Humphrey Defeats McGovern in California.

In 1972, McGovern's nomination was assured by his victory over Hubert Humphrey in California. However, this victory was much more narrow than had been predicted, and relative to that prediction, Humphrey came rather close to defeating McGovern in that race.

So, what if Humphrey had narrowly edged out McGovern in California?

I assume the first thing that happens is New York becomes a real competition, and I can see Humphrey winning that election, because now it isn't as clear who the nominee will be. (If I'm wrong about this assessment, I apologize in advanced.)

So Humphrey in addition to his wins IOTL goes to tha convention with at least California and possibly New York under his belt.

What happens in Miami?
 
Alternatively Humphrey forces through at the convention the rules change he was arguing for. Basically winner-take-all primaries—such as California—violate McGovern's Committee's rule changes post-1968. (Which led, of course, to the hilarious situation of McGovern arguing against his own rules in a nice bit of hypocrisy.)

But yeah, sure, simply winning California is probably enough for Humphrey to take the convention and he might well win New York although I'm not sure if he needs it off the top of my head.


After that, though, Nixon still wins big (not as big, but a major victory). What it might do is weaken the New Left wing of the Democratic Party a little, which could have interesting consequences for the '74 midterms.
 
I'm not sure if even with California, Humphrey could overtake McGovern. From what I've read, California made McGovern's nomination a certainty. But, I'm not sure it would have done the same for Humphrey.

Regardless, I bet we see a much more active convention fight. If Humphrey comes out as the nominee, I would expect him to pick a McGovern acceptable VP.


Off the top of my head-Humphrey-Lindsay?

In the long run, this might help McGovern. He isn't discredited by a landslide defeat.

McGovern 76'? Though, we're thinking ahead of ourselves. Does McGovern triumph anyway at the convention? or does Humphrey prevail?
 
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