How would the World of Developed if WWI end in 1917

Taking my https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=146365 WIF WWI ended in 1917 how would the Washington treaty of gone what would the world look like by the 1930's.

Would the Ottoman Empire still be around and What about A-H !
What would the French or German government's look like in the 1930's !
What about the British Empire or the USSR how would they of changed and the same with Japan and the US of A .
 
Taking my https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=146365 WIF WWI ended in 1917 how would the Washington treaty of gone what would the world look like by the 1930's.

Would the Ottoman Empire still be around and What about A-H !
What would the French or German government's look like in the 1930's !
What about the British Empire or the USSR how would they of changed and the same with Japan and the US of A .

The Habsburgs are going to have sort their Hungarian problem out - if they can do that, they can survive. If not, then there will probably be an Austro-Hungarian war over Croatia. The likely outcome, since nothing ever goes the way that planners plan, would be for 3 independent successor states
- Austria which includes Slovenia and Bohemia
- Croatia which includes Slavonia, Dalmatia and probably Bosnia
- Hungary, which includes Transylvania and Slovakia

The Ottomans will still be around, and as oil begins to pump from Mesopotamia in large amounts, they have the chance to modernise without collapsing first

Russia is more complixcated and IMHO what happens in Russia will determined things such as where Japan fits into the scheme of things

Bets Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Would the Ottoman Empire still be around and What about A-H !

-On the Ottoman Empire, I can imagine that an unresolved Arab question would lead to a lot of trouble. If it manages to survive, either by finding an "Ausgleich" with the Arabs or in an authoriarian way, the prospects are indeed staggering, especially if they manage to not only control over Iraq, but maybe more of the Arab peninsula - or Baku.

-IMHO, Austria-Hungary should have a 75-25 chance of survival if the war ends in 1917 already with the Monarchy undefeated. There will probably be a lot of trouble with the annexation of Serbia, but I think Vienna might relegate the ugly matters to the Croats who will rule the Serbs like the Hungarians ruled over Slovaks or the Poles over the Ukrainians - only harsher.
Karl I knows that the monarchy needs a general reform. It is very probable, that the Hungarian influence will be targeted before Transleithania becomes even more autonomous. If such conflict becomes armed, I see a short struggle.

What would the French or German government's look like in the 1930's !

-Wilhelm II will still be Kaiser (OTL, he died in 1941). The question is whether the Reich's constitution will have moved towards more Parliament control of the government or not. If not, the pre-1914 situation will be continued - otherwise there will be coalition governments expanding the social state. I expect the Chancellorship usually going to politicians of the Centrum or of the (National or Progressive) Liberal parties.

-In France, I expect the 3rd Republic to go on. A "status quo ante" wouldn't be harsh enough to provoke a system-change.

Over all, such a peace in 1917 would be ideal for a reversed Locarno at some point of time where a codification of minority rights for Francophones (which already existed under German rule) is traded against France accepting the post-1871 borders.

What about the British Empire or the USSR how would they of changed and the same with Japan and the US of A .

The British Empire will be slightly less broke. The USA should be even more isolationist, having played no significant role in the Great War whatsoever.

The USSR is a wild card. What is the peace in the east like? Brest-Litovsk? Will Russia be Communist after all?
 
The problem with Austria-Hungary is that it is governed by its legal situation, which requires every 10 (was it ? or 20?) years the renegotiation of the Ausgleich with Hungary. It can't be ignored, or overlooked by us, as much as by them. The Kingdom of Hungary includes Transylvania, Slovakia and Croatia, and until it doesn't then their fate is interweaved with that of the union, and thus the whole state.

The ARAB problem won't be that much of a problem within the Ottoman Empire - the Hashemites had been problematic for decades, but without British military support they can't mount a rebellion, even if they dared

The main problem will be Ibn Saud, and whether anyone tries to use him as an ally in power politics. If not, the Ottomans COULD reconquer Arabia and reinstall a Rashid, historically friendly to them

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Guys

I've been thinking about this because of the discussion in that thread. However think we 1st need to decide how the war ends as that will influence/dictate much of what happens afterwards.

The best single POD I can think of occurring at a late point might be if news of the mutinies after the failed French spring offensive leaks. Thinking of two main impacts from that.

a) In Germany the moral of the militants rise and they think a quick offensive could complete the collapse of France. They quickly prepare a series of attacks in the area and do drive back the French some distance. However the French troops had made clear they would fight in defence of France, they were just unwilling to make further pointless offensives. Hence, while there is some disorder and some units crack under the pressure the French troops fight bitterly and are only driven back with heavy German losses. Furthermore the advance takes the Germans through the wastelands they had created before the retirement to the Hindenburg Line so their advance quickly runs into logistical problems while the French fall back on their own defences and supply bases.

b) In Russia and Austria there are other thoughts. The Provisional Government in Russia has its confidence in the resilience of the western allies weakened and some start talking of a separate peace. In Austria the new emperor Karl realises his nation desperately needs peace. Initially both are disheartened by the German desire to continue the war to victory but the stalling of the German offensive encourages both parties. Also in Germany as in France there is increasing war weariness.

You then get an agreement between Russia and Austria to make peace. This strengthens both states as it enables them to both offer their populations peace and shorten the line for both powers, while also there is talk about a return of POWs held by each side.

The snowball rapidly gathers momentum. Both powers are also eager for a general peace and encourage their allies to achieve a general settlement. Italy is rapidly willing to end a fruitless conflict and agrees a cease-fire on their front with Austria. Germany and Britain and the newly belligerent America are the powers least willing to make peace but their eastern former allies make clear they will favour either side who make peace over one that will not. Also German casulties continue to be heavy in the west while the over-ambitious Flanders offensive by Haig quickly suffers heavy losses.

Hence in early July a ceasefire is established. Once the guns fall silent it proves impossible for either side to resume conflict, due to both internal and external opposition. This is helped by the internal coup which sees Ludendorff sacked when he argues for a new attack in the west.

The exact terms of the peace take some time to hammer out. Finally it is agreed that:
a) Germany will withdraw to the 1914 borders in the west. [This is necessary to achieve peace, but they do get a confirmation of their hold over A-L and the end of the blockage].
b) In the east Germany makes gains with the establishment of a Polish protectorate and also effective control of Lithuania and Latvia.
c) In the Balkans the defeated allies, Serbia and Rumania pay the price for this with Rumania being reduced to an Hapsburg protectorate. [Possibly also given an Hapsburg king?] N Serbia is also reduced to a protectorate while Bulgaria annexes the south, although with regaining the land it lost in the 2nd Balkan War from Rumania.
d) Outside Europe the German colonies are absorbed by the allies [pretty much as OTL]. Britain gives up most of its gains from the Turks and ceases to support the Arab revolt but establishes a Basran Emirate to complete its control of the Persian Gulf and protect the flank of the Persian oilfields.

Anyway, this was what I was thinking of as a possible way to get the basic world we're talking about. Could go many ways from there.

Steve
 
I am not sure, whether both sides were ready for peace on the basis of sane negotiations in 1917. Karl I wasn't taken serious at all, neither was Woodrwo Wilson (in December 1916) and least of all the German Reichstag.

Your idea is as close as it could get to a good scenario. However, I thought from the beginning that this thread would deal with a peace based on a compromise.

My favourite scenario for peace would POD in late 1917, but only work through the year 1918. (Germany recognizes that with defeating Russia it already achieved strategic victory and could fall back on an absolute defensive stratey in the West whereas repeating a seductive peace offer for France, Britain and Italy in exchange against a recognition of the peace-treaties in the east).
 
I am not sure, whether both sides were ready for peace on the basis of sane negotiations in 1917. Karl I wasn't taken serious at all, neither was Woodrwo Wilson (in December 1916) and least of all the German Reichstag.

Your idea is as close as it could get to a good scenario. However, I thought from the beginning that this thread would deal with a peace based on a compromise.

My favourite scenario for peace would POD in late 1917, but only work through the year 1918. (Germany recognizes that with defeating Russia it already achieved strategic victory and could fall back on an absolute defensive stratey in the West whereas repeating a seductive peace offer for France, Britain and Italy in exchange against a recognition of the peace-treaties in the east).

Hörnla

I must admit I think what you suggest is the most likely way you could get a war that goes past the 1st year ending without a clear victory by either side. Rely on wearing down the western allies by attritional losses, although it would need a much wiser leadership than Ludendorff, or possibly any military leader in Germany or elsewhere. [Since they need to accept that the important thing is the home front and maintaining/restoring moral].

However as you say that ends the war in 1918 at the earliest, possibly later. My idea was to try and find a way that it could be ended in a compromise in 1917, preferably early/mid 1917. I think it would actually stand a chance, especially if the leaders of Russia and Austria realised how important a quick peace was for both their government. If you got that de-facto eastern alliance for peace I think the other states would have to give in or face too great a disadvantage so it might work. After that it would depend on how things develop.

Steve
 
WOULD HAVE

I don't mean to be a Grammar Nazi, but the middle school teacher part of me just has to point out that "Would of" is not correct and make the OP look less intelligent than s/he likely is. :mad:

But my apologies for this rant if the OP does not speak English as their first language...
 
Hörnla

I must admit I think what you suggest is the most likely way you could get a war that goes past the 1st year ending without a clear victory by either side. Rely on wearing down the western allies by attritional losses, although it would need a much wiser leadership than Ludendorff, or possibly any military leader in Germany or elsewhere. [Since they need to accept that the important thing is the home front and maintaining/restoring moral

Well, yes, a certain sense for realities would have been helpful for the German leadership.Clausewitz would have understood the situation better and given more priorities to what is nowadays called "exit-scenarios".
 
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