Hung parliament in the 1992 UK election

Major might make a government of national unity with smith and ashdown.

Who is Smith? Also, IMO, any coalition with the Liberal Democrats would end with Black Wednesday, the Liberal Democrats would leave it, there would be a new election, and Labour would win that one.
 
Major might make a government of national unity with smith and ashdown.
Not happening. Governments of national unity only happen in times of real crisis, like world wars or depressions. The government having no majority isn't a good enough reason to create one, especially if both major parties can create a viable government just by working with the Lib Dems.
because the concern over black monday, divorced other political concerns.
Do you mean 'Black Wednesday', which didn't happen until five months after the 1992 election?
 
IMO, Major would have been no confidenced, once Black Wednesday happened. Then new elections would have occurred which Labour would have won, though, not necessarily, with a majority as overwhelming as the one of our timeline's 1996 elections. Any other ideas?
 
There would have been a Labour-Liberal Democrat pact of some kind had the numbers been there for it. On the BBC's exit poll figures (Con 301, Lab 298, LD ~20) the numbers wouldn't have been there for a continuation of the Tory government, although it is questionable as to how long the left-of-center government would have lasted, and how Black Wednesday would have affected it.
 
IMO, Major would have been no confidenced, once Black Wednesday happened. Then new elections would have occurred which Labour would have won, though, not necessarily, with a majority as overwhelming as the one of our timeline's 1996 elections. Any other ideas?
What TL are you in??

In my timeline it was 1997 that Labour came to power.
 
If the Tories lose their majority and especially if the seat numbers are relatively equal, the Lib Dem’s would prefer to work with Kinnock so as not to be seen as propping up the Tories once they’ve lost their majority.
 
Sorry for replying again after so long but I'd like to present a more specific scenario: There is a hung parlament but the Tories get enough seats for an agreement with the Ulster Unionists to work.
In such a scenario, is Major no confidenced after Black Wednesday?
If so, who leads Labour to victory in the next elections and, thus, becomes PM?
 
Lib-Lab Pact/Coalition for a shaky term in office that will be mired by Black Wednesday and the mid-90s malaise which IOTL hurt the Conservative talking point of economic credibility. ITTL, it only goes to prove the 1992 Tory campaign that warned of a Labour Government wrecking the economy to be correct. Winning the 1992 election was actually pretty terrible for the Conservatives, a narrow loss would have probably been far better in the long run since that was what they were expecting and a "we told you so" campaign in 1997 would be pretty effective if Black Wednesday still happens. The economic issues are only compounded by the inevitably shaky nature of the coalition/pact which could well bring the Lib-Dems close to breaking away on multiple occasions as the going gets tough.

The Conservatives win in 1997 or possibly sooner (depending on their numbers in parliament if it comes to a vote of no confidence) and British politics are solidified into a dominant-party system like OTL Canada, with the Conservatives taking the lead and Labour mired by the poor record of their first chance to govern in 13 years.
 
Lib-Lab Pact/Coalition for a shaky term in office that will be mired by Black Wednesday and the mid-90s malaise which IOTL hurt the Conservative talking point of economic credibility. ITTL, it only goes to prove the 1992 Tory campaign that warned of a Labour Government wrecking the economy to be correct. Winning the 1992 election was actually pretty terrible for the Conservatives, a narrow loss would have probably been far better in the long run since that was what they were expecting and a "we told you so" campaign in 1997 would be pretty effective if Black Wednesday still happens. The economic issues are only compounded by the inevitably shaky nature of the coalition/pact which could well bring the Lib-Dems close to breaking away on multiple occasions as the going gets tough.

The Conservatives win in 1997 or possibly sooner (depending on their numbers in parliament if it comes to a vote of no confidence) and British politics are solidified into a dominant-party system like OTL Canada, with the Conservatives taking the lead and Labour mired by the poor record of their first chance to govern in 13 years.

What about my, other, more specific, scenario?
 
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Thomas1195

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The Conservatives win in 1997 or possibly sooner (depending on their numbers in parliament if it comes to a vote of no confidence) and British politics are solidified into a dominant-party system like OTL Canada, with the Conservatives taking the lead and Labour mired by the poor record of their first chance to govern in 13 years.
And then Iraq War and Financial Crisis would fall on them. Tories' handling of the GFC would not funny.
 
Sorry for replying again after so long but I'd like to present a more specific scenario: There is a hung parlament but the Tories get enough seats for an agreement with the Ulster Unionists to work.
In such a scenario, is Major no confidenced after Black Wednesday?
If so, who leads Labour to victory in the next elections and, thus, becomes PM?
I'm unsure the UUP would pull the plug on confidence and supply arrangements because of Black Wednesday. As we are currently seeing with the DUP, propping up the government gives them a huge amount of influence that they will be extremely reluctant to throw away.

But if they did, it's fairly clear that John Smith would become the next Labour PM, given that he had already been in placed for two months when Black Wednesday happened.
Would trouble in the uk, perhaps slow down the single currency move in the rest of Europe?
Doubtful. The economic fallout wouldn't really be much worse than OTL.
 
In a Tory-UUP confidence-and-supply deal scenario, then the government would likely have fallen sometime prior to 1997 due to the vast amount of by-election defeats and defections that occurred in OTL.
 
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