Ricardolindo
Banned
What if the polls were more accurate and the 1992 UK election resulted in a hung parliament?
Major might make a government of national unity with smith and ashdown.
john smith Blair's predecessor as the labor head.
Not happening. Governments of national unity only happen in times of real crisis, like world wars or depressions. The government having no majority isn't a good enough reason to create one, especially if both major parties can create a viable government just by working with the Lib Dems.Major might make a government of national unity with smith and ashdown.
Do you mean 'Black Wednesday', which didn't happen until five months after the 1992 election?because the concern over black monday, divorced other political concerns.
What TL are you in??IMO, Major would have been no confidenced, once Black Wednesday happened. Then new elections would have occurred which Labour would have won, though, not necessarily, with a majority as overwhelming as the one of our timeline's 1996 elections. Any other ideas?
What TL are you in??
In my timeline it was 1997 that Labour came to power.
Lib-Lab Pact/Coalition for a shaky term in office that will be mired by Black Wednesday and the mid-90s malaise which IOTL hurt the Conservative talking point of economic credibility. ITTL, it only goes to prove the 1992 Tory campaign that warned of a Labour Government wrecking the economy to be correct. Winning the 1992 election was actually pretty terrible for the Conservatives, a narrow loss would have probably been far better in the long run since that was what they were expecting and a "we told you so" campaign in 1997 would be pretty effective if Black Wednesday still happens. The economic issues are only compounded by the inevitably shaky nature of the coalition/pact which could well bring the Lib-Dems close to breaking away on multiple occasions as the going gets tough.
The Conservatives win in 1997 or possibly sooner (depending on their numbers in parliament if it comes to a vote of no confidence) and British politics are solidified into a dominant-party system like OTL Canada, with the Conservatives taking the lead and Labour mired by the poor record of their first chance to govern in 13 years.
And then Iraq War and Financial Crisis would fall on them. Tories' handling of the GFC would not funny.The Conservatives win in 1997 or possibly sooner (depending on their numbers in parliament if it comes to a vote of no confidence) and British politics are solidified into a dominant-party system like OTL Canada, with the Conservatives taking the lead and Labour mired by the poor record of their first chance to govern in 13 years.
I'm unsure the UUP would pull the plug on confidence and supply arrangements because of Black Wednesday. As we are currently seeing with the DUP, propping up the government gives them a huge amount of influence that they will be extremely reluctant to throw away.Sorry for replying again after so long but I'd like to present a more specific scenario: There is a hung parlament but the Tories get enough seats for an agreement with the Ulster Unionists to work.
In such a scenario, is Major no confidenced after Black Wednesday?
If so, who leads Labour to victory in the next elections and, thus, becomes PM?
Doubtful. The economic fallout wouldn't really be much worse than OTL.Would trouble in the uk, perhaps slow down the single currency move in the rest of Europe?