I read Conroy's 1901 AH about a German attack on the US in 1901 (which for those of you who have not read it, is something of an Americawank, even to the point of giving William McKinley a convenient heart attack to get Teddie Roosevelt into the White House). It occurred to me that if such an attack had occurred one year earlier, the scenario might have led to a quick US settlement.
The difference of course is, that 1900 was an election year. A German attack that occupied New York City and possibly Connecticut, Rhode Island and perhaps even Massachusetts in say, June or July 1900 would be an attack the McKinley Administration would have needed over with by the time of the November elections, simply because these were Republican states whose elections would be interfered with, potentially costing McKinley enough electoral votes for the Democrat William Jennings Bryan to win (has anyone done a Bryan victory in 1900 TL?) Since McKinley was initially against the Spanish American War to begin with, yes, I could see McKinley throwing in the towel and ceding Germany Cuba, the Philippines, Hawaii, a free hand in Venezuela and perhaps even Alaska to get them out of New England before they totally screwed up the election (which he would probably lose after throwing in the towel anyway).
The US is at it's most vulnerable to making a dishonorable and humiliating peace (the definition of surrender changed for us when we put unconditional before it during WWII) when it is at a military disadvantage during an election year (and at it's least vulnerable after the election has been held).. Jefferson Davis and George McCllelan and Abraham Lincoln all understood this in 1864. Ho Chi Minh and Pham van Dong understood this in 1968. Ayatollah Khomeinei understood this in 1980 (and preferred to deal with Ronald Reagan). Kaiser Wilhelm IOTL never did understand this, not in 1900 and not in 1916--or he wouldn't have instituted unrestricted submarine warfare against US shipping. And Konoe and Tojo didn't understand this either--or they would have taken Southeast Asia starting in June 1940, monsoon season or no,, knowing that thereafter it would be a fait accompli for what would likely be a Wilkie Administration.
Granted, if a McKiney Administration had to make a humiliating peace there would be demands for revenge against Germany, particularly from Southerners. But the US would likely simply bide it's time until 1914 and then join the Entente--and WWI three years earlier than IOTL.