Hung parliament in 1992 consequences

In the 1992 general election John Major unexpectedly won, but what if he had won say 25 seats less either due to the tories messing up or labour doing better. Would the tories try to rule as a minority government or would they go for an alliance with the lib dems? If they went for an alliance with the lib dems would they be likely to sink further at the next election assuming the coalition lasts at least 2 years
 
I don't think there was much chance of a Con / Lib coalition. Paddy Ashcroft was closer to Labour than the Tories, so a Lib /Lab coalition or confidence and supply arrangement would be more likely but only if the two parties combined could command a majority.

Suppose that the Tories soldier on as a minority government - Black Wedneday would still happen and the UK would still be forced out of the ERM. Labour (by that time led by John Smith) would force a vote of no-confidence which the Tories may well have lost.

In the ensuing election, the likliest outcome is a Labour win with a working majority, although I'm not convinced that it would be the landslide that Blair delivered in 1997.

Talking of Blair - if Labour won an election in 1993 does he even become leader of the Labour Party. Would the leadership pass to Gordon Brown assuming that Smith dies at the same time as he did in OTL?

As for the Tories, Major would resign the leadership after losing the elction - Hesseltine for successor?
 
The Conservatives losing 25 extra seats is a difficult figure as Labour and the Liberal Democrats can't form a coalition together yet the Conservatives also can't get a majority with the Ulster Unionists (what they had to rely on after February 1997 in OTL), I'd predict a Conservative minority Government for a few months before another election in October.
 
The Tories winning 25 fewer seats would leave them as the largest party in a hung parliament, a simelar position to the one they found themselves in post 2010 in OTL.

That probably rules out a minority government with DUP support alone, so Major probably needs supply and confidence from the Libs at the very least.

Would Major and Ashdown be amenable to the idea of a full coalition? I suspect that Major would be, given his OTL views on the Coalition-and I think Ashdown would also be open to entertaining the idea. Whether Major and Ashdown could get their respective parties in line is another matter-I'm not sure if the Lib Dems could be persuaded-the one big difference between 1992 TTL and 2010 OTL is that in 1992 the Tories had been the governing party for the past 13 years. Furthermore, Thatcher's supporters would be reluctant at best to back a coalition with a left-of-centre party after 13 years of complete dominance.

Still, I don't see Ashdown backing Kinnock if Labour aren't the largest party, so I think some sort of supply-and confidence deal is the most likely outcome, with the implicit understanding there would be another election 18 months down the line at the latest. This, of course, would be bad news for the Conservatives-and for Major in particular.

Black Wednesday will happen on schedule and Major will be no-confidenced, so there will be another election in October/November, which Labour will win with a comfortable majority, though not a 1997-esc one.

Now to Labour-does Kinnock remain leader post July 1992 in these circumstances? On one hand, it is likely there will be another election in the very near future, so would changing leaders at this point help? On the other hand though Kinnock would still be seen as having snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as Labour would still have been the favourites to be the largest party. Their's also Kinnock's personal views to consider-having lost 2 elections, did he have the stomach for a third election campaign as leader? I can see it going either way really, but I've got no doubts that either Kinnock or Smith will be PM by the end of 1992.

I'm not sure who is Tory opposition leader after they lose the late 92 election. Hesser probably won't be leader given his bagage, perhaps Hurd could be in with a shot though?
 
How plausible is Malcolm Rifkind?

It'd be a three horse race between Michael Heseltine, Peter Lilley and Malcolm Rifkind, Heseltine has the problem of having a good portion of the party hating him because he "stabbed Thatcher in the back" while Lilley faces problems from the Heathites due to his closeness with the Thatcherites while Rifkind may be a compromise candidate between the Thatcherites and the "wets".

If Rifkind wins then Lilley may become Shadow Chancellor while Heseltine gets Deputy Leader along with a mid-level Shadow portfolio, Rifkind's leadership depends on how far he can keep the party satisfied. He could try a mixture of mild Euroscepticism and reforming the party which could succeed if the party is in the mood to work together but it could also go sideways if divisions get too heavy and Rifkind becomes too "wet" for the Thatcherites and too Thatcherite for the "wets".
 
I don't think there was much chance of a Con / Lib coalition. Paddy Ashcroft was closer to Labour than the Tories, so a Lib /Lab coalition or confidence and supply arrangement would be more likely but only if the two parties combined could command a majority.

Suppose that the Tories soldier on as a minority government - Black Wedneday would still happen and the UK would still be forced out of the ERM. Labour (by that time led by John Smith) would force a vote of no-confidence which the Tories may well have lost.

In the ensuing election, the likliest outcome is a Labour win with a working majority, although I'm not convinced that it would be the landslide that Blair delivered in 1997.

Talking of Blair - if Labour won an election in 1993 does he even become leader of the Labour Party. Would the leadership pass to Gordon Brown assuming that Smith dies at the same time as he did in OTL?

As for the Tories, Major would resign the leadership after losing the elction - Hesseltine for successor?



In all likelihood a Lib-Lab pact would be the most likely outcome.

Kinnock would be PM and would probably have picked Smith as Chancellor with Ashdown as Deputy PM and maybe Foreign Secretary.
 
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