How would this WWI look?

[Zoidberg12]

That's what I am postulating. What if some more nations happened to join the Central Powers. What would WWI look like if say, hypothetically, Spain, the Netherlands and Sweden joined the Central Powers, with any POD's necessary to do so and still not butterfly away WWI. For example a stronger Carlist Spain, a more anti-British/aggresive Netherlands, etc.

As for the war....

Spain: Gibraltar falls to Spain pretty quickly, invasion through the Pyrenees may be a bit difficult, France fighting a two front war more devastating that OTL, Spanish colonies in Morocco easily taken by French early in war, naval battles with Italy, if they still join. If Portugal still joins, Spain will also be fighting a two front war.

Netherlands: Participate in invasion/occupation of Belgium (I'm fully aware of the issue of Catholics in Flanders, but we can answer that latter), battles in Dutch East Indies, success of both Dutch and British/French depends on troop strength, but with the Raj, Australia and New Zealand and, things may be in Britain's favor in the long run.

Sweden: Naval battles in Baltic Sea, success depends on strength of perspective navies, possible participation in Eastern Front if troops sent successfully.

Any other thoughts?

 

[Anaxagoras]

Gibraltar falls to Spain pretty quickly

Doubt it. The defenses of Gibraltar were immense and the Spanish Army was simply not that good. Besides, the guns of the Royal Navy would be available for its defense. All those old battleships sent to Gallipoli IOTL would find good employment deploying their firepower against whatever Spanish force was foolish enough to take on Gibraltar.

invasion through the Pyrenees may be a bit difficult, France fighting a two front war more devastating that OTL

Some French forces would have to be deployed to the Pyrenees and these could conceivably make a difference in terms of the initial German attack on Paris. But I doubt the Spanish could really achieve much.

Spanish colonies in Morocco easily taken by French early in war

Probably.

naval battles with Italy, if they still join

No. The Royal Navy will rapidly destroy anything that both floats and is Spanish. There will be nothing left for the Italian fleet to do.

If Portugal joins, Spain will also be fighting a two front war.

Interesting idea.

battles in Dutch East Indies, success of both Dutch and British/French depends on troop strength, but with the Raj, Australia and New Zealand and, things may be in Britain's favor in the long run.

It would make for an interesting campaign, but the Dutch colonies would fall to the Allied before mid-1915. What Japan would do in this situation will be interesting.

possible participation in Eastern Front if troops sent successfully.

Probably not enough Swedish troops to make much of a difference. Sort of like the Turkish corps that served against Romania. Hardly anyone ever remembers that it was even there.

 

[Zoidberg12]

Doubt it. The defenses of Gibraltar were immense and the Spanish Army was simply not that good. Besides, the guns of the Royal Navy would be available for its defense. All those old battleships sent to Gallipoli IOTL would find good employment deploying their firepower against whatever Spanish force was foolish enough to take on Gibraltar.



Some French forces would have to be deployed to the Pyrenees and these could conceivably make a difference in terms of the initial German attack on Paris. But I doubt the Spanish could really achieve much.



Probably.



No. The Royal Navy will rapidly destroy anything that both floats and is Spanish. There will be nothing left for the Italian fleet to do.



Interesting idea.



It would make for an interesting campaign, but the Dutch colonies would fall to the Allied before mid-1915. What Japan would do in this situation will be interesting.



Probably not enough Swedish troops to make much of a difference. Sort of like the Turkish corps that served against Romania. Hardly anyone ever remembers that it was even there.

Good points. On a similar note what POD's could make such a war possible? I already mentioned some above, but lets elaborate shall we?

 

[Alternate History Geek]

Netherlands: Participate in invasion/occupation of Belgium (I'm fully aware of the issue of Catholics in Flanders, but we can answer that latter), battles in Dutch East Indies, success of both Dutch and British/French depends on troop strength, but with the Raj, Australia and New Zealand and, things may be in Britain's favor in the long run.

Could the Netherlands have simply been awarded Flanders as a territorial gain? (Ideally the Netherlands would want all of Belgium back, along with maybe Luxembourg, to restore their full pre-1830 territorial extent, but that would be slightly more difficult.) If the Netherlands takes care of Flanders or even better all of Belgium, that would free up German troops for the drive on Paris. Which quite possibly could make Paris fall and WWI end in 1914, as originally planned.

Sweden: Naval battles in Baltic Sea, success depends on strength of perspective navies, possible participation in Eastern Front if troops sent successfully.

Could that make enough of a difference for Russia to sue for peace BEFORE the US joins in WWI, thus allowing Germany to win WWI in 1917? Also, what would be the effect on the Russian Revolution of Russia falling out of the war in 1916/17 instead of 1917/18?

 

[Zoidberg12]

Could the Netherlands have simply been awarded Flanders as a territorial gain? (Ideally the Netherlands would want all of Belgium back, along with maybe Luxembourg, to restore their full pre-1830 territorial extent, but that would be slightly more difficult.) If the Netherlands takes care of Flanders or even better all of Belgium, that would free up German troops for the drive on Paris. Which quite possibly could make Paris fall and WWI end in 1914, as originally planned.

Could that make enough of a difference for Russia to sue for peace BEFORE the US joins in WWI, thus allowing Germany to win WWI in 1917? Also, what would be the effect on the Russian Revolution of Russia falling out of the war in 1916/17 instead of 1917/18?

So adding to a few more nations to the CP could have helped them win? Interesting, this is especially the case with the Netherlands. It may take allot to save Paris in that case. In terms of Flanders I found this qoute from a similar thread....

I am not even sure if the Dutch would have wanted all of Flanders anyway. That much catholics would completely shake up the political balance that had been created at that time. The protestant faction would be margianalized.

Any one more knowledgeable on Dutch Political history than I am? Would Flanders have really made such a difference, or would creating a pan-Dutch state by an end justifies means kinda thing?

 

[Alternate History Geek]

One more thing I thought of about Sweden joining the Central Powers. Would they have added enough naval strength for a combined Swedish-German fleet to sail up the Gulf of Finland and (at worst) bottle up the Russian Baltic Fleet behind Kronstadt or (at best) bombard Petrograd?

 

[Will Kürlich Kerl]

Spain invades Portugal, who was allied with Great Britain.

 

[DrakonFin]

One more thing I thought of about Sweden joining the Central Powers. Would they have added enough naval strength for a combined Swedish-German fleet to sail up the Gulf of Finland and (at worst) bottle up the Russian Baltic Fleet behind Kronstadt or (at best) bombard Petrograd?

There are many unknowable factors that would have an effect on this kind of an attack. Let us say that if the Swedish and Germans sortie to the Gulf of Finland in force in 1914 or in the beginning of the sailing season in 1915, they might get a nice naval victory or even a string of them, push back the Russians towards Kronstadt and use the conditions to, say, support a landing in Finland, quickly making the situation very threatening for the Russian war effort in general.

But if the attack takes place in 1916, after the Russians have managed to build a lot of minefields and bring their coastal batteries in Finland and Estonia into fighting condition, it might lead to an inglorious defeat, a major part of the Swedish fleet being possibly lost to mines and coastal guns alone. Such a bloody nose might in turn force Sweden to keep much of her remaining fleet in home waters for the rest of the war and in fact consider suing for peace herself.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

One more thing I thought of about Sweden joining the Central Powers. Would they have added enough naval strength for a combined Swedish-German fleet to sail up the Gulf of Finland and (at worst) bottle up the Russian Baltic Fleet behind Kronstadt or (at best) bombard Petrograd?

The backbone of the Swedish fleet was a number of coastal defence "battleships" that would have been outclassed by the Tsar's pre-dreadnoughts in the Baltic. The Germans never really risked their own coastal defence vessels or even their pre-dreadnoughts - and they already out-numbered the Russians 4 or 5 to 1 - in the Baltic so I doubt the Swedish squadrons available would make that much difference.

 

[HJ Tulp]

Could the Netherlands have simply been awarded Flanders as a territorial gain? (Ideally the Netherlands would want all of Belgium back, along with maybe Luxembourg, to restore their full pre-1830 territorial extent, but that would be slightly more difficult.) If the Netherlands takes care of Flanders or even better all of Belgium, that would free up German troops for the drive on Paris. Which quite possibly could make Paris fall and WWI end in 1914, as originally planned.

Dutch nationalism was aimed at the colonies and the East Indies in particular. Annexing Belgium (or even just Flanders) was never in the charts. Especially because it would upset the political balance between Protestans and Catholics. The political establishment would never allow that. Neither would they allow themselves to join a war against the UK as that would mean the colonies are lost.

The Netherlands joining the Central Powers at the start of the war might tip the balance in the West in 1914 as logistically the Germans are in a slightly better position but also because the Belgian Army is probably captured at Antwerp.

 

[Baconheimer]

If Portugal joins

In OTL, Portugal joined, and if Spain joins late enough, you have an Iberian War. I think maybe Spain would collapse in a Russian Civil War-esque move.

 

[teg]

In OTL, Portugal joined, and if Spain joins late enough, you have an Iberian War. I think maybe Spain would collapse in a Russian Civil War-esque move.

This. If anything Spain might end up being the Serbia of the Central Powers - it will put up a reasonable fight but for a country that can barely hold on to a few scraps of desert, fighting on a war on three fronts is going to be far too much.

One question that I do find is interesting is what will happen to Spain after the war? France will get the Western Sahara and Morocco certainly. I expect the British would expand Gibraltar's area a bit and the Portuguese would want at least parts of Galicia. If there is a revolution, then the western powers will either directly intervene or occupy buffer zones along the border.

teg

 

[Baconheimer]

This. If anything Spain might end up being the Serbia of the Central Powers - it will put up a reasonable fight but for a country that can barely hold on to a few scraps of desert, fighting on a war on three fronts is going to be far too much.

One question that I do find is interesting is what will happen to Spain after the war? France will get the Western Sahara and Morocco certainly. I expect the British would expand Gibraltar's area a bit and the Portuguese would want at least parts of Galicia. If there is a revolution, then the western powers will either directly intervene or occupy buffer zones along the border.

teg

I would imagine an eraly Spanish Civil War, and in conjunction with the Russian Civil War, any second World War 2 might be Comintern vs. Democracy. Any colonys will probably taken.

 

[DrakonFin]

The backbone of the Swedish fleet was a number of coastal defence "battleships" that would have been outclassed by the Tsar's pre-dreadnoughts in the Baltic. The Germans never really risked their own coastal defence vessels or even their pre-dreadnoughts - and they already out-numbered the Russians 4 or 5 to 1 - in the Baltic so I doubt the Swedish squadrons available would make that much difference.

The Germans might have outnumbered the Russians on paper, but I believe that if we look at the assets actually in use on the Baltic, the numbers were pretty even and for some periods of the war the Russian fleet might have even had a small advantage. Not that it mattered, because the Russian strategy was essentially defensive and very much grounded on the minefields and coastal artillery I mentioned above.

The Germans very much considered the Baltic a secondary theatre and kept the units there understrength to bolster their North Sea forces. What Alternate History Geek proposes here would - I believe - require for the Germans to assume a lot more aggressive stance in the northern Baltic and shift the forces that could be used to implement it to the Baltic theatre. Sweden being in the war could have the effect of causing this change in German policy, with the Germans wanting to show the Swedish that they mean business also in the areas that matter to their Nordic ally and so could demand that the Swedish would also provide a strong input to the war, be it in naval terms or in regards to the land component. Joint sorties would also be a good way to integrate the Swedish fleet to German planning.

 

[BlondieBC]

Spain's importance will be like Italy's. Not in the land taken or battles won, but in the enemy forces diverted. You talk about taking Morocco, which is possible, but only by diverting forces. My guess is that Morocco will not be attacked initially. The problem will be that France will need to keep extra troops there. Then on the main land border between France and Spain, at least a French Army. This will have huge impacts on the war in the early fluid days. You have to look at the forces you think are easily diverted, but holes will appear somewhere. And whether holding the Marne or a better race to the sea, the attack will have lasting issues for the France. You likely flip to a German win (but maybe not Spanish win) scenario. Good chance Gibraltar holds since Spain has so many needs.

Netherlands. Yes it will be hard to hold the Dutch East Indies. But IOTL, they need Japanese help to take Tsingtao, a single fortified port. I think it is more likely we are talking Japanese East Indies. And the better supply and Dutch Armies will mean more gains in initial surge.

Sweden will be decisive. There is a thread from this last year, but there are several issues. First is the Aland Island are unfortified. At a minimum, the Russians will have to pull several extra corp (or more accurately, not transfer from Finland to Poland) to Finland. These extra corps will mean someone benefits, either the Germans or A-H. Probably both. You have to write a TL to get full detail, but it likely means Galicia is not such a disaster for A-H.

 

[BlondieBC]

Could that make enough of a difference for Russia to sue for peace BEFORE the US joins in WWI, thus allowing Germany to win WWI in 1917? Also, what would be the effect on the Russian Revolution of Russia falling out of the war in 1916/17 instead of 1917/18?

Sure easily.

So adding to a few more nations to the CP could have helped them win? Interesting, this is especially the case with the Netherlands. It may take allot to save Paris in that case. In terms of Flanders I found this qoute from a similar thread....

WW1 was a close war that the CP should have won except for 3 huge blunders. 2nd Army in Galicia in 1914. Galicia 1916. USW in 1917. Add any nation to CP or remove nation from Entente means a CP win is expected. It is not so much that Greece is that important, but where the die rolls normally went against the CP, rerolling the dice (butterflies) normally flips the winner.

 

[BlondieBC]

The backbone of the Swedish fleet was a number of coastal defence "battleships" that would have been outclassed by the Tsar's pre-dreadnoughts in the Baltic. The Germans never really risked their own coastal defence vessels or even their pre-dreadnoughts - and they already out-numbered the Russians 4 or 5 to 1 - in the Baltic so I doubt the Swedish squadrons available would make that much difference.

The did not risk until amphibious assaults in 1917. The lacked the land units. Add in a Sweden willing to attack (some argue strong against this item), and the High Sea Fleet will support the landing. It is mostly a political military call for Swedish GHQ. I have seen some strong arguments that based on prewar attitude, Sweden would not attack until 1915 or 1916. If so, then they are being mostly used in northern Finland and Poland.

 

[BlondieBC]

The Germans might have outnumbered the Russians on paper, but I believe that if we look at the assets actually in use on the Baltic, the numbers were pretty even and for some periods of the war the Russian fleet might have even had a small advantage. Not that it mattered, because the Russian strategy was essentially defensive and very much grounded on the minefields and coastal artillery I mentioned above.

Yes, the permanently attached forces were limited, but IOTL, the Baltic commander (Prince Henry at this time) could generally borrow forces if needed. Being both a Grand Admiral and Royalty gives you power. He was generally a good commander and effective, so if the Swede will allow joint operations, the German Navy will support.

 

[Zoidberg12]

In OTL, Portugal joined, and if Spain joins late enough, you have an Iberian War. I think maybe Spain would collapse in a Russian Civil War-esque move.

I know, but I kinda wondered if Spain joining the Central Powers would have any kind of effect on Portugal joining the Allies.

 

[elkarlo]

Spain's importance will be like Italy's. Not in the land taken or battles won, but in the enemy forces diverted. You talk about taking Morocco, which is possible, but only by diverting forces. My guess is that Morocco will not be attacked initially. The problem will be that France will need to keep extra troops there. Then on the main land border between France and Spain, at least a French Army. This will have huge impacts on the war in the early fluid days. You have to look at the forces you think are easily diverted, but holes will appear somewhere. And whether holding the Marne or a better race to the sea, the attack will have lasting issues for the France. You likely flip to a German win (but maybe not Spanish win) scenario. Good chance Gibraltar holds since Spain has so many needs.

Netherlands. Yes it will be hard to hold the Dutch East Indies. But IOTL, they need Japanese help to take Tsingtao, a single fortified port. I think it is more likely we are talking Japanese East Indies. And the better supply and Dutch Armies will mean more gains in initial surge.

Sweden will be decisive. There is a thread from this last year, but there are several issues. First is the Aland Island are unfortified. At a minimum, the Russians will have to pull several extra corp (or more accurately, not transfer from Finland to Poland) to Finland. These extra corps will mean someone benefits, either the Germans or A-H. Probably both. You have to write a TL to get full detail, but it likely means Galicia is not such a disaster for A-H.

Yeah, if the British and Portuguese opened up an additional Iberian front, then that would mean that the British would have not been able to have an OTL secondary front. Scu at Salonkia or the Mesopotamian front would have been scrapped.