How would various surviving member of the old order of Europe behave in the lead up to WWII?

Had a part of the old order of Europe, which died in the OTL, narrowly survived to WWII, what would their reaction and policy be if applicable?

Certainly, butterflies would probably prevent these things from happening as they did. Some are impossible outright: asking how Imperial Germany would respond to the Nazi invasion of Poland is ASB as Germany would be the country doing it. On the other hand, it is far from impossible to imagine something akin to the OTL Spanish Civil War happening in a scenario where Imperial Germany is still around, and this thread is more about the latter.

Had Austria-Hungary narrowly survived a late defeat with Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Slovenia, and perhaps parts of the Balkans or Transylvania, who do they go to ally with in the OTL world? What would their policy on the Spanish Civil War be? Out of Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union, is there hope for an alliance or serious non aggression pact with any?

How would a Tsarist Russia that collapses late but survives, fails to make gains, and recentralizes around power around 1926 respond to everything? How would they deal with German attempts to take Austria, Czeck, and Polish territories? Would they be involved in the Spanish Civil War? Who do they support in China? Would they be offended by Italian invasion and subjugation of Ethiopia?

An Ottoman Empire that improbably ends up on the losing side but keeps their Arab territory, getting total control reestablished during the 20s along with oil discovery? How would they respond to Italian conquests in Ethiopia and the Balkans? Do they join Germany against the Soviet Union?

If the Germany does a little better in 1918, the leadership surrenders in the war in late 1918 but does not leave Germany or renounce any throwns, ultimately reestablishes authority, albeit with a weakened and unstable government, and is forced to sign a slightly softer Versailles. How do they deal with extremist movements internally? Do they support anyone in the Spanish Civil War?

How does Italy influence things if Emmanuel shoots Mussolini instead of giving him power?
 
WW2 would either not happen or be entirely different if the "old order" survived. The butterflies are too big.
 
Had a part of the old order of Europe, which died in the OTL, narrowly survived to WWII, what would their reaction and policy be if applicable?

Certainly, butterflies would probably prevent these things from happening as they did. Some are impossible outright: asking how Imperial Germany would respond to the Nazi invasion of Poland is ASB as Germany would be the country doing it. On the other hand, it is far from impossible to imagine something akin to the OTL Spanish Civil War happening in a scenario where Imperial Germany is still around, and this thread is more about the latter.

Had Austria-Hungary narrowly survived a late defeat with Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Slovenia, and perhaps parts of the Balkans or Transylvania, who do they go to ally with in the OTL world? What would their policy on the Spanish Civil War be? Out of Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union, is there hope for an alliance or serious non aggression pact with any?

How would a Tsarist Russia that collapses late but survives, fails to make gains, and recentralizes around power around 1926 respond to everything? How would they deal with German attempts to take Austria, Czeck, and Polish territories? Would they be involved in the Spanish Civil War? Who do they support in China? Would they be offended by Italian invasion and subjugation of Ethiopia?

An Ottoman Empire that improbably ends up on the losing side but keeps their Arab territory, getting total control reestablished during the 20s along with oil discovery? How would they respond to Italian conquests in Ethiopia and the Balkans? Do they join Germany against the Soviet Union?

If the Germany does a little better in 1918, the leadership surrenders in the war in late 1918 but does not leave Germany or renounce any throwns, ultimately reestablishes authority, albeit with a weakened and unstable government, and is forced to sign a slightly softer Versailles. How do they deal with extremist movements internally? Do they support anyone in the Spanish Civil War?

How does Italy influence things if Emmanuel shoots Mussolini instead of giving him power?
There is a theory that the wars of the early 20th century was inevitable because of the nature of political system (expansionist entities in search of more resources) but were simply far more devastating because of advancements in science and technology, as well as industralized manufacturing and production.

I do not know if this is true or not but I wonder if can be applied as a counter-factual to an ATL.

If so, a devastating WW2 would still have happened anyway. Or maybe not, if it was ASB.
 
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No particular war, including WWI and WWII was inevitable. What is inevitable is the wars would happen because the one constant in history is human nature and armed conflict is part of that nature. What was also inevitable was that the cost and toll of any war between industrialized states was going to be far greater than those of the 19th century. In the case of an altered but still recognizable Great War, where the pre-war states and governments survived in some fashion, then the specific OTL local wars of the post-war years and of course WWII as we know it are butterflied away. In the example given not only the actors but the state system are dramatically different. Wars there would be, but in different places at different times between different states. Could something as terrible as WWII broken out in the mid-Twentieth Century with most of the 'old-order' leaders still in place, possibly but not with same when, where, why, and who.
 
WWI was a transformative event. If Austria-Hungary, the Russian Empire, the German Empire or the Ottomans survive they will surely have a completely altered political landscape, much as was the case in the UK, Italy, and France. Likewise, their response to the altered diplomatic landscape will be informed by their changed internal political landscape.

Of the two that I feel the firmest answering for:

Unless the nationalists can work together, or get sidelined in favour of a Christian Democratic/broader right wing party, Austria-Hungary's surging social democrat parties will likely own the show. A SocDem ruled dual monarchy is likely to be opposed to both fascism and Soviet style socialism. They would likely be strong partners with the early Weimar Republic, and (if the Nazis somehow aren't butterflied) they will soon find themselves rather isolated. Aligning with France and becoming a one state (and therefor actually effective) Little Entente seems likely in such a scenario.

Above all else, a surviving Russian Empire will be Paris' debt slave. While it may take issue with the continued existence of Poland, Paris will prevent their pitbull from mauling their poodle. WRT China, maintaining the status quo in Manchuria is to their interest, so jockeying with Japan for influence over the Fengtian clique seems quite possible.
 
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