How would the west view a victorious Spanish Republic?

Thanatos

Banned
Assume the Republic defeats Franco and due to Soviet influence moves closer to full fledged socialism (think a more orthodox Cuba or even Yugoslavia). Also assume a capitalist west and commie east cold war still occurs. How would the west view republican Spain? Would it paint purges of fascists as massacres and support a franco linked opposition? (think Miami)
 

Cook

Banned
Would it paint purges of fascists as massacres and support a franco linked opposition?
There would not be any need to do any painting, there would be massacres. And not just of people suspected of supporting the Falange or the Carlists either; Marxists and the Anarchists would be done for in any Communist victory as well, not to mention any moderate socialists. There was enough bloody retribution on both sides from the first days of the uprising, through to the final collapse of the Republic to make it clear that it hardly mattered which side actually won. Since ‘The West’ at that time consisted of republican leaning France and the Appeasement Britain of Chamberlain, there would certainly not be any support from them for any nationalists in exile. Salazar’s Portugal would be iffy, ideologically inclined to support the nationalists but far too vulnerable to give a haven to nationalist rebels against a victorious republican regime.

Nationalists could be confident of support from Germany and Italy though. You could expect Spanish exiles joining the Italians, the German SS or, failing that finding a home in the French foreign legion.

A communist led Spain isn’t going to be able to stay out of the Second World War though.
 
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A communist led Spain isn’t going to be able to stay out of the Second World War though.

You think the Germans would invade?

Doesn´t seem like a good idea. If the republic had won the falangists that means they know how to conduct warfare. I´d expect the pyrenees to be bloody.

If Spain is on the allies side in WW2 the mediterranean would be even more in the allies hand.
 
Republican Spain

I get the sense on here that people are assuming that a victorious Republican Spain would have become a Communist Spain.

I just don't see that. The Republicans were of the Left but that doesn't make them Marxists or pro-Moscow. If anything, they are more in the tradition of western European socialists.

A victorious Republic (I'll assume the rebellion ends in 1939) would probably try to keep its neutrality but I suspect that Hitler, once having defeated France, would have tried to seek a degree of revenge for the setback in Spain by trying to conquer the country with the support perhaps of Salazar's Portugal.

In an echo of the Napoleonic Wars, it's possible Spain, facing a German Army on its border, would have joined the western allies in 1940 and what we might have seen in the spring of 1941 (once the attempt to invade Britain had been thwarted) would have been a German invasion of Spain to neutralise it as a potential base for allied forces to attack France.

So it's a Spanish campaign rather than a Balkan campaign which delays Barbarossa in 1941 and leaves German troops facing an evacuated Gibraltar.

Going on, would Operation Torch have been possible with German aircraft in southern Spain and possibly Portugal? Would a Spanish Resistance have developed to harry the occupiers (Spain is well suited to resistance movements).

It's hard to see this changing the fundamentals to be honest and with the landings in southern France in the autumn of 1944, the German garrison in Spain is threatened with being cut off which indeed happens. The resistance is able in the spring of 1945 to oust most German troops from the country and the Spanish garrison capitulates on May 2nd 1945.

Post-war, Spain is exhausted but receives Marshall Aid from the allies and a democratically-elected Republican Government is restored in Madrid. Spain joins NATO in 1949 and the EEC in 1960.
 
Would not Spain do better than Greece in OTL. Nearer to British assistance and having the Pyranese, virtually a natural Maginot line but with no way around?
 
Would not Spain do better than Greece in OTL. Nearer to British assistance and having the Pyranese, virtually a natural Maginot line but with no way around?

Greece had (highly) defensible terrain too in the north. I don't think the pyrennes ould be such a big barrier.

IMHO the timeline would have ti define when and how the Republicans won to determine which impact this would have on history.

Please specify...
 
Say that there is indeed a Spanish Republic, perhaps not communist in nature but definitely not fascist, how would the Nazis deal with southern France/the Vichy regime?
 
Hiter and Benny would lose face in their failure; and revengement was kind of a big deal for both of them... and with France getting whipped silly in 6 weeks and surrendering and 100 German and 32 Italian divisions (nearly complete in tact all around) just sitting in France without much to do; it would strike me that both men would want to settle that score; and most certainly have the resources at hand to do so
 
Is there enough place in spain for 132 divisions?

no and spain's realistic field army would be lucky to be half the size of france (say 30 divisions for arguments sake)

A realistic German force would be about 45-55 divisions with the spearpoints being handled by the mountain corps a bunch of brigaded together Jaeger battalions and probably a single panzer corps for encirlcements in the lower lying areas in the interior; the majority of the formations would be for flank protection and holding actions whilst the two spearhead corps and the luftwaffe did the majority of the fighting

figure 3 or 4 italian corps 10-12 divisions participate as well; perhaps being given a role of laying seige to barcelona a la Romania's early participation in Barbarossa... they might also take the Balearic islands in amphibious landings or parachute drops
 
I wonder if an early defeat - say 36/7 would still necessarily result in an Axis invasion after a defeat of France. With all of the butterflies of an early defeat of the Nationalists all sorts of things could change too, with the wider European conflict.
 
I wonder if an early defeat - say 36/7 would still necessarily result in an Axis invasion after a defeat of France. With all of the butterflies of an early defeat of the Nationalists all sorts of things could change too, with the wider European conflict.

nationalist defeat means the cvt and the condor legion failed (maybe even being embarrassingly captured or having to evacuate with their tails between their legs)... hitler and benny were not big on losing face

otherwise, a surviving republican spain is not going to be friendly to italy and germany (after all they sent troops to fight for franco)... so even if they don't join the allies outright; they would be a "hostile" neutral... and having a hostile neutral on your border is quite a bit different than what Hitler had in otl (a friendly neutral allowing Germany to rape them economically)
 
It depends on which Republicans. And whether Germany invades Spain.

If they are reasonably level-headed socialists, the UK holds its nose and ignores the odd church-burning or nobility-lynching and makes nice. There's a lot more dangerous and odious countries out there, they want to keep Gibralter protected, it might be nice to have the option of a front in Southern France at some point, and they'd rather the Stalinists don't get in. (IOW, a bit friendlier than OTL Allied policy to Franco's Spain, since Republican Spain is presumably not providing aid to the Axis.)

If it's Stalinists, then Spain is treated as part of the USSR as far as diplomacy goes.

If Germany invades Spain, do whatever it takes to hold Gibraltar, plus there's a lot more coastline to raid and partisans to supply, but on the downside there's even more U-boat bases.
 
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