Huey Long in the CSA.

OK, how about this.
Would you allow that an individual with the both the personality and a similar life story as the Huey Long of our timeline could exist in a Confederate victory universe?

That such an individual could rise to prominence in Louisiana politics in the twenties and hold a Senate office in the early thirties?
In addition, that said sapient would have a chance at being elected President and thereby taking the oath of office in Richmond?

Yes, in a Confederate victory universe, an individual with a similar personality and a similar life story to that of the OTL Huey Long might well arise. However, this Huey Long analogue person might not arise in TTL during the 1920s & '30s, for the reasons Japhy stated ...

The problem is that Reggie's CSA makes no sense. Its a confederate apologetic's dream version that has next to no contact with reality. Long all butterflies aside, would not have access to power. The south would not be a functional state.

And any theoretical populist movement in the country would have long set sail by then. You want revolutionary change in the South? Zebulon Vance attempting to create a multi-party state or Tom Watson's Anti-Aristocratic Populism are the ways to go. If its up to Huey Long, then the Military (If not the Union) has probably already ended the farce of CS "Democracy".
 
Yes, in a Confederate victory universe, an individual with a similar personality and a similar life story to that of the OTL Huey Long might well arise. However, this Huey Long analogue person might not arise in TTL during the 1920s & '30s, for the reasons Japhy stated ...

True, but even Zebulon Vance might have some trouble ITTL, TBH: Remember, this guy was remarkably forward thinking for his day IOTL, at least towards Jewish folks anyhow. Anti-semitism might not be such a major problem without the Klan but it would still be there. He might, however, have a real chance if he sticks to the "local autonomy & self-governance" routine he supported IOTL, especially if the C.S. government starts going down the road of authoritarianism.
 
So if my POD has the dinosaurs not go extinct and evolve into a sentient species, will the CSA have any better of a chance to win the ACW?
 

mowque

Banned
Assume the OP posted: "What if someone with a similar background, ideology and personallity, to OTL's Huey Long (lets call him Huey Long for simplicity sake) became prominent in a CSA as described".

As already noted by many the problem is not that Huey Long wont exist but that this is too an ideal CSA. If the CSA hasnt fallen to some radical revolution / internal implosion then likely yes Huey Long equivalent might raise to prominence under a likely established populist party.

Every single thing Huey Long ever experianced is different (up to and including his DNA conception). How could he be remotely the same?
 

Japhy

Banned
Every single thing Huey Long ever experianced is different (up to and including his DNA conception). How could he be remotely the same?

Nurture matters as much as nature. ATL siblings are going to be a lot alike. Though if Huey Long has drive in the confederacy, he's not going to be a populist.
 

Japhy

Banned
Yeah but his nuture will be all different.

Not all different.

I was mistaken, you're not arguing for butterflies, you're arguing for the Chaos Theory, which is as flawed as "Stuff does and doesn't change and Jack Kennedy gets to be Governor-General of the United Colonies."
 

mowque

Banned
Not all different.

I was mistaken, you're not arguing for butterflies, you're arguing for the Chaos Theory, which is as flawed as "Stuff does and doesn't change and Jack Kennedy gets to be Governor-General of the United Colonies."

As a rule, I never consider any OTL person who was born after a POD.
 

mowque

Banned
Then why even get involved in these discussions?

Because I think it is important. Consideration of cause and effect is what makes AH different then just fanasty or historical fiction (both of which i enjoy).

Changing history has real effects and trying to figure them out is what makes this genre great. Seeing OTL events, people and places intergrate into a new setting in a realistic and interesting way.

Slapping Huey Long into a setting he could never exist in is the exact reverse. It is clumsy, ignorant and un-intertesting. We might as well ask how CSA preisdent Carter is doing.
 

Japhy

Banned
Because I think it is important. Consideration of cause and effect is what makes AH different then just fanasty or historical fiction (both of which i enjoy).

Changing history has real effects and trying to figure them out is what makes this genre great. Seeing OTL events, people and places intergrate into a new setting in a realistic and interesting way.

Slapping Huey Long into a setting he could never exist in is the exact reverse. It is clumsy, ignorant and un-intertesting. We might as well ask how CSA preisdent Carter is doing.

I agree but completely making people up out of the ether and negating all possible historical trends isn't any better an option. The first generation born after a PoD are going to be drastically similar to their OTL counterparts. No matter what they're being raised by the same people, and thats critical to development, after that, unless were going to skip out into complete fictional people there needs to be some grounding to matter.

And at the very least we can accept that the person being discussed in these kind of threads is at least a placeholder for some ATL relative or someone who is completely different.

Trends on the other hand will transcend the people living them out. There will be calls for reform in the Confederacy (Though Reggie is completely and utterly wrong about how it will come about) and agrarian populism will probably be the means by which it arrives. That can be discussed here, there's no reason to hijack the discussion to kill it.
 
If we write a pass for Huey Long, which, admittedly, we will do for less Lost Cause-y timelines, or even our Huey Long equivalent, its gets a touch interesting. We're basically looking at populism in some victorious CSA. How do the Dixie Draka deal with someone speaking for the rights of the economically oppressed.

Consider that part of the OTL's long's appeal was highly economic, and that whatever his (many, many) other flaws, he welcomed black support, at least earlier on. In any Dixie-Draka situation like this one, that will be a more revolutionary sentiment. Even if the power of wish fulfillment ends slavery, you have a situation where the black community is in even worse straits in rural Louisiana than they already were.

Secondly, considering the generally anti-universal suffrage positions of a lot of pre-war Southern elites, whether alt. Long can come up through the ballot box is a real question. OTL Long's was a master of the politics of mass mobilization - and these timelines have to leave the 14th and 15th Amendments behind with that pesky 13th. Heck, the real question here isn't whether race relations have gotten to something that suits the lost-causer conscious; it's whether there was a analogue of the 15th Amendment too.

Realistically, I'd say no. Long's career starts in the 1910's, in a quite aristocratic nation founded on slavery, who are right now hoovering down every kind of eugenicist thought with a vengeance I'm thinking. I'm thinking the ballot box is not the path it'll be in OTL. Any section whose elites could praise slavery as something wiser than the mess of universal male suffrage is not passing a 15th amendment equivalent to make you feel better. Just because the Lost Cause fantasy currently skews populist is no reason it would after a real Southern victory.

On the other, hand, we've written a pass for Long's existence, and he was deeply charismatic, authoritative man with an intelligence that was sharp and keen. Whatever else you say about Huey Long, he had an incredible amount of human ability - driven, brilliant, manipulative, and possessed of boundless energy. So I think he'd be a guerrilla leader - the charismatic leader that both black and white serfs and sharecroppers view almost as a Messiah, one step ahead of the Planter aristocracy forces, making a mockery of their by now half century ideology of racial supremacy. This may be a little Rule of Cool, but the idea of Huey Long as Magnificent Bastard as opposed to the would-be dictator is kind of cool.
 
If we write a pass for Huey Long, which, admittedly, we will do for less Lost Cause-y timelines, or even our Huey Long equivalent, its gets a touch interesting. We're basically looking at populism in some victorious CSA. How do the Dixie Draka deal with someone speaking for the rights of the economically oppressed.

Consider that part of the OTL's long's appeal was highly economic, and that whatever his (many, many) other flaws, he welcomed black support, at least earlier on. In any Dixie-Draka situation like this one, that will be a more revolutionary sentiment. Even if the power of wish fulfillment ends slavery, you have a situation where the black community is in even worse straits in rural Louisiana than they already were.

Secondly, considering the generally anti-universal suffrage positions of a lot of pre-war Southern elites, whether alt. Long can come up through the ballot box is a real question. OTL Long's was a master of the politics of mass mobilization - and these timelines have to leave the 14th and 15th Amendments behind with that pesky 13th. Heck, the real question here isn't whether race relations have gotten to something that suits the lost-causer conscious; it's whether there was a analogue of the 15th Amendment too.

Realistically, I'd say no. Long's career starts in the 1910's, in a quite aristocratic nation founded on slavery, who are right now hoovering down every kind of eugenicist thought with a vengeance I'm thinking. I'm thinking the ballot box is not the path it'll be in OTL. Any section whose elites could praise slavery as something wiser than the mess of universal male suffrage is not passing a 15th amendment equivalent to make you feel better. Just because the Lost Cause fantasy currently skews populist is no reason it would after a real Southern victory.

On the other, hand, we've written a pass for Long's existence, and he was deeply charismatic, authoritative man with an intelligence that was sharp and keen. Whatever else you say about Huey Long, he had an incredible amount of human ability - driven, brilliant, manipulative, and possessed of boundless energy. So I think he'd be a guerrilla leader - the charismatic leader that both black and white serfs and sharecroppers view almost as a Messiah, one step ahead of the Planter aristocracy forces, making a mockery of their by now half century ideology of racial supremacy. This may be a little Rule of Cool, but the idea of Huey Long as Magnificent Bastard as opposed to the would-be dictator is kind of cool.

Not opposed to what you're saying about Long, but Lost Causer? I love how many northerners throw that around when a view of the CSA that doesn't match up to their partisan one throw that term around.

CSA surviving to the 1910's-1920's? Lost Causer?

Slavery economy completely destroyed by the Boll Weevil? Lost Causer?

I mean really.
 

Japhy

Banned
Not opposed to what you're saying about Long, but Lost Causer? I love how many northerners throw that around when a view of the CSA that doesn't match up to their partisan one throw that term around.

CSA surviving to the 1910's-1920's? Lost Causer?

Slavery economy completely destroyed by the Boll Weevil? Lost Causer?

I mean really.

Lost Causer isn't the right word, but it is a ridiculous form of apologetics. Time and again its been pointed out to you that the Boll Weevil will not bring about the Liberal Democratic nation you're seeking and your response is always "You're Biased against the South."

Even before the rebellion Slavery was moving towards industry. During the war that process sped up dramatically. If you think the Mills, Factories, and Mines that were using those slaves at the end of the war were going to give up on larger profit margins either than, or in the 1910's you're ignoring a large amount of fact and basic capitalism.

The same is true on the concept that the South would be a functional Democratic state when it was from its birth controlled by a minority power of the planter aristocracy and the military.

Now you can say thats all Anti-Southern Bias all you want, but I'd suggest at the very least looking at what happened when Reconstruction collapsed and the Redeemers came to power, and what they did with the Birth of Convict Labor and Leasing, Sharecropping (And plenty of Peonage) , and the Chain Gangs. There's been plenty of research into it in recent years. I'd suggest reading Slavery By Another Name by Douglas Blackmon as a starter, if you'd like I can offer even more titles.
 
Not opposed to what you're saying about Long, but Lost Causer? I love how many northerners throw that around when a view of the CSA that doesn't match up to their partisan one throw that term around.

CSA surviving to the 1910's-1920's? Lost Causer?

Slavery economy completely destroyed by the Boll Weevil? Lost Causer?

I mean really.

Southerns were quite adept at finding different uses for their slaves, they did so before the cotton gin, they were starting to do so when the civil war started, and as the Boll Wevill didn't gut the many other cash crops that utilized slave labor, I don't think it's a moral-dilemma free way to hand wave away slavery. New rule: if Mr. Boll didn't cause share-cropping to collapse, you can't use it to hand wave away the slavery that the CSA formed itself in battle to defend.

Nuts and bolts though, Long was a master of voter mobilization as well as rhetoric and some gloriously base political manipulation. That form of voter mobilization in the US largely comes about due to the 15th amendment, passed after a little incident at Appomattox Courthouse. Any CSA, even if existing permanently in some instagramed sepia tinted haze, has left before this is guaranteed. The 15th was more of a urban amendment than a rural one in terms of who pushed for it. How does a state founded on a particularly brutal version of landowners having the power summon the same coalition?

Hence, the idea of Long as the guerrilla leader, mobilizing people against the top heavy racial hierarchy the South seceded to create. I'm kind of eager to see the Che shirt with Huey Long's mug on it... might be cool in a bizarre way...
 
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