Humphrey wins in 1968

MrHola

Banned
So, let's assume that HHH managed to win the elections of '68. Perhaps the Democrat Convention is less chaotic or Nixon get's involved in a scandal which is heavy enough to ruin his chances to become President.

Hubert Humphrey and Edmund Muskie win.

I assume that relations with the PRC will remain very poor and a withdrawal from Vietnam still happens, only this time, the South Vietnamese are actually informed that the US is withdrawing. Van Thieu probably makes a ruckus, accusing the US of selling him out. I could see a US-supported coup forcing Van Thieu out of office and replacing him with Duong Van Minh(?).

Taiwan probably keeps it's Security Council seat in the UN.

I assume that HHH loses against Ronald Reagan in 1972. But who would be Reagan's running mate? Gerald Ford? Richard Schweiker?

What kind of people would serve in HHH's Cabinet?
 
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It's an intriguing question.

The problem is that Humphrey during the election campaign was so overshadowed by what Johnson was forcing him to say on the war that we don't really know his actual position.

Given that Nixon's plan was pretty much the same as RFK's plan, I'm not entirely sure what Humphrey does. The bombing halt, to be sure, to discuss terms, but beyond that? I don't know. There will, however, almost certainly not be the Cambodian Campaign (and hence, quite probably, no Khmer Rouge).

Given the American public and their inability to handle stalemated wars (Korea, Vietnam, Iraq) if it requires ongoing commitment I can't imagine this going on forever, but it will certainly go as long as Nixon's did and then Humphrey is beaten by Reagan in 1972.

However given that Nixon got a deal (that Thieu disliked) I believe that Humphrey could get a deal, in which case sometime in 1971 or '72 peace is at hand. This depends on several factors: does Humphrey pull out fast, or support about as much as Nixon? Are there North Vietnamese troops on South Vietnamese soil? (In which case the peace deal fails.) Etc….

  • Best case: uneasy peace deal with South Vietnam being intact, but covered by American airpower sometime in 1972.
  • Worst case: South Vietnam falls before 1972
  • Middle case: OTL 1972.


I agree on Taiwan—nobody but Nixon (including other Republicans) was likely to sell the ROC down the river.


The 1972 election campaign is probably Humphrey Vs. Reagan. I imagine that Reagan wins, and his VP could be just about anybody (what about General Abrams if South Vietnam falls?), frankly.

What does Reagan do? If Viet Nam is going well, of even just ok, he stays the course—strong airpower and financial assistance, and perhaps a greater effort to get the South Vietnamese forces up to snuff.

This just means South Viet Nam falls in 1976 or later (unless it fell in 1972 or so) since I can't see a peace treaty staying peaceful, or the Americans willing to keep committing vast airpower resources to support the South Vietnamese.
 

MrHola

Banned
And what about the Yom Kippur War in 1973? And do I assume correctly that Reagan would be a two-termer?
I think that Ted Kennedy/Loyd Bentsen would win in 1980. I also think that a no ''China in the Security Council'' situation could lead to a longer tenure for UN SecGen Kurt Waldheim, does that have any notable effects?
 
Before I respond, the huge change with Humphrey/Reagan instead of Nixon: entitlements.

Nixon codified entitlements and made it close to impossible to balance the budget without an economic boom and high tax receipts.

No Nixon, no entitlements—Humphrey is concerned with Viet Nam more than Nixon was OTL, and as a liberal Democrat he can't get it through Congress.

Reagan would veto.

No butterflies right away, but later on the government's finances should be in far better shape.

And what about the Yom Kippur War in 1973?

Encourage nuclear power development? As a conservative Republican Reagan has less opportunities to do interesting things (rail, gas tax, etc…) than a Democrat.

And do I assume correctly that Reagan would be a two-termer?

Hmm. That actually depends. The economic situation was not good in the early 1970s, and Viet Nam remains a wildcard. I'd say Reagan's favoured, but not for sure.

I think that Ted Kennedy/Lloyd Bentsen would win in 1980.

It depends on the Republican, and there are other VP alternatives (especially given butterflies) and OTL Kennedy ran a horrible campaign in 1980, so nothing is for certain.

But sure, Kennedy is the frontrunner. Also Jerry Brown, assuming he gets elected Governor of California in the ATL and probably some of the people who ran in 1976 or 1984 OTL.

I also think that a no ''China in the Security Council'' situation could lead to a longer tenure for UN SecGen Kurt Waldheim, does that have any notable effects?

I honestly have no idea. Did he guide Austria though anything major? Did his UN successor do anything? If so, then butterflies perhaps.
 

MrHola

Banned
But what do you think of the US-sponsored Coup that removes Van Thieu and installs Duong Van Minh? Plausible?

If so, does that have any effects on South Vietnam?
 
But what do you think of the US-sponsored Coup that removes Van Thieu and installs Duong Van Minh? Plausible?

If so, does that have any effects on South Vietnam?

I'm not sure if Humphrey's that kind of guy. If he does do it, it's over the peace treaty and it's because North Vietnamese troops occupy (say) two northern provinces of South Vietnam and Thieu won't agree to a troops-in-place agreement (as per OTL).

The effects? Well unless Minh is radically more competent, fixes the government's corruption problem, joins the Viet Cong in a coalition government, and gears up the Army… South Vietnam looks about the same as it looked with Thieu, just with a temporary peace treaty akin to the 1973 one IOTL. We all know how that peace treaty ended, after all.
 

MrHola

Banned
In his second attempt at the Presidency, Richard Nixon came closer in terms of Electoral Votes than he did last time, in 1960. The Democrats accused Nixon of voter fraud in several states.

After publicly accusing the Democratic Party of conspiring to deny him the Presidency in both 1960 and 1968, public opinion of Nixon dropped and the Republican leadership began to distance themselves from Nixon. Legal action by Nixon lead to nothing and Hubert Humphrey was sworn in as President on January 20, 1969.

Democratic: Humphrey/Muskie - 269 Electoral Votes. 43.17% of the Popular Vote

Republican: Nixon/Agnew - 261 Electoral Votes. 42.97% of the Popular Vote.

Independent: Wallace/LeMay - 46 Electoral Votes. 13.53% of the Popular Vote.
 
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In his second attempt at the Presidency, Richard Nixon came closer in terms of Electoral Votes than he did last time, in 1960. The Democrats accused Nixon of voter fraud in several states.

After publicly accusing the Democratic Party of conspiring to deny him the Presidency in both 1960 and 1968, public opinion of Nixon dropped and the Republican leadership began to distance themselves from Nixon. Legal action by Nixon lead to nothing and Hubert Humphrey was sworn in as President on January 20, 1969.

Democratic: Humphrey/Muskie - 269 Electoral Votes. 43.17% of the Popular Vote

Republican: Nixon/Agnew - 261 Electoral Votes. 42.97% of the Popular Vote.

Independent: Wallace/LeMay - 46 Electoral Votes. 13.53% of the Popular Vote.

270 is the minimum number of electoral votes to win, and there can only be 538 electoral votes...you have more than that.

Here is Humphrey-Muskie eking out an electoral victory, 272-220-46 with fewer votes than Nixon-Agnew:

pe1968whatif2.gif
 

MrHola

Banned
(Thank you, fenkmaster. I wasn't aware of that.)

In his second attempt at the Presidency, Richard Nixon came closer in terms of Electoral Votes than he did last time, in 1960. The Democrats accused Nixon of voter fraud in several states.

After publicly accusing the Democratic Party of conspiring to deny him the Presidency in both 1960 and 1968, public opinion of Nixon dropped and the Republican leadership began to distance themselves from Nixon. Legal action by Nixon lead to nothing and Hubert Humphrey was sworn in as President on January 20, 1969.

Democratic: Humphrey/Muskie - 272 Electoral Votes. 43.17% of the Popular Vote

Republican: Nixon/Agnew - 220 Electoral Votes. 42.97% of the Popular Vote.

Independent: Wallace/LeMay - 46 Electoral Votes. 13.53% of the Popular Vote.

***
The Humphrey Cabinet

President: Hubert Humphrey

Vice President: Edmund Muskie

Secretary of State: Clark Gifford (?)

Secretary of Defence: Cyrus Vance (?)

Any advice on other potential cabinet members?
 
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