How would YOU equip SADF in the 1980's?

[Clint]

Yes, and then some. The Merkava was designed from top to bottom top suit Israel's needs. Export, and the potential needs of customers were never considered. As a result, protection was prioritized over speed. Merkava's MK1 and MK11 had a top speed of 30 mph and weighed 65 tons. Meanwhile, the Leclrec is 9 tons lighter and has "one of the best power to weight ratios and top speed of any modern tank".

First of all I'm pretty sure the MK.II is faster then 30 mph, but I can't recall just how much faster. I'll ask next month when I'm on reserve duty.

But more importently, you are comparing a tank from the '80's to a tank from the '90's. And that's with base data. We still don't know how much the weight and after that the performance of the Leclerc change once you remove the autoloader and place a fourth crew member and additional armor for him. If you don't add additional armor it's still fast, but not as protected as comparable tanks.

If you get a MK.II and after that buy MK.III you still have a good tank all throught the '80's without relying on the old Centurions or buy aging M60's, and you also have a nearly fully compatible logistics system, since both generations have plenty of parts that fit both, instead of trying to supply a WW2-era British tank, a cold war American, and a '90's French.

The Leclrec has a range of over 400 MPH. I also bet the Leclerec's 8 cylinder engine is more fuel efficient than the Challenger's 12 cylinder. Then factor in less wear on bridges, roads etc.

The difference of wear of bridges and roads is negligable.

That is true, but alot of French equipment does fit SADF needs. I am sure that a hypothetical "total package" South African purchase of bush war oriented Leclrecs, Mirage 2000-5s, Mistral manpads, Exocets, and french radios would give the SADF excellent equipment at an attractive savings.

Sure, I would want the very best, "cost no objection" equipment, but I would also need to be concerned about other national needs balanced against realistic threats. South Africa is not facing a "Fulda Gap" type scenario, so the global "par excellence" tank may not be needed. Likewise, German submarines may well have better performance than Agostas, but are they worth the additional cost given other national needs? Maybe, maybe not.

It's possible, but so is doing the same with American or British equipment.

 

[Have Blue-117]

Mann:
You stated earlier that the SADF prided itself on mobility and I looked into their armored doctrine. It is very similar to Germany's and the Leopard 2 is designed just more the, with mobility and firepower being its strengths. The Leopard could be a joint development with Germany and they could develop their own version built by Denel. It would be based off of the Leopard 2A6 and be called the Leopard 2SA, kind of like Spain and the Leopard 2E. It would have LAHAT, improved side and belly armor, APS, and local electronics and optics.

What you said about the Ratel replacement, local development or joint development are likely. For the AMV, Finland could buy the G6 and G7, Umkhonto and Rooivalk with local production which leads to greater industrial cooperation and a joint development. Something similar could happen with Turkey and the Pars or Switzerland and the Piranha V.

As for tactical ballistic missiles, a local product is most likely, but I wouldn't rule out cooperation with Brazil, India or Turkey.

 

[Workable Goblin]

I could also see further development of their nuclear and space programs. By now they could have the RSA 5 ICBM in service and could be designing and launching satellites as well, maybe even sending astronauts to the ISS.

I can't really see South Africa without the embargo heavily investing in nuclear weapons (in particular) and space activities (less so). Nuclear weapons would have the issue of the non-proliferation treaty and the fact that they're extreme, expensive overkill for a South Africa without apartheid and backed up by the United States & co. I can see them investing in nuclear technology, reactors and the like, and getting into a state like Japan or Canada ("if we want them, it would take a few months to put them together"), but I just don't see them actually building them without the apparent existential threat they faced OTL. Nukes are an existential weapon, and you don't build them if you don't think you're going to face something of that magnitude.

As far as space activities, while I can see them launching perhaps a few astronauts, it would be as guests onboard a shuttle flight or an ISS mission, like South Korea or Canada, not on their own vehicles; and while I can certainly see them funding a few space missions, these would most likely be along the lines of the Arabsats or Alouettes or so on, satellites (not even necessarily built by South Africa) launched on board US or European rockets. Very few countries have developed their own launch capabilities, and without the embargo there would be little incentive to do so.

 

[TheMann]

Mann:
You stated earlier that the SADF prided itself on mobility and I looked into their armored doctrine. It is very similar to Germany's and the Leopard 2 is designed just more the, with mobility and firepower being its strengths. The Leopard could be a joint development with Germany and they could develop their own version built by Denel. It would be based off of the Leopard 2A6 and be called the Leopard 2SA, kind of like Spain and the Leopard 2E. It would have LAHAT, improved side and belly armor, APS, and local electronics and optics.

I thought about the Leo 2 for South Africa, particularly as the SADF in my TL was locked in near-perpetual potential conflict with the Soviet-backed Cubans. The Leo 2 could potentially see its first conflict in their minds in Southern Africa, an environment which is about as harsh for a tank as it gets, against an enemy which in the case of a conflict would be using most of the same equipment the Bundeswehr was likely to face in Europe. The Leo 2SA idea did occur to me, but I went for the Merkava here because of the extensive connections Israel and South Africa made when both were pariahs in the world. The Leo 2 was the best tank other than the Merkava in my mind for SA, just because of the likelihood of such a connection.

What you said about the Ratel replacement, local development or joint development are likely. For the AMV, Finland could buy the G6 and G7, Umkhonto and Rooivalk with local production which leads to greater industrial cooperation and a joint development. Something similar could happen with Turkey and the Pars or Switzerland and the Piranha V.

As for tactical ballistic missiles, a local product is most likely, but I wouldn't rule out cooperation with Brazil, India or Turkey.

I had the idea of a multi-nation project for a variety of things for an army, with one western nation (most likely France) and several other countries, including South Africa, Turkey, Brazil and India. South Africa provides attack helicopters, short-range air-to-air missiles, anti-material rifles and artillery, Brazil provides rocket artillery, transport aircraft (KC-390) and command systems (an Avibras specialty) as well as shipbuilding services, Turkey provides ultramodern armored personnel carriers and mini UAVs and India, which needs all of the above in some quantity, would be involved as a facilitator of the deal, though the HAL Dhruv helicopter is a good little helicopter which has rather more beans that usual for a chopper of its size, needed to fly to the high altitudes that the Indian Army's operations in the Himalayas demand. France wouldn't buy the choppers or short-range AAMs (they have Eurocopter and MBDA for that), but if they are the ones assembling the deals, that's a lot of Rafales and EC 725s and other French military products, and the KC-390s would be a nice replacement for the French Air Force's fleet of C-160s (and/or a nice backstop to their own A400Ms), the G6-52 is a lighter, faster and more capable unit than the French Army's existing self-propelled 155mm guns (which are based on AMX-30 chassis) and the new APC may well be a good complement to the VBCI.....

 

[Cryptic]

@ Cryptic: The Leclerc isn't the best tank design in the world. It is not bad per se, but the autoloader is a big loss and tank speed really doesn't matter as much as you think it does,

I dont think the Leclrec is the best tank in the world for every situation. I do think that it is the best tank in the world for the situation that South Afrcia faces (Bush War over vast distances). Much like the Merkava is the best tank in the world for Isreal's situation (massed armoured warfare in a small geographic area).

In addition to that, if you look at the lists we have drawn up here, the French get a goodly portion of the work to start with....

Perhaps I used the wrong words when I said "buy everything French". What I meant was "buy a very large bloc of French equipment". If France does not have a heavy lift helicopter, then you cant buy it from them. France, however does have Mirage 2000-5s, Exocets, Mistrals, Leclrecs, very good radios, Atlantique patrol aircraft, Agostas, Gazelles. South Africa may need these types of equipmnet. French over all design philosophy matches South African use needs and French weapons are of good quality. It makes sense for South Africa to offer to purchase a "large bloc" of needed equipment from exclusively from France in return for a volume discount on cost - even if some of the French equipment is not superlative and there is marginally better equipment available elsewhere.

As far as buying everything French, if you are gonna spend the money, you want the best equipment for the situation....

Sure, Stingers might be better than Mistrals (or might not be), tricked out Orions better than Altantiques etc, but South Africa is not facing an immediate overwhelming threat. Therefore, they dont need superlative equipment in every category. Please note that I am not saying that cost effectiveness must always be the deciding factor. On low cost items the superlative can be provided (maybe SADF infantry strongly prefer the M-60 gpmg, or sniper rifle "X" is the best, we need 150 of them).

The SADF, like all modern tank-equipped armies, has lowboy trailers and trucks for that.

True, but then a lighter tank is more fuel efficient, needs a lighter lowboy which in turn can be towed by a smaller transporter. All of this adds up to dollar savings and easier logistics. Now, if these savings yielded a T-72 tank, then the performance / crew safety deficit would no be worth it. Fortunatly, the Leclrec is not a T-72. In addition, the Leclrec is very well suited for the vast distances in South Africa once it gets off the lowboy.

It's possible, but so is doing the same with American or British equipment.

True, but it easier to optimize for long distance Bush War scenarios with 1980s French equipment because a higher proportion of it was already designed with these scenarios in mind. Meanwhile, the 1980s British and American equipment was largely (but not exclusively) designed for the Fulda Gap where it would be supported by comprehensive logisitcs.

 

[abc123]

Upper House with an equal number of members for Black, White, Colored and Indian South Africans, with that number of seats guaranteed by population. Think Lebanon's Parliament, which would be done the same way.

Basically, I'm envisioning a 275-seat lower house and a 120-seat upper house. The 275-seat house is elected by straight majority rule in a first-past-the-post system, each seat representing a certain constituency. The 120 seat house is elected through separate voters rolls, but with 30 seats reserved for each population group.

It seems as pretty good solution to me, but maybe it would be better to have proportional vote system for lower house, maybe with several ( say 10 multi-member constituences ), so that each group can certainly have their members in lower house.

 

[TheMann]

It seems as pretty good solution to me, but maybe it would be better to have proportional vote system for lower house, maybe with several ( say 10 multi-member constituences ), so that each group can certainly have their members in lower house.

With South Africa's population divisions this is inevitable anyways. It's worth remembering that while most of the former Transvaal, Natal and Orange Free State will elect mostly-black lower house MPs, that certainly won't be in the case in the major cities or in most of the Cape Province. South Africa's Indian population is overwhelmingly concentrated in Natal, while very large portions of the Cape Colony are either colored or white majority both IOTL and ITTL. There will certainly be White, Colored and Indian MPs from the Highveld areas as well.

 

[Have Blue-117]

I can't really see South Africa without the embargo heavily investing in nuclear weapons (in particular) and space activities (less so). Nuclear weapons would have the issue of the non-proliferation treaty and the fact that they're extreme, expensive overkill for a South Africa without apartheid and backed up by the United States & co. I can see them investing in nuclear technology, reactors and the like, and getting into a state like Japan or Canada ("if we want them, it would take a few months to put them together"), but I just don't see them actually building them without the apparent existential threat they faced OTL. Nukes are an existential weapon, and you don't build them if you don't think you're going to face something of that magnitude.
Well SA isn't forced to sign the NPT, and who says they wouldn't want their own deterrent. They collaborated with Israel to build the RSA series of missiles which were based on the Jericho missiles and later on they were planning to launch indigenous satellites as well as maintaining a global strike capability. They may not be as ambitious in this world but who knows.
As far as space activities, while I can see them launching perhaps a few astronauts, it would be as guests onboard a shuttle flight or an ISS mission, like South Korea or Canada, not on their own vehicles; and while I can certainly see them funding a few space missions, these would most likely be along the lines of the Arabsats or Alouettes or so on, satellites (not even necessarily built by South Africa) launched on board US or European rockets. Very few countries have developed their own launch capabilities, and without the embargo there would be little incentive to do so.

As I said before they had the ability to have a space program. There may be less funding without the Apartheid but I think they would still want the capability.

 

[sparky42]

As I said before they had the ability to have a space program. There may be less funding without the Apartheid but I think they would still want the capability.

I wonder if they would be more interested in working with the ESA rather than trying to build up and maintain there own capability. Given that Canada is an associate member of the ESA, I don't think it's impossible.

 

[Have Blue-117]

I wonder if they would be more interested in working with the ESA rather than trying to build up and maintain there own capability. Given that Canada is an associate member of the ESA, I don't think it's impossible.

SA is very nationalistic and given the opportunity I think they would prefer to maintain their own capability.

 

[Workable Goblin]

As I said before they had the ability to have a space program. There may be less funding without the Apartheid but I think they would still want the capability.

Yes, and I'm not disputing that. Canada, Australia, and a number of other countries also have the ability to have a space program, but do not because of the expense and limited benefit of doing so in a fully independent sense. Similarly, Brazil and South Korea have only lately shown any real interest in developing their own space capabilities independently of other launch states. Moreover, both the UK and France gave up their own independent space launch capabilities for ESA (albeit Ariane was largely France's vehicle in conception, design, and engineering). Japan is the only major spacefaring nation which is not a superpower, former superpower, possible future superpower, or collaborating with other nations (and even then they used licensed US technology as a springboard).

The question is not one of capability but of will, and I can't honestly think of any good reasons for a non-pariah South Africa to develop an independent space program and launch capability. Satellites? Yes, of course, when Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, and so on have satellites, of course South Africa can afford and will likely have them. Independent launch capability? There's just no reason for it. They can easily have all the actual benefits of space applications without having to spend nearly as much money.

 

[Have Blue-117]

Yes, and I'm not disputing that. Canada, Australia, and a number of other countries also have the ability to have a space program, but do not because of the expense and limited benefit of doing so in a fully independent sense. Similarly, Brazil and South Korea have only lately shown any real interest in developing their own space capabilities independently of other launch states. Moreover, both the UK and France gave up their own independent space launch capabilities for ESA (albeit Ariane was largely France's vehicle in conception, design, and engineering). Japan is the only major spacefaring nation which is not a superpower, former superpower, possible future superpower, or collaborating with other nations (and even then they used licensed US technology as a springboard).
I see your point, but I think they could at least partner with other nations. France and the ESA is an option, however I think a joint program with countries like Brazil, India, Turkey and Israel is most likely as it further expands their technology base and engineering capabilities.
The question is not one of capability but of will, and I can't honestly think of any good reasons for a non-pariah South Africa to develop an independent space program and launch capability. Satellites? Yes, of course, when Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, and so on have satellites, of course South Africa can afford and will likely have them. Independent launch capability? There's just no reason for it. They can easily have all the actual benefits of space applications without having to spend nearly as much money.

Again I see your point here.

 

[Have Blue-117]

Bump to keep it alive.

 

[TheMann]

I would imagine that while SA might consider the idea of having launch rockets of their own, no way do they go for full-on space program. Satellites would be an option as well, but there will be financial limits to how far they would be willing to go. A real-time photo-recon satellite would be a big step if SA could pull it off, as it would give them a capability that not a lot of nations have, which in itself could be advantageous to their strategic goals.

 

[Have Blue-117]

Well what would SA's strategic goals be after the Cold War? I could envision them trying to be Africa's police, kind of like the US and their world police role. Maybe intervening in the affairs of many sub-Saharan African nations.

 

[Jason222]

Well I'm assuming everything goes as per OTL except that there is no Apartheid and no embargo. This means that SA can export defense products and minerals while being able to import oil, improving their economy in the 1980's. I'm also assuming they still have a full nuclear program with potentially a space program, meaning satellites and further missile research.

Army:
The Leopard 2 is produced in SA by Denel and by the 80's they would be using the Leopard 2A4

Armored vehicles are the same as OTL

Artillery is the same except that they use a licensed version of the Astros MLRS in place of the Valkiri

AA is provided by the Roland II, Bloodhound and Cactus SAM systems, Mistral MANPAD, G6 Marksman and Skyguard 35mm gun systems

Small arms are largely the same except that the FN BRG-15 replaces the M2, the L96 is bought for snipers and special forces, a tripod and vehicle mounted Ingwe replaces the Milan, and the P226 is the standard service pistol

The Rooivalk comes into service earlier because of more funding and export orders, the AS532 is built by Atlas to replace the Puma, and the Gazelle/Bo-105 replace the Alouettes

Air Force:
The Mirage 2000 is built by Atlas to replace the Mirage III and Mirage F1, and is integrated with local weapons and avionics

Atlas joins the Panavia consortium and gets the Tornado to replace the Canberra and Buccaneer, and is integrated with local weapons

The Hawk and PC-7 are used as per OTL

The C-130 and C-160 are used as per OTL, with either the G.222 or C-212 to slot below the C-160

Atlas becomes an Airbus partner and gets the A310 for VIP/Presidential transport, tanker, and AWACS with the IAI Phalcon

Various other small aircraft for light transport, liason, and VIP transport

Navy:
Type 42 or MEKO for destroyer/heavy frigate role with local systems and weapons like a naval G6, Exocets, Barak I and Cactus SAMs

Lighter frigate or corvette for patrol and ASW

Lynx and AS532 SC for naval helicopters

Atlantiques or Nimrods for MPA

Exocet batteries for coastal defense

Agosta or Type 209 SSK's for the sub fleet

No embargo against South Africa does not mean per a say no Apartheid per say it just mean rest World for what ever reason decide not worth resource to worth doing it to South Africa Apartheid in another timeline.
First you need civil right group gain power enough challenge South Africa Apartheid in 1980's the Jews some reason deciding not help very possible that happen it segregation might end in 2000 something like that. You would had South Africa Apartheid living kicking to day. Even if all other events USA history want the same so get rid Segregation tactic deal Apartheid South Africa might not be the same I sorry share you all fun ways handle problem out need sanction and boycott on South Africa Apartheid prevent it be used against the Jews in Israel. One tactics to having longer number whites from Russia move into South Africa enough white sold majorly so basic fear happen no longer existed quick lead equality. Many whites fear that black get a chance they slaughter the whites.

 

[abc123]

With South Africa's population divisions this is inevitable anyways. It's worth remembering that while most of the former Transvaal, Natal and Orange Free State will elect mostly-black lower house MPs, that certainly won't be in the case in the major cities or in most of the Cape Province. South Africa's Indian population is overwhelmingly concentrated in Natal, while very large portions of the Cape Colony are either colored or white majority both IOTL and ITTL. There will certainly be White, Colored and Indian MPs from the Highveld areas as well.

Probably, but proportional system with low treshold ( say 3% ) will force parties to make coalitions, and that could be the best way to insure that politics of any Government/Major Party will have to reach across race/ethnic lines...
With First-past-the-post system, that's less sure thing...

 

[abc123]

and I can't honestly think of any good reasons for a non-pariah South Africa to develop an independent space program and launch capability. Satellites? Yes, of course, when Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, and so on have satellites, of course South Africa can afford and will likely have them. Independent launch capability? There's just no reason for it. They can easily have all the actual benefits of space applications without having to spend nearly as much money.

Yep.
I fully agree with that.
Russians ( or ESA ) will launch your satellite in orbit for a fraction of the cost of independent space programme...

 

[Julius Vogel]

Probably, but proportional system with low treshold ( say 3% ) will force parties to make coalitions, and that could be the best way to insure that politics of any Government/Major Party will have to reach across race/ethnic lines...
With First-past-the-post system, that's less sure thing...

Agreed. In a large and multi ethnic country with a history of social fracture, anything that forces absolute majority of voter supported coalition is probably a good thing.

FPTP/unproportional parliamentary systems without coalitions seem to work well enough in stable or homogeneous polities. I'm not so sure they do so well in most other cases

 

[Workable Goblin]

Yep.
I fully agree with that.
Russians ( or ESA ) will launch your satellite in orbit for a fraction of the cost of independent space programme...

They're not launching on Russian rockets until after the Cold War. Before that, ESA or NASA--NASA offered good rates on Shuttle flights at first (promo rates + underestimating costs = real real cheap), so this would hardly break the bank. You might see some SA satellites launch on one of the pre-Challenger flights.