How Would You Change the Yom Kippur War?

The following is a transcript from the Soviet side in a roleplaying game set in an alternate reality Yom Kippur War. What do you do at the last day (all the way at the bottom)? Any ideas would really be helpful for my team and I.

Israel: 415,000 troops
1,500 tanks
3,000 armored carriers
945 artillery units
561 airplanes
84 helicopters
38 Navy vessels

Egypt: 800,000 troops
2,400 tanks
2,400 armored carriers
1,120 artillery units
690 airplanes
161 helicopters
104 Navy vessels

Syria: 150,000 troops
1,400 tanks
800–900 armored carriers
600 artillery units
350 airplanes
36 helicopters
21 Navy vessels

United States: No land forces in region
Sixth Fleet in Mediterranean Sea
Task Force 60 (comprised of the USS Independence and the USS Franklin D. Roosevelt aircraft carrier battle groups)
Task Force 61, an amphibious group (25,000 marines)

USSR: No land forces in region
5th Eskadra in Mediterranean Sea, including 11 submarines, several cruise-missile-equipped cruisers and destroyers, and an array of medium landing ships, minesweepers, frigates, corvettes, and auxiliary ships.


Soviet observers in Syria and Egypt. Strong intelligence presence in region, including Israel. Limited economic interests, except in Egypt and Syria, where we have heavy investment. Lots of our equipment in the region in Arab hands.

United States Defense Condition 4
Soviet Union Defense Condition 4

6 Oct 1973, 0600 Zulu (0800 Jerusalem/0900 Moscow/0200 Washington)

Egyptian forces have crossed the Suez canal and are attacking Israeli positions. Syrian forces have attacked Israeli forces on the Golan Heights.

Arab forces appear to have obtained strategic surprise, Israeli response has been disjointed due to surprise and celebration of Yom Kippur.

====

United States Defense Condition 4
Soviet Union Defense Condition 4

8 Oct 1973, 0600 Zulu (0800 Jerusalem/0900 Moscow/0200 Washington)

Egyptian forces have secured the Bar-Lev line and now hold the east bank of the Suez Canal. They appear to have stopped their forward motion. There are rumors of an Israeli counterattack.

Syrian forces have pushed deep into Golan, and there is a threat of a breakthrough.

Iraqi forces have moved into Syria, and appear to be preparing to support the Syrian attack.

Jordanian forces are on high alert, and have massed on the Jordan River.

Libyan Air Force units are operating out of Egyptian Air Force bases.

Initial Israeli air attacks in Golan and at Suez were not effective due to improved anti-aircraft missiles.

The American Sixth Fleet has gone on alert but remained on station. American forces in Turkey have gone on alert.

The Soviet Black Sea Fleet has gone on alert, and is engaging in training exercises.

Our two Airborne divisions and the Black Sea fleet are on alert.

5th Eskrada informs us that the Sixth Fleet is on alert but is not moving toward Israel.

American forces in Turkey are on alert.

Syria is requesting airborne recon of the Golan Heights and intelligence assistance.

Jordanian troops may be preparing to attack.

Egypt and Syria are requesting resupply flights of anti-aircraft missiles.

==

United States Defense Condition 3
Soviet Union Defense Condition 4

9 Oct 1973, 0600 Zulu (0800 Jerusalem/0900 Moscow/0200 Washington)

The United States has raised it's worldwide alert level to DEFCON 3.

The Israeli counterattack in Suez has been stopped with heavy losses. Apparently heavy use of anti-tank missiles by Egyptian forces was unexpected. Egyptian tanks are crossing Suez.

Syrian forces have exploited seams in the Israelis lines in Golan. They have pushed out of the Heights and now stand on the Jordan River.

Iraqi forces have moved into Golan.

Jordanian forces are on high alert, and have massed on the Jordan River.

Libyan Air Force units are operating out of Egyptian Air Force bases.

Israeli air attacks in Golan and at Suez continue to be ineffective due to improved anti-aircraft missiles.

The American Sixth Fleet has gone on alert but remained on station. American forces in Turkey have gone on alert.

The Soviet Black Sea Fleet has gone on alert, and is engaging in training exercises.

The United States, France, and the United Kingdom have called for immediate Security Council action. UNSC will meet on the morning of October 10.

Arabs are rioting in Jerusalem. Israeli police are preparing to secure the situation.

The United States defense condition has been raised.

Our overflight of Golan was successful. Information given to the Syrians allowed them great success in Golan.

Egypt is requesting anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft missiles. Syria is requesting anti-aircraft missiles. Egypt says they cannot withstand a second Israeli attack.

The Sixth Fleet is still on station near Sicily.

Our airborne divisions are en route to Bulgaria.

The UNSC will meet tomorrow.

==

United States Defense Condition 3 (DEFCON 2 for Mediterranean and Turkey)
Soviet Union Defense Condition 4

10 Oct 1973, 0600 Zulu (0800 Jerusalem/0900 Moscow/0200 Washington)

The United States raised its global DEFCON to 2, but then lowered it to 3. However, forces in the Mediterranean and Turkey remain at DEFCON 2.

The American Sixth Fleet has begun to move toward the Levant.

A large number of fast Soviet freighters have left Black Sea ports and are currently transiting the Straits of Marmara.

An Egyptian counter-attack is underway in Suez.

Syrian forces have failed to cross the Jordan River, but another attack is expected now that Iraqi tanks have entered the fray.

Israeli security forces have attacked Arab protestors in Jerusalem. The King of Jordan has said that brutality against Arabs must stop or Jordan will be forced to assist in securing the peace.

The Soviet Black Sea Fleet remains on alert, and is engaging in training exercises.

UNSC is meeting.

American forces in Germany and Japan have gone on alert and begun exercises.

The American National Guard has been alerted, and leaves are being cancelled.

Elements of the American Second Fleet are transiting the Straits of Gibralter.

French and British naval units are entering the Mediterranean in force.

A Soviet submarine was running silent when the American carrier group centered around the Independence turned toward the Levant. The course of the carrier group led it over the submarine, which now has a clean, 2000 yard shot at the port side of the carrier.

Our submarine backed away after carrier signaled it. It continues to track the American carrier toward the Levant, and we are tracking most major US and NATO naval assets in the Med.

American forces are moving out of cantonment in Germany. We are not certain if it is an exercise.

5th Eskrada has moved toward Turkey to escort the freighters.

==

United States Defense Condition 3 (DEFCON 2 for Mediterranean and Turkey)
Soviet Union Defense Condition 4

11 Oct 1973, 0600 Zulu (0800 Jerusalem/0900 Moscow/0200 Washington)

The American Sixth Fleet continues to move toward the Levant, and will be in position to intercept the Soviet freighters that recently transited the Straits of Marmara.

An Egyptian counter-attack in Sinai is moving forward, and has taken Mitla and Gidi Passes.

Syrian forces, with Iraqi support, are preparing to force the Jordan River again.

Israeli security forces and Arab protesters continue to battle in Jerusalem. Jordanian forces and Israeli border forces have exchanged fire.

The Soviet Black Sea Fleet remains on alert, and is engaging in training exercises.

UNSC is meeting.

American forces in Germany and Japan have gone on alert and begun exercises.

The American National Guard has been alerted, and leaves are being canceled.

Elements of the American Second Fleet are transiting the Straits of Gibraltar.

French and British naval units are entering the Mediterranean in force.

Soviet 5th Eskrada is escorting Soviet fast freighters. They will encounter NATO forces in twelve hours.

Soviet Pacific Fleet puts to sea, and Soviet Far East forces go on alert.

Chinese forces go on alert.

Soviet Baltic Sea fleet surges toward German waters.

Israeli PM makes public announcement: "If Syrian units cross the Jordan River, if Jordanian forces enter the war, if Egyptian forces pass Mitla or Gidi passes, all options will be on the table for retaliation."

The Shah of Iran is mobilizing forces.

China is mobilizing forces.

Fifth Eskrada and freighters will encounter Sixth Fleet in 12 hours.

Message from the United States: "Let us not get eyeball to eyeball again?"

==

United States Defense Condition 3 (DEFCON 2 for Mediterranean and Turkey)
Soviet Union Defense Condition 3

11 Oct 1973, 1800 Zulu (2000 Jerusalem/2100 Moscow/1400 Washington)

Soviets go to DEFCON 3.

American and Soviet naval forces near contact north of Cyprus.

An Egyptian counter-attack in Sinai has paused just past Mitla and Gidi Passes.

Syrian forces, with Iraqi support, are preparing to force the Jordan River at dawn.

Jerusalem is burning from riots. Jordanian forces and Israeli border forces continue to exchange fire, and Jordanian forces have begun to cross the Jordan River.

The Soviet Black Sea Fleet remains on alert, and is engaging in training exercises.

UNSC is meeting.

American forces in Germany and Japan have gone on alert and begun exercises.

The American National Guard has been alerted, and leaves are being canceled.

Elements of the American Second Fleet are passing Sicily.

French and British naval units are entering the Mediterranean in force.

Soviet Pacific Fleet puts to sea, and Soviet Far East forces go on alert.

Chinese forces go on alert.

Soviet Baltic Sea fleet surges toward German waters.

Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces leave cantonment in Europe for "exercises."

Soviet intelligence trawlers begin "aggressive" intelligence collection activities, pressing close to NATO fleets worldwide.

Soviet forces on the Iranian border move to a war footing.

Fifth Eskrada and fast freighters will encounter Sixth Fleet in about an hour north of Cyprus. Detailed rules of engagement are needed.

From China: We'll stand down when you do.

From Iran: We are acting in response to a request from our allies, and we will not mobilize troops on the Soviet border.

==

United States Defense Condition 3 (DEFCON 2 for Mediterranean and Turkey)
Soviet Union Defense Condition 3

11 Oct 1973, 2000 Zulu (2200 Jerusalem/2300 Moscow/1600 Washington)

American cruiser Belknap has rammed Soviet cruiser Admiral Makarov off Cyprus. Both vessels are heavily damaged, and casualties are reported.

Cruiser Admiral Makarov reports that it was deliberately rammed by American cruiser Belknap as it defended our freighters from boarding operations. Makarov has been holed and is taking on water.

Fast freighters and Fifth Eskrada are on course for Syrians and Egyptian forces, shadowed by American forces.

Israel did not respond to our message regarding the possible use of nuclear weapons and how the Soviet Union will not take kindly to that.

From the United States: "We need to keep our forces in check. We will not allow the Israelis to fall alone under the circumstances. We will do everything in our power to stop a nuclear war from happening but we need your assistance. And a cool down with our forces would be a good sign that your with us on this."

==

United States Defense Condition 3 (DEFCON 2 for Mediterranean and Turkey)
Soviet Union Defense Condition 3

12 Oct 1973, 0400 Zulu (0600 Jerusalem/0700 Moscow/0200 Washington)

Golan: A massive artillery barrage has begun on the Jordan River, as Syrian and Iraqi forces begin to attempt a dawn crossing under cover of smoke.

Sinai: Egyptian tanks have pushed out from Gidi and Mitla passes toward the 1967 border.

West Bank: Small numbers of Jordanian troops have crossed the Jordan River into the Israeli-occupied West Bank against minimal Israeli resistance.

Pacific: Soviet, Chinese, Japanese, and American forces remain on high alert in the Pacific. The Soviet Far East Fleet has sortied from Vladivostok.

Baltic: Soviet and Warsaw Pact naval forces are surging toward the Denmark Strait. German and other NATO Baltic fleets have sortied to intercept.

Germany: NATO and Warsaw Pact forces are on alert and engaging in exercises along the border.

Eastern Med: Soviet naval vessels and freighters will arrive in Syrian waters within hours. American Sixth Fleet is shadowing them.

Western Med: French and British naval units and elements of the American Second Fleet are nearing Sicily.

Black Sea: Soviet Black Sea fleet remains on high alert. American forces in Turkey remain on high alert. Two Soviet Airborne divisions remain on alert in Bulgaria.

Iran: Iranian forces begin operations in the Shatt-al-Arab. Iraq denounces this "aggressive activity." Soviet forces on Iranian border are on alert. Pakistan has gone on alert.

Our freighters will enter Syrian waters in two hours.

From the United States: "We need to keep our forces in check. We will not allow the Israelis to fall alone under the circumstances. We will do everything in our power to stop a nuclear war from happening but we need your assistance. And a cool down with our forces would be a good sign that your with us on this. We have been on a collision course in more ways than one, and this incident only shows this. We all need to step back now. Turn back your ships, and allow the belligerent parties to resolve this themselves. However, under no circumstances will we allow the freighters to reach Egypt and Syria and further inflame the situation and will take whatever measures we need to prevent it.If we don't get sanctions now the Israelis are likely to have no other alternative and we both fully agree that Nuclear war is something we both do not want."

We understand from sources that the United States will attack our shipping before it can reach Syrian harbors. However, we are not certain of the accuracy of this report.

Tensions on the German border are extreme. The likelihood of inadvertant hostility is growing every minute.

Israel has not responded to our messages. Intelligence indicates they are arming aircraft with nuclear weapons.

==

United States Defense Condition 3 (DEFCON 2 for Mediterranean and Turkey)
Soviet Union Defense Condition 3

12 Oct 1973, 0600 Zulu (0800 Jerusalem/0900 Moscow/0400 Washington)

Golan: Syrian and Iraqi forces have crossed the Jordan River and are moving toward Haifa.

Sinai: Egyptian tanks have continue toward the 1967 border.

West Bank: More substantial Jordanian forces have entered Israeli territory.

Pacific: Soviet, Chinese, Japanese, and American forces remain on high alert in the Pacific. The Soviet Far East Fleet has sortied from Vladivostok.

Baltic: Soviet and Warsaw Pact naval forces are surging toward the Denmark Strait. German and other NATO Baltic fleets have sortied to intercept.

Germany: NATO and Warsaw Pact forces are on alert and engaging in exercises along the border.

Eastern Med: The United States has declared a blockade on all sea traffic to Israel, Syria, and Egypt. Russian vessels are at the blockade line.

Western Med: French and British naval units and elements of the American Second Fleet are nearing Sicily.

Black Sea: Soviet Black Sea fleet remains on high alert. American forces in Turkey remain on high alert. Two Soviet Airborne divisions remain on alert in Bulgaria.

Iran: Iranian forces begin operations in the Shatt-al-Arab. Iraq denounces this "aggressive activity." Soviet forces on Iranian border are on alert. Pakistan has gone on alert. Indian forces have gone on alert.

From the United States: "We have stated very clearly that we would interpret any action such as sending freighters to Egypt or Syria as an aggressive move that would only escalate the situation. We were telling the truth then, and we are telling the truth now when we say that we cannot and will not allow the cargo to reach Egypt or Syria. We very strongly wish to avoid World War III and urge you to turn the freighters back.

Egypt, Syria, and Israel must be free to determine their fate by themselves, without outside interference."

Our ships are at the US blockade line. Do we push through the blockade?

Pakistan: With Iran on alert, we must be on alert.

India: With Pakistan on alert, we will go on alert.

==

United States Defense Condition 2
Soviet Union Defense Condition 3

12 Oct 1973, 0700 Zulu (0900 Jerusalem/1000 Moscow/0500 Washington)

All earlier reports are unchanged

Russian vessels have reportedly stopped short of the NATO blockade line.

North Korean troops have gone on alert.

Our ships have stopped before the NATO blockade line.

The United States has gone to a global DEFCON 2.

Israel has not responded. We have intelligence that Israeli aircraft have left Dimona, likely armed with nuclear weapons.

North Korea has gone on alert.

Cuba says there's nothing they can do.
 
Were I the Soviets, I'd call for a cease-fire pronto. Things are looking so tense that if someone lights a cigarette on the wrong place on the German border, WWIII might break out.

Perhaps turn the freighters around as a gesture of good faith. The Arabs look like they're winning the war right now, so they won't really *need* whatever's in those freighters anyway.
 
Were I the Soviets, I'd call for a cease-fire pronto. Things are looking so tense that if someone lights a cigarette on the wrong place on the German border, WWIII might break out.

Perhaps turn the freighters around as a gesture of good faith. The Arabs look like they're winning the war right now, so they won't really *need* whatever's in those freighters anyway.

If you continue reading all the way to the bottom, you'll see that Israel is planning to nuke the Arabs.
 
hmm.... the alternate YK war is pretty good... the Syrians did come within a hair of breaking through the Golan heights down into Isreal proper. However, the article doesn't say what happens to the Egyptian forces that left the 'box' around the Suez canal... in OTL, every time the Egyptians ventured outside the AA/AT box around the canal, they got their butts kicked, and I don't see that happening any different here. So, the nukes on the way are probably going to hit Syrian troops only. I'm also a bit skeptical of Jordan taking a large role in the war. At that time, King Hussein had a major grudge against Syria, and would likely watch with glee if the Israelis nuked them. In OTL, bowing to public pressure, all he did was dispatch a single armored unit to Syria. Since he knows that the Israelis have nukes and has a grudge against Syria anyway, I imagine all he'd do is posture on his side of the border and quietly let the Israelis know that he has no intention of crossing it.

But if Israel goes down for good, he'd likely recover the West Bank....
 
Why haven’t the Soviets responded to the US proposals? The scenario to me reads like the USSR is simply blindly following their original strategy of sending support to the Arabs while ignoring the real possibility of an Israeli nuclear response that they knew would be inevitable. It makes no sense.

When it seemed likely that the Arab League would win major victories and breakthroughs in the Sinai and Golan, if I were the Soviet Premier I would contact the Arab leaders and tell them bluntly that if they expected continued Soviet support and possible (emphasise that word to them) protection from an Israeli nuclear strike they will immediately issue a joint proclamation that their armed forces will halt at the 1967 borders once they reach them and they have no other claim against Israel. I would tell them plainly that the KGB has warned that Israel will use its nuclear weapons against their soldiers and possibly against civilian targets including the Aswan High Dam and their cities. I would also tell them that Israel has the capacity to carry out their threats. If they reject our reasonable peace deal then they can expect no support from us. We will, after the cessation of hostilities, begin to vigorously push for a series of concessions from the Israelis and Americans on Palestinian rights and statehood and that Israel will be in no position to maintain a hard line.

I would then call the US President and tell him the same thing and that if he expected our ships to stop their voyage to the area then the US and its allies must halt their naval forces as well. If they agree then the US and the USSR will issue a joint statement that both powers have agreed to a peace proposal based on the above and that both powers will ‘use any means suitable’ to enforce it. I would tell him that I would be calling the Israeli PM next and telling her bluntly that if Israel uses nuclear weapons the USSR reserves the right to retaliate in any way it deems fit to defend its allies.

Once the Arab League declaration is made public and the Soviet offer of a peace settlement is made, public opinion in the west will shift away from confrontation and the domestic pressure in Europe and the US to support it will be massive. Cut the moral rug from under the west and argue for a peaceful but just settlement would be a major win for the Soviet Union.
 
again, that "breakout in Sinai" is pretty problematic. The Egyptians proved incapable of taking and holding land outside of the 'box' in OTL, and I don't see anything here that would change that. Even if the Israelis pulled forces from the Sinai to move against Syria, I'd think the Israelis could hold the line in Sinai, if they were solely on the defensive... they just wouldn't be able to counterattack into Egypt itself, as they did in OTL. It's the Syrians who are the real trouble here... they almost did break through in OTL, and in this ATL, they did it. The Israeli nukes would be aimed at them... or rather, at reinforcements coming over the Golan Heights (I can't imagine Israel nuking enemies inside it's own borders). I also don't see Russia threatening Israel with nuclear retaliation and the US not having anything to say about that....

It's worth noting that there was sentiment in the US for a peace settlement on favorable Arab terms in the US. One of our diplomats at the time noted that the Arabs "had gotten some of their honor back" and now it was time to sit down and talk... so the Russian proposals likely would have had some agreement from the US...
 
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