Huey Long: American Dictator

[ggarner57]

I've been reading about the Louisiana Governor lately, and of his lust for power and authority, cut short by an assassin's bullet in 1935.
I also read of a certain plot he was accused of that intrigued me: unable to secure a Democratic nomination, he would run another candidate on a third party ticket, thus splitting the vote so a Republican would win. The Republicans would then fail to address the Depression, and America's economy would fall even further. He would then sweep into office in 1940, bringing a new era of government control even FDR couldn't dream of.

So I am asking you two things: is this plot plausible, if he had lived? And what would a Long presidency look like?

 

[David T]

No, it is not plausible.

(1) Yes, Jim Farley's 1935 secret poll showed that Long, running for President on a third-party ticket, would have gotten more than 4 million popular votes. But two things have to be remembered here: (a) that poll was taken in 1935--by November 1936 the economy had improved considerably, and this would certainly have helped FDR and hurt Long, and (b) it is easier to *talk* about voting for a third-party candidate than to actually vote for him--when the time for actual voting comes, people are reluctant to "waste their votes."

Of course in retrospect, we know that even if Long *did* get four million votes in 1936 and even if they all came from FDR, the election would still be an FDR landslide. (Obviously Farley could not know this in 1935, when many people expected a close race for the Presidency.) For that matter, even if Long got four million votes again in 1940, that would not be enough to deprive FDR of victory over Willkie.

(2) Had Long survived, he would be more likely to end up in jail than in the White House, for reasons I explain at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/DbPyRlLOTWk/0506sMqWSosJ

 

[ggarner57]

But, the poll was taken with zero campaigning being done by Long, and before he even began to move his political machine towards an election. And there is the possibility that the assassin wounded, but didn't kill him, possibly giving him even more support. And the South has indeed supported a viable third party, The States Rights Democrats.

I just think that if a few things went differently he could have had a legitimate chance.

 

[David T]

But, the poll was taken with zero campaigning being done by Long, and before he even began to move his political machine towards an election. And there is the possibility that the assassin wounded, but didn't kill him, possibly giving him even more support. And the South has indeed supported a viable third party, The States Rights Democrats.

I just think that if a few things went differently he could have had a legitimate chance.

Long could have gotten *eight* million votes and FDR would still have won comfortably. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1936.txt
Anyway, the only times the South has backed a third party candidate has been when its racial mores were threatened--in 1948 and 1968. FDR was careful to stay away from offending the South too much in that area, and Long in any event did not try to exploit the race issue. (And even in 1948, the only states Thurmond carried were ones where he was on the ballot as the state's Democratic candidate.)

Once again, please remember that 1936 was a year of remarkable economic recovery: "The most rapid growth came in 1936, when real GDP grew 13.1 percent and the unemployment rate fell 4.4 percentage points."
http://behl.berkeley.edu/files/2013/02/WP2013-06_Hausman.pdf Even modest economic growth (if accompanied by peace) seems to be enough to re-elect presidents under most circumstances. Can you just imagine how much Obama would have won by if the economy grew 13 percent in 2012?

And then think how much the opposition of the Liberty League and the "economic royalists" helped FDR. They made it very hard for Long or anyone else to portray FDR as soft on the rich.

 

[Emperor Julian]

But, the poll was taken with zero campaigning being done by Long, and before he even began to move his political machine towards an election. And there is the possibility that the assassin wounded, but didn't kill him, possibly giving him even more support. And the South has indeed supported a viable third party, The States Rights Democrats.

I just think that if a few things went differently he could have had a legitimate chance.

The South isn't going to revolt for Long; all the times that happened, it was over race, and Long was remarkably progressive on racial issues.

If Long or a stooge of his took 20% of the vote from Roosevelt in every state and none from the Republicans (which would be a crazy high percentage, and there would probably be Republican defections as well, especially if he ran Borah), Roosevelt would still win reelection. The only way Long is going to do that well or better is if Roosevelt has massively failed the economy. Long's scheme was doomed to fail.

I would move the POD back to 1933, have Roosevelt assassinated and Garner President, and then have Garner actually fulfill the Democratic campaign promises to be more conservative on the budget, destroy the US economy, and allow the nation to go radical enough to elect Long in 1936.

 

[Japhy]

Frankly I've never viewed the Long plan as likely even with the mans's survival.

Even in a scenario where Landon does infinitely better and even wins thanks to a split vote brought on by an Olsen or Borah patsy run by Long's third party, it takes a great leap for the Kingfish to be able to walk into a Democratic Convention and say "See what I did, if you don't nominate me I'll do it again" and find a Democratic Party willing to accept. This did after all, happen three decades later, when another Southern Populist followed that broad outline of a plan. And even with national primaries, and even without Arthur Bremmer's bullet, George Wallace found himself no closer to the Democratic nomination than he was in 1966.

Once Long tries to defeat a Democratic president, he's out in the wilderness. The Solid South, the New Deal Coalition, the Farley National Machine will have nothing to do with him. The 1940 Convention will be a closed door to him. After that being a know-nothing in regards to World Affairs no longer serves as a plus or even as a neutral on ones resume, and his time will be rapidly fading off. He'd be finished. Long's only chance is to stay a good, loyal Democrat, and hope FDR steps down in 1940, and even then he's not remotely liked by the party.

However one looks at it, he'd be in no position to establish a dictatorship, either a political one, or the economic one his platform called for. What a Long Presidency would be defined by would be America First Isolationism abroad, and stagnation for four years as a President with no ability to work with others bashed his head against the Brick Wall of Congress.