Huey Long in the CSA.

[Reggie Bartlett]

Depending on the POD, but lets just say Huey Long, the Kingfish himself, exists in such a timeline, similar to how he was in OTL and runs for Louisiana politics and tries to get into the wider Confederate scene during a TTL analogue of the Great Depression.

For the sake of argument, the CSA de-facto abolished slavery in the 1910's after the boll weevil destroyed it. There is a mix of light and heavy industry in the CSA (Nashville, Birmingham, Richmond, Houston, New Orleans, Atlanta, Charleston, Louisville, Norfolk, Knoxville). The country has segregation, but it's not OTL Jim Crow, but a system that is similar in many aspects, but depending on the state may be less strict than others. It is still a largely rural nation, and it may be on the verge of a great migration of blacks illegally immigrating over the Ohio River.

The country is also looking at a potential oil boom that has been taking hold over the last 15 years and something of a Gilded Age with nouveau riche Texas cowboys and Louisiana businessmen are starting to compete with the established planters.

So, does the Kingfish have the potential to reach presidential status here?

 

[mowque]

Butterflies.

 

[Baconheimer]

He could. Likely, small farmers will be being outdated and marginalised, so he could gain their vote on a Populist Platform, he could possibly get the newer rich, instead of the Planter Elite on his side. If he did, I could see him getting the presidency.

 

[Mumby]

He could also potentially get support from those blacks looking to emigrate.

 

[Kingfish]

Depends. How are the North-South relationships? Do the blacks have the right to vote?

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

Depends. How are the North-South relationships? Do the blacks have the right to vote?

North-South relationship was shaky and cold at first, but with the passage of time became at least a little warmer.

And at the moment blacks do not, but Louisiana (New Orleans particularly) likes to stand out a little in the CSA for a number of reasons.

 

[mowque]

Butterflies would prevent him from being born though. And even if his parents had a kid, and even named him Huey Long, circumstances would be so different as to make him a totally different person.

 

[Gorrister]

Butterflies would prevent him from being born though. And even if his parents had a kid, and even named him Huey Long, circumstances would be so different as to make him a totally different person.

Didn't you already bring this up? and besides,the thread's not really concerning itself with the Butterflies.

 

[Ariosto]

Butterflies would prevent him from being born though. And even if his parents had a kid, and even named him Huey Long, circumstances would be so different as to make him a totally different person.

Ah, don't take all the fun out of the scenario.

Anyway, while that would be the realistic path, convergence is so common that I see nothing wrong with it.
​

 

[mowque]

Didn't you already bring this up? and besides,the thread's not really concerning itself with the Butterflies.

Then it belongs in ASB.

 

[bugwar]

Then it belongs in ASB.

Then as I understand your logic, pretty much every thread in the forum belongs in ASB.

As such, I think Long has a chance at the Executive mansion.

 

[Japhy]

Besides the fact that Mowque is completely right, the assumptions of the OP are complety wrong. His assumption that slavery could gently end in the independent south is ridiculous, his view further that the Confederacy would have a functionally democratic form of government is laughable. By the time Huey Long could rise to prominence he would be boxed in by the fact that the Slavocracy would be completely entrenched sans revolution and the simple fact the Confederacy would be a failed state.

 

[mowque]

Then as I understand your logic, pretty much every thread in the forum belongs in ASB.

How does that follow?

 

[Ran]

Besides the fact that Mowque is completely right

But is he? The rallying cry of "butterflies" really aught to have no place outside of time travel stories. When you roll dice, the odds of rolling two sixes in a row may be low, but the odds of rolling a second six after you roll the first six are still one in six.

So the "butterflies" might well result in the same (or similar enough) actors being present, allowing us to look at what the more direct/logical consequences of a PoD might be. Besides it is more fun to have some history in our alternate history, IMO. If everything is 'butterflies', then what's the point of PoDs at all? Hitler sneezes, butterflies mean Brazil annexes Canada or somesuch?

I think it's very unlikely that this kind of CSA would come about, but if it did and Huey Long was about and that similar to his OTL self, I think he'd stand a great chance at taking the Presidency -- he was something of a populist and the nation he is trying to take over is now smaller and more focused around his base of support.

 

[bugwar]

The Rules of Change

As I understand your postings, any change in history results in a timeline widely at variance with ours.

Butterflies would prevent him from being born though. And even if his parents had a kid, and even named him Huey Long, circumstances would be so different as to make him a totally different person.

Therefore, under 'mowque time change' rules, unless you invoke Alien Space Bats, there is no chance that any alternate history will bear resemblance to our own.

 

[Japhy]

But is he? The rallying cry of "butterflies" really aught to have no place outside of time travel stories. When you roll dice, the odds of rolling two sixes in a row may be low, but the odds of rolling a second six after you roll the first six are still one in six.

Not really how odds work. Also to continually roll sixes for the thousands of die casts is implauseable. Changes *will* occur. Or hell, the issue can be pointed out to be that the first roll in Reggie's South isn't correct because he says its a six when its actually a one.

I think it's very unlikely that this kind of CSA would come about, but if it did and Huey Long was about and that similar to his OTL self, I think he'd stand a great chance at taking the Presidency -- he was something of a populist and the nation he is trying to take over is now smaller and more focused around his base of support.

The problem is that Reggie's CSA makes no sense. Its a confederate apologetic's dream version that has next to no contact with reality. Long all butterflies aside, would not have access to power. The south would not be a functional state.

And any theoretical populist movement in the country would have long set sail by then. You want revolutionary change in the South? Zebulon Vance attempting to create a multi-party state or Tom Watson's Anti-Aristocratic Populism are the ways to go. If its up to Huey Long, then the Military (If not the Union) has probably already ended the farce of CS "Democracy".

Therefore, under 'mowque time change' rules, unless you invoke Alien Space Bats, there is no chance that any alternate history will bear resemblance to our own.

You know Jared and plenty of other people have demonstrated that ATL *siblings and *cousins work perfectly well and don't have to involve drastic changes to trends over time.

 

[Lord Grattan]

But is he? The rallying cry of "butterflies" really aught to have no place outside of time travel stories. When you roll dice, the odds of rolling two sixes in a row may be low, but the odds of rolling a second six after you roll the first six are still one in six.

So the "butterflies" might well result in the same (or similar enough) actors being present, allowing us to look at what the more direct/logical consequences of a PoD might be. Besides it is more fun to have some history in our alternate history, IMO. If everything is 'butterflies', then what's the point of PoDs at all? Hitler sneezes, butterflies mean Brazil annexes Canada or somesuch?

I think it's very unlikely that this kind of CSA would come about, but if it did and Huey Long was about and that similar to his OTL self, I think he'd stand a great chance at taking the Presidency -- he was something of a populist and the nation he is trying to take over is now smaller and more focused around his base of support.

Yes, w/an 1862-63 POD enabling a CSA "War Between The States" victory, both Huey Pierce Long (b. 1852) & Caledonia Palestine Tison (b. 1860) will exist, and yes, they may grow up to be relatively the same as their OTL selves, and yes, they might find each other and get married at nearly the same time as OTL, and yes, the seventh of their nine surviving children might be born on August 30, 1893, and yes, if a boy, he might be named Huey Pierce Long, Jr., and yes, the Long family might be a farm-owning middle-class family (I wonder if they'd have a slave or 2 on the farm?), and yes, it's possible that "Junior" could an excellent student with a photographic memory (I wonder if this Huey Long, Jr. would get himself expelled from High School?). However, we're now 50 years post-POD. No one born in the ante-bellum South before the POD is going to be the same person in a CSA Victory TL 1912-13 as they were in OTL 1912-13 (some might even be dead in TTL). A Huey Long, Jr., born in TTL might vaguely resemble the man in OTL, but that's about all.

 

[jycee]

Yes, w/an 1862-63 POD enabling a CSA "War Between The States" victory, both Huey Pierce Long (b. 1852) & Caledonia Palestine Tison (b. 1860) will exist, and yes, they may grow up to be relatively the same as their OTL selves, and yes, they might find each other and get married at nearly the same time as OTL, and yes, the seventh of their nine surviving children might be born on August 30, 1893, and yes, if a boy, he might be named Huey Pierce Long, Jr., and yes, the Long family might be a farm-owning middle-class family (I wonder if they'd have a slave or 2 on the farm?), and yes, it's possible that "Junior" could an excellent student with a photographic memory (I wonder if this Huey Long, Jr. would get himself expelled from High School?). However, we're now 50 years post-POD. No one born in the ante-bellum South before the POD is going to be the same person in a CSA Victory TL 1912-13 as they were in OTL 1912-13 (some might even be dead in TTL). A Huey Long, Jr., born in TTL might vaguely resemble the man in OTL, but that's about all.

Oh for the love of AH!! If we stuck to such strict rules every time we write a TL work on a scenario, etc we would always be using the ASB forum and nothing elese.
Assume the OP posted: "What if someone with a similar background, ideology and personallity, to OTL's Huey Long (lets call him Huey Long for simplicity sake) became prominent in a CSA as described".

As already noted by many the problem is not that Huey Long wont exist but that this is too an ideal CSA. If the CSA hasnt fallen to some radical revolution / internal implosion then likely yes Huey Long equivalent might raise to prominence under a likely established populist party.

 

[bugwar]

Spitting Image

No one born in the ante-bellum South before the POD is going to be the same person in a CSA Victory TL 1912-13 as they were in OTL 1912-13 (some might even be dead in TTL). A Huey Long, Jr., born in TTL might vaguely resemble the man in OTL, but that's about all.

OK, how about this.
Would you allow that an individual with the both the personality and a similar life story as the Huey Long of our timeline could exist in a Confederate victory universe?

That such an individual could rise to prominence in Louisiana politics in the twenties and hold a Senate office in the early thirties?
In addition, that said sapient would have a chance at being elected President and thereby taking the oath of office in Richmond?


EDIT: Sorry Jycee, I did not see your post before making mine.

 

[CaliBoy1990]

He could. Likely, small farmers will be being outdated and marginalised, so he could gain their vote on a Populist Platform, he could possibly get the newer rich, instead of the Planter Elite on his side. If he did, I could see him getting the presidency.

I think so too, but he'd have a pretty tough time of it fighting those very same Old Planters, or at least the more reactionary ones.

And at the moment blacks do not, but Louisiana (New Orleans particularly) likes to stand out a little in the CSA for a number of reasons.

I can see that happening.

Ah, don't take all the fun out of the scenario.

Anyway, while that would be the realistic path, convergence is so common that I see nothing wrong with it.
​

And it may not necessarily be just that; in some cases, it might possibly be the other way around, perhaps depending on the circumstances.

As I understand your postings, any change in history results in a timeline widely at variance with ours.



Therefore, under 'mowque time change' rules, unless you invoke Alien Space Bats, there is no chance that any alternate history will bear resemblance to our own.

And any theoretical populist movement in the country would have long set sail by then. You want revolutionary change in the South? Zebulon Vance attempting to create a multi-party state or Tom Watson's Anti-Aristocratic Populism are the ways to go. If its up to Huey Long, then the Military (If not the Union) has probably already ended the farce of CS "Democracy".

Vance could be a candidate, though the C.S.A. managing to survive the war might possibly butterfly his populism or at least certain aspects of it.

You know Jared and plenty of other people have demonstrated that ATL *siblings and *cousins work perfectly well and don't have to involve drastic changes to trends over time.

True, though I don't think he was arguing against that, necessarily.

Yes, w/an 1862-63 POD enabling a CSA "War Between The States" victory, both Huey Pierce Long (b. 1852) & Caledonia Palestine Tison (b. 1860) will exist, and yes, they may grow up to be relatively the same as their OTL selves, and yes, they might find each other and get married at nearly the same time as OTL, and yes, the seventh of their nine surviving children might be born on August 30, 1893, and yes, if a boy, he might be named Huey Pierce Long, Jr., and yes, the Long family might be a farm-owning middle-class family (I wonder if they'd have a slave or 2 on the farm?), and yes, it's possible that "Junior" could an excellent student with a photographic memory (I wonder if this Huey Long, Jr. would get himself expelled from High School?). However, we're now 50 years post-POD. No one born in the ante-bellum South before the POD is going to be the same person in a CSA Victory TL 1912-13 as they were in OTL 1912-13 (some might even be dead in TTL). A Huey Long, Jr., born in TTL might vaguely resemble the man in OTL, but that's about all.

There is some truth to that, and certainly, H.P. Long, though he might strongly resemble or even virtually be the same person, physically, as he was OTL, his experiences could be quite different in many ways.