How would the world see Brazil had it kept being a major economic power?

Brazil got a tragic economic history. From the end of the empire up until the 1930s we were basically stalled under a kleoptocratic oligarchic republic that kept Brazil as a coffe economy backwater. From 1930 until 1964 Brazil did had a national project led by the populists, that resulted on the brazilian economical school that is called "National developmentalist", that prompted Brazil to be the 12th economy in the world in 1964, but the coup happened, and after a short stagnation the civic-military dictatorship took massive loans to create a artificial economic boom called "The economic miracle" that went from 1968 until 1974. At the time Brazil was the seventh economy in the world, Brazilian goods were showing up in other countries, brazilian cars were sold pretty much anywhere (if you are a american and had a VW beetle or a Karman Ghia, it most likely was built in Brazil), but then things crashed down. The economical plan PND made by the civic-military dictatorship scrapped the social programs of the populist era and changed from a stable progressive growth into a massive initial boom with unseen levels of wealth concentration to be followed by a crash that placed Brazil in a situation even worse than before the coup, the Favelas exploded during the dictatorship and with the media censored the corruption that always had been present, became a chronical problem to the point that basic services like the police were so corrupted that they couldn't properly work, prompting a rise on mortality rates and criminality.

Something I must let clear is that I'm not a economist, I'm a student of diplomacy and so this is what I learned on the classes about the brazilian history, all right? Let's proceed.

Let's say that the coup doesn't happen or it is aborted, something that could have been easily done without the US support as the new historiography noticed that Jango had over 70% approval. The National developmentalist plan continues trying to anchieve a sane amount of growth while the PTB-PSD coalition keeps ruling well into the late 70s, the standart of living continues steadily increasing while the social policies to reduce the favelas are completed, with Brazil reaching the G8 in the mid-late 90s. Under this scenario how Brazil would be seen by the rest of the world?

By the way, there is this brazilian article about the difference of the growth before and after the 1964 coup, it is one of my source. And before anyone asks, I know that Brazil reached the sixth largest economy in the world in 2012, even surpassing the UK, but it was shortly lived and the chronical social problems hindered it.
 
Brazil would be viewed as a much bigger and better version of Australia

Australia got "only" 24 million people, while Brazil surpassed 200 million. I don't think it would be seen as completely big and better because even a Brazil that can reach the top 5 economies still would have a lot of social problems that Australia doesn't have for example. We might have ended the Favelas but the poverty would continue for a considerable part of the population.
 
I wonder what the impact would be on tourism. Would North Americans completely ignore Mexico and fly down to Brazil instead? In the UK it's too far for a weekend trip but still has a slight air of danger about it; like South Africa but much less grim.

I learn from this article that Brazil - the entire country - had 6,588,770 international tourists in 2017, but over two million were from Argentina. According to the Foreign Office "185,858 British nationals visited Brazil in 2017. Despite high crime levels, most visits are trouble free." I imagine the vast majority went to Rio De Janeiro and stayed there.

In comparison Venice by itself had four and a half million international tourists in 2017 and that's just one city, albeit that a lot of those visits were day trips. Madrid, again just a single city, had 6.7m international tourists in the same year.

A wealthy and presumably politically stable Brazil would be a tourist magnet.
 
I wonder what the impact would be on tourism. Would North Americans completely ignore Mexico and fly down to Brazil instead? In the UK it's too far for a weekend trip but still has a slight air of danger about it; like South Africa but much less grim.

I learn from this article that Brazil - the entire country - had 6,588,770 international tourists in 2017, but over two million were from Argentina. According to the Foreign Office "185,858 British nationals visited Brazil in 2017. Despite high crime levels, most visits are trouble free." I imagine the vast majority went to Rio De Janeiro and stayed there.

In comparison Venice by itself had four and a half million international tourists in 2017 and that's just one city, albeit that a lot of those visits were day trips. Madrid, again just a single city, had 6.7m international tourists in the same year.

A wealthy and presumably politically stable Brazil would be a tourist magnet.

Brazil before the dictatorship was indeed a magnet for tourists, as the favelization didn't had exploded yet and the country was surely improving.

1930s:

1960s:

In 1961 president João Goulart (the one that got couped in the reactionary coup in 1964) launched his base reforms, that included the land reform, some laws about the profit of foreign companies (remessa de lucros) and programs to fight poverty in major cities. All of that was pretty much stopped cold, and some reforms even rolled back with the '64 coup.
 
People in TTL would notice similarities between Brazil/the US and wouldn't call the US a developed nation ttl. Why? Well there'd be another example of a highly unequal, not quite third world poor but not up to first world standards of life(note labor law, lack of national healthcare) "Overdeveloped" nation to compare the US too.

Perhaps once the cold war's over they bring back the "second world" phrase and use it to refer to countries in the development range of say the US/poland/hungary/ttl's brazil.
 

Taimur500

Banned
People in TTL would notice similarities between Brazil/the US and wouldn't call the US a developed nation ttl. Why? Well there'd be another example of a highly unequal, not quite third world poor but not up to first world standards of life(note labor law, lack of national healthcare) "Overdeveloped" nation to compare the US too.

Perhaps once the cold war's over they bring back the "second world" phrase and use it to refer to countries in the development range of say the US/poland/hungary/ttl's brazil.
Uhh, brazil has a national healthcare system.
A pretty damn spotty one, but my grandpa had heart surgery free of charge last year, which would most definitely break the bank if we lived in the USA.
Also last month i coughed blood and ran to the public hospital, got a doctor to check my throat, got an x ray done and the doctor checked the exam in about two hours, only had to show my id. Thankfully it was nothing.
Of course this is definitely not the case for everyone, since i live in a small town in a rather affluent state, but it happens.
I should also add that the (admitedly fascist derived) labour laws in brazil are actually pretty good, except for the working hours which are worse than the usa, but we have maternity leave, a 13th salary at the end of the year and other things.
 
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Uhh, brazil has a national healthcare system.
A pretty damn spotty one, but my grandpa had heart surgery free of charge last year, which would definitely break the bank if we lived in the USA.
LOL. Extrapolate that for TTL and the implications would be we'd have a Brazil with a healthcare system somewhere in the bottom half of the OECD, but it'd be national healthcare of some sort while the US would assuming OTL trends be at OTL...
 

Taimur500

Banned
Australia got "only" 24 million people, while Brazil surpassed 200 million. I don't think it would be seen as completely big and better because even a Brazil that can reach the top 5 economies still would have a lot of social problems that Australia doesn't have for example. We might have ended the Favelas but the poverty would continue for a considerable part of the population.
My pet idea is a cuban missile crisis war.
Without possible US backimg the military gets either more bigger doubts about couping the civilian government or a lot more eager, but in turn jângo would probably feel that his country become an island of democracy in a sea of chaos and would be also eager to defend it.
I could see more integration among south america nations if brazil plays its cards right, as some "we are the only ones left and we should stick together" kind of way.
Include mass refugee crisis of qualified europeans and americans and maybe possible deal with france and other europeans for send help and food and receiving refugees in exchange for technology transfer and then we have nice story
 
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I should also add that the (admitedly fascist derived) labour laws in brazil are actually pretty good, except for the working hours which are worse than the usa, but we have maternity leave, a 13th salary at the end of the year and other things.

There is no fascist influence on the CLT. That was made up during the liberal wave in the 1990s.

To be more precise, there is only one article of the CLT that resembles one article of the fascist labour code, that is the article 138, and still that article was about the control of the trade unions, and it came from the soviet labour code. In that case both the soviets, the fascists and Vargas used the same article because they wanted to excerse some power over the trade unions. Apart from that there is none other ressemblance, it is a myth that have been debunked over and over and over again but that is still being pressed without any credibility, using the same logic that Goebbels used of repeting a lie until it becomes real in the eyes of the public.
 

Taimur500

Banned
There is no fascist influence on the CLT. That was made up during the liberal wave in the 1990s.

To be more precise, there is only one article of the CLT that resembles one article of the fascist labour code, that is the article 138, and still that article was about the control of the trade unions, and it came from the soviet labour code. In that case both the soviets, the fascists and Vargas used the same article because they wanted to excerse some power over the trade unions. Apart from that there is none other ressemblance, it is a myth that have been debunked over and over and over again but that is still being pressed without any credibility, using the same logic that Goebbels used of repeting a lie until it becomes real in the eyes of the public.
Stand corrected on this
Now what do u think about the tl idea i have in the post above? Pls criticise it
 
Stand corrected on this
Now what do u think about the tl idea i have in the post above? Pls criticise it

Well... we can have a strong Brazil without having a US screw. But I can agree that in any scenario with the collapse of the american society, Brazil most likely would have taken his place.
 

Taimur500

Banned
Well... we can have a strong Brazil without having a US screw. But I can agree that in any scenario with the collapse of the american society, Brazil most likely would have taken his place.
What you think would be the external polcy of this brazil? Since u study diplomacy
Integration with other south american countres? Some kind of south american ecinomic community? What about relations with portugal? Such war could end salazar regime as military takes over sooner, left wing portugal could be great ally of brazil led by brizola(?) After jango goes out of scene, larger influence in portuguese decolonization? No us soviet money means way less means of armed groups to keep war in angola moçambique, maybe a grand settlement with these countries, portugal brazil and this south america community promising investment and general help?
By now brazil south america and lusoafrica could be more better off than otl despite technology less advanced
 
What you think would be the external polcy of this brazil? Since u study diplomacy
Integration with other south american countres? Some kind of south american ecinomic community? What about relations with portugal? Such war could end salazar regime as military takes over sooner, left wing portugal could be great ally of brazil led by brizola(?) After jango goes out of scene, larger influence in portuguese decolonization? No us soviet money means way less means of armed groups to keep war in angola moçambique, maybe a grand settlement with these countries, portugal brazil and this south america community promising investment and general help?

It is quite difficult for Brizola to get elected in '65 since JK planned to run and Brizola was very radical, he denounced the brazilian bourgeisie on the speech of the central do Brazil, something that made them get even farther from his person. What I believe that could have happened is what you described, integration, maybe a earlier mercosul, but under a second JK government from 65-70. The brazilian government was very close to the Salazarist Portugal under JK (who personally met Salazar), and so most likely something close to what OTL happens, Brazil keeps good relationships with Portugal and later tries to open diplomacy with the newly independent african countries.
 

Taimur500

Banned
It is quite difficult for Brizola to get elected in '65 since JK planned to run and Brizola was very radical, he denounced the brazilian bourgeisie on the speech of the central do Brazil, something that made them get even farther from his person. What I believe that could have happened is what you described, integration, maybe a earlier mercosul, but under a second JK government from 65-70. The brazilian government was very close to the Salazarist Portugal under JK (who personally met Salazar), and so most likely something close to what OTL happens, Brazil keeps good relationships with Portugal and later tries to open diplomacy with the newly independent african countries.
But that not considering nuclear war.
Maybe jango maneuvers to get elected full term in 65, gets courts to accept his candidature if thats the case and beats jk due to popularity of his term and the whole steadying the helm during world crisis If that happens by 1970 jk is near 70 and his impetus migt be not as big due to age and more time since his presidency so youger batch of voters know jango and his protege, protector and chosensucessor brizola instead.
Getting the jk's car treatment for carlos lacerda would help too but idk if jango is dirty enough for that
Without the nato maybe portuguese captains get emboldened earlier and go for broke earlier so a leftier givernment in brazil might be the best bet for collaboration with MFA
Please criticize more
 
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People in TTL would notice similarities between Brazil/the US and wouldn't call the US a developed nation ttl. Why? Well there'd be another example of a highly unequal, not quite third world poor but not up to first world standards of life(note labor law, lack of national healthcare) "Overdeveloped" nation to compare the US too.

Perhaps once the cold war's over they bring back the "second world" phrase and use it to refer to countries in the development range of say the US/poland/hungary/ttl's brazil.
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The US seems to be doing pretty good for a country with the development level of Poland and Hungary.
 

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Uh huh. Take away speculative-related things like most of the finance sector/inflated real estate costs from there. Nevermind things like costs related to the US healthcare system. The Us looks alot better than the reality on the ground shows.

Petrostates, tax havens and in the case of the us/uk/canada/australia overinflated finance sectors are great ways for countries' GDPs to look better. Think of them as being like being a shrimpy guy in a muscle suit.
 
A strong Brazil might be able to get the jump on China in terms of locking down investment opportunities in Africa. They could cast themselves as friends of the global south.
 

Taimur500

Banned
It is quite difficult for Brizola to get elected in '65 since JK planned to run and Brizola was very radical, he denounced the brazilian bourgeisie on the speech of the central do Brazil, something that made them get even farther from his person. What I believe that could have happened is what you described, integration, maybe a earlier mercosul, but under a second JK government from 65-70. The brazilian government was very close to the Salazarist Portugal under JK (who personally met Salazar), and so most likely something close to what OTL happens, Brazil keeps good relationships with Portugal and later tries to open diplomacy with the newly independent african countries.
Also i wonder how jk economic strategy would fare in such scenario, his idea "economic tripod" of foreign funding national private funding and state funding for development has one of its feets kicked off if 1962 war happens as europe is fucked and us hit hard
More developmentalist state based strategy might make more sense in such scenario
 
A wealthier Brazil that avoids authoritarian rule would be a model for other multi-racial societies like South Africa, similar to the way that Switzerland is everyone's example of a workable multilingual/multinational state.

I would guess that Brazil has a similar reputation to OTL as an upbeat, colorful place. Most Americans probably associate Brazil with Carnaval, and being insanely good at football.

The mid to late Cold War was a rough time for democracy in South America. A democratic Brazil could gain a reputation as a peaceful country with a strong, stable democracy, similar to Costa Rica in Central America. The Brazilian junta was one of the founders of Operation Condor, ATL Operation Condor would be very different It depends whether Brasilia decides to shelter dissidents from neighboring countries, or look the other way at the disappearances in the rest of region for geopolitical reasons.

Democracy at home doesn't necessarily translate into democracy promotion abroad, it depends what Brazil thinks is in its geopolitical interest. India is an example of a democracy doesn't try to export its political system the way Anglo and European countries do.

How would Portugal be affected by a more prosperous Brazil? Lusotropicalism would probably be more attractive to Lisbon than OTL. Salazar was firmly opposed to Lusotropicalism in the '30s and '40s, but it became the official ideology of the Estado Novo after Gilberto Freyes visited Portugal in 1951.
 
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