The destruction of villages (one of Ceaușescu's lunacies) was perpetrated everywhere in Romania, including in areas with 100% Romanian ethnic population. You should issue an apology and remove the offending text as soon as possible.

I changed it, be happy.

 

[wtw]

It would be interesting in that, that part of Romania is very mountainous and it might be similar to what happened in the former Yugoslavia along those lines. My guess unless the Hungarians have better weapons the Romanians win due to numbers.

 

[Iron Chariot]

The bolded part is blatantly false and insulting towards Romania and its People. The destruction of villages (one of Ceaușescu's lunacies) was perpetrated everywhere in Romania, including in areas with 100% Romanian ethnic population. You should issue an apology and remove the offending text as soon as possible.

The Romanian people must be very insecure if they feel collectively attacked because someone on the Internet said something incorrect about a single event in their past. Oh wait, they aren't, it's just one guy posturing and getting offended on behalf of everyone in his country for no reason... like, you could have just corrected the statement, but no, you had to start a nationalist war...

As for the topic, how exactly does this war work out? They aren't in a vacuum. Both nations are in the Warsaw Pact, and Romania is the one that was more supported by the US, so outside support isn't coming. I'm not sure about their militaries, but I'd wager Romania's was stronger at that point too. So Hungary gets zero support and the ire of the Soviet Union, which obviously doesn't want the Comecon to devour itself and will take action against whichever party instigated it. (And then maybe depose Ceausescu too, if he's deemed too much of a liability.) Why would Hungary risk a war?

 

[Fehérvári]

As for the topic, how exactly does this war work out? They aren't in a vacuum. Both nations are in the Warsaw Pact, and Romania is the one that was more supported by the US, so outside support isn't coming. I'm not sure about their militaries, but I'd wager Romania's was stronger at that point too. So Hungary gets zero support and the ire of the Soviet Union, which obviously doesn't want the Comecon to devour itself and will take action against whichever party instigated it. (And then maybe depose Ceausescu too, if he's deemed too much of a liability.) Why would Hungary risk a war?

The pressure from the folk might a good reason, but for example playing some nationalistic tones could make it easier for the current leadership to save themselves into the new era, when the system-change comes (which is imo inevitable at this point)

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Soviets will have no such dissent in the Pact. They will crack down hard, and Czechoslovakia will be happy to provide support for it as a reverse for 1968. Poles would object but would have no power to do anything. Hungary would be on her own with Soviet armies already inside her borders. The scenario is ASB and only good for riling up people in flame wars.

 

[Arkenfolm]

It would be interesting in that, that part of Romania is very mountainous and it might be similar to what happened in the former Yugoslavia along those lines. My guess unless the Hungarians have better weapons the Romanians win due to numbers.

The Romanians also have a military which in 1988 was about a year out from playing a key role in the overthrow of their leader.

 

[Cryptic]

I am thinking of a conflict very similar to the Russo- Ukrainian war. Maybe:

- Ceausescu's culture destroying "renovation" plans get even more focused on ethnic Hungarian towns. There is a flash point at a historic church slated to be demolished to make room for a workers educational center.

- A Hungarian mob, including some people armed with hunting weapons, and more ominously for the Regime, also including some local police men sympathetic the cause drives the construction crew out and seizes control of the village. Two pro Regime ethnic Romanian police officers are killed while surveilling the village. C's response is slow as his power is waning. The unrest spreads to other towns and villages. Infrastructure is seized and road blocks established.

- Though most militants are locals, there are reports of Hungarian volunteers- some armed with military weapons crossing the border. The militants have mixed demands. Some want unification with Hungary proper, others want local autonomy and all want C gone.

- Some militants tend to equate ethnic Romanians and being pro C and the rapidly escalating conflict takes an ethnic turn. C rounds up all his reliable military and police units (ironically, the anti-Romanian spins shown by some of the militants allows C to find reliable units). C also arms ethnic Romanian civilians in the area.

-Several armored columns move towards the separatist areas. Fighting breaks out and discipline in some Romanian units breaks down. The pacification mission operation takes on an anti-Hungarian ethnic / cultural cleansing spin with some units. Civilian militias also have anti Hungarian spins.

- The Hungarian military says that it will not allow ethnic cleansing of Hungarians in the area, nor will it permit cultural cleansing via "renovation". C gets pressured by Moscow. Promises to reign in his security units- though he has little control over some. Also promises to end the pacification mission ASAP- well, once central govt control is re-established. No compromise, however, is possible on "renovation" plans. In fact, they are accelerated.

- The Hungarian Army crosses the border and direct clashes occur with Romanian units. Militias on both sides spiral out of control. Things are getting ugly fast…. .

 

[Dementor]

I don't see how such a war could be possible. There are substantial Soviet troops in Hungary and they're likely to intervene. Also likely is Soviet pressure to remove the members of the government who were trying to start a war. Now, if this happened in 1989, it might be possible since the Soviet army was already planning to withdraw at this point.

Please refrain from using that insulting word for the Romanians. Thank you.

The meaning of the initially synonym words Romanian (Român) and Rumanian (Rumân) had diverged in the 19th century, with Rumân keeping the pejorative sense of uncultivated, poor landless peasant / serf. This is why the Romanian state insisted to be internationally called Romania instead of the obsolete (and insulting) Rumania.

So it turns out that Bulgarians insult Romanians every time we talk about them (and not only us, either - this is the form used in nearly all other Slavic languages, Albanian, Greek, the Baltic languages and Estonian, just to name the major European languages). At least I hope we can plead some leniency to the fact that our pronunciation of the second vowel is quite close to the Romanian

 

[fockewulf]

In 1988 not possible, but in 1990 there was a chance that things could have escalated out of control. Some violent clashes occurred between the two ethnic groups in the town of Targu Mures in the period between 19 and 21 of march 1990. 6 died and about 300 were injured. It was a lot of disinformation, with both sides blaming the other. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_clashes_of_Târgu_Mureș If the romanian authorities would have responded like those in the former Yugoslavia, a war between Romania an Hungary might have happened. Unlike today, in 1990 the Romanian army had about 400000 conscripts, most poorly trained and used almost as slave labor. There were a few elite units like the mountain hunters, paratroopers and some special security forces. Some 400 airplanes, MiG 21, 23 and 29, IAR 93 and 99, not all operational and some tactical missiles in the SCUD category. On paper, there were about 3500 tanks T-55, TR-580, TR 85 and a few T-72 and some 2000 APC and IFV like the BMP and BTR. I have no idea what the hungarian army had. Together with the upcoming war in Yugoslavia, who knows what might have happened.