How would the Korean War go if Dewey won?

If Tom Dewey had been elected U.S. President in 1948, would there have been a Korean War still?


If the Korean war began on schedule (as in OTL), would it have ended any differently if Dewey was President?
 
If Tom Dewey had been elected U.S. President in 1948, would there have been a Korean War still?


If the Korean war began on schedule (as in OTL), would it have ended any differently if Dewey was President?

Two obvious questions;

1) Does he still make the equivalent of the three statements Truman did that clearly implied the US would not oppose a North Korean invasion?

2) Does he deal with MacArthur differently, particularly after Inchon?
 
Two obvious questions;

1) Does he still make the equivalent of the three statements Truman did that clearly implied the US would not oppose a North Korean invasion?

2) Does he deal with MacArthur differently, particularly after Inchon?

Truman didn't do that, that was a gaffe by his Sec. of State.
 
Truman didn't do that, that was a gaffe by his Sec. of State.

Truman was in charge.

According to General Mathew Ridgeway's history of the war, US personnel in South Korea before the war were under strict orders to leave the country immediately in the event of war. This was not a secret order, my understanding it that it was at least partly to try to prevent the South Korean President from attacking North Korea as he kept saying he would do. Korea had been known to the US since the 19th Century but considered not important enough to pick a fight with its neighbours Russia, Japan and China over, and this attitude was dominant right up to the North Korean invasion.

Ridgeway, who was in command of UN forces in Korea after MacArthur, also states that the South Korean army "...was not trained, organised or equipped to fight a conventional enemy." This was not a failure on the part of US advisers, it was policy. This policy from the top - ultimately the President - done for carefully worked out reasons of state.

The question that started this thread was about what Dewey might have done that would have changed the Korean War and its outcome and one possibility would be to have thought out 'what do we do if the North attacks?' and to clearly articulate that policy in the appropriate forums.

Another would be to reign in MacArthur during the pursuit to the Yalu, when his public statements did much to convince Mao to put his army into the war.

The two changes are not mutually exclusive of course.
 
To begin with with Dewey as President there would have been no statement putting South Korea out of our defensive line. This would cause Stalin to reign in the North Koreans. Without assurance of Soviet arms it is unlikely that the North Koreans would attack.
Another question is would a Dewy Administration allow the US military to fall in such a state that it was so poorly trained that it suffered serious loses in the beginning of the Korean War.
 
Two obvious questions;

1) Does he still make the equivalent of the three statements Truman did that clearly implied the US would not oppose a North Korean invasion?
He didn't say that, and it's an irrelevant statement.

2) Does he deal with MacArthur differently, particularly after Inchon?
No. Dewey isn't a softie, but he's not as tough as Truman either.
 
To begin with with Dewey as President there would have been no statement putting South Korea out of our defensive line. This would cause Stalin to reign in the North Koreans. Without assurance of Soviet arms it is unlikely that the North Koreans would attack.
Another question is would a Dewy Administration allow the US military to fall in such a state that it was so poorly trained that it suffered serious loses in the beginning of the Korean War.

Though I'm not 100% convinced about the first half of your statement, I'd wager that a more aggressive foreign policy on the part of Dewey might avert the war entirely as you suggest. Then again, the US position in OTL was kinda ambiguous (there were some remarks made suggesting they would defend Korea in addition to the ones that they wouldn't) so I'm not entirely sure if the US made a stronger stand if that would completely dissuade the USSR.

However I completely agree that Dewey would immediately begin undoing a lot of the damage done by Truman in his first term to the Armed forces. Under Dewey you're probably going to see at the very least a 10%-20% increase in defense spending to try and bring the US military up to optimum strength. This will be especially apparent regarding the Army and Marines both of which suffered immensely under the Truman administration and ironically did most of the fighting in Korea. I'd wager that if the war starts in 1950 with a Dewey Administration the Army will probably have 2-4 combat ready divisions (as opposed to the 1 in OTL, the 82nd).
 
What was Deweys stands of defense politics? Would he rise the defense budget?
At least IOTL the US-forces were ill prepared even for a limited war.
 
However I completely agree that Dewey would immediately begin undoing a lot of the damage done by Truman in his first term to the Armed forces.

USA had ample defense budget between end of WW II and beginning of the Korean War. The Department of Defense and the services were simply incapable of declaring clear priorities and decided to spend simply on just about everything.
 
To begin with with Dewey as President there would have been no statement putting South Korea out of our defensive line. This would cause Stalin to reign in the North Koreans. Without assurance of Soviet arms it is unlikely that the North Koreans would attack.
Another question is would a Dewy Administration allow the US military to fall in such a state that it was so poorly trained that it suffered serious loses in the beginning of the Korean War.


A 1949-53 Dewey administration would have been more isolationist than OTL, so expect the US Military to be even LESS well prepared for a war, and very likely wouldn't push to defend Korea in the first place.
 
USA had ample defense budget between end of WW II and beginning of the Korean War. The Department of Defense and the services were simply incapable of declaring clear priorities and decided to spend simply on just about everything.

Though this is partly true, Truman's government was determined to cut the size of the US military and consistently reduced it's budget in 1949 and 1950. I don't see a Dewey government doing the same thing, in fact I think they would do just the opposite. They may not have their priorities in line, but an increase in funds means that some of that money's going to trickle down to troop levels and that's going to raise the effectiveness of the US Military in the upcoming war. (Assuming there was one...)

A 1949-53 Dewey administration would have been more isolationist than OTL, so expect the US Military to be even LESS well prepared for a war, and very likely wouldn't push to defend Korea in the first place.

Frankly, I'm not sure where you're coming from. Dewey AFAIK came from the more interventionist side of the Republican party. He sure wasn't an isolationist like Taft...care to provide some evidence?
 
...According to General Mathew Ridgeway's history of the war, US personnel in South Korea before the war were under strict orders to leave the country immediately in the event of war. This was not a secret order, my understanding it that it was at least partly to try to prevent the South Korean President from attacking North Korea as he kept saying he would do.....

The US had also deliberately restricted the weapons supplied to the South Koreans with only a few training aircraft and very limited artillery (with nothing over 105mm) to prevent them from having offensive capabilities.

USA had ample defense budget between end of WW II and beginning of the Korean War. The Department of Defense and the services were simply incapable of declaring clear priorities and decided to spend simply on just about everything.

Example: 1947 budget. USN asks for $6.3 billion. Cut by Budget Bureau and President to $4.2 billion. Cut again by congress to $4.1 billion. The army got it even worse. Pretty much the only force that was getting what they asked for up until 1950 was the USAF thanks to a well run PR campaign against the other two services.

Korea was looked up by the Soviets as a low risk option. Unless Dewey's administration makes it absolutely clear that they will fight to protect South Korea, it's going to happen anyway.

As for dumping MacArthur, that too is going to happen regardless as he's a dumb SoB who can't keep his mouth shut.

What I could see happen differently is that it might not be put to the UN. So the response would have a lot fewer nations contributing.
 
Example: 1947 budget. USN asks for $6.3 billion. Cut by Budget Bureau and President to $4.2 billion. Cut again by congress to $4.1 billion. The army got it even worse. Pretty much the only force that was getting what they asked for up until 1950 was the USAF thanks to a well run PR campaign against the other two services.

Yet in 1950 the USAF was jn terms of modern aircraft the largest in the world, USN was a navy second to none and the US Army was in funding second only to Soviet Army. The US armed and DoD assumed that any war wouldn't be one of a surprise attack, thus they kept a large selection of capabilities partly funded instead of focusing on keeping combat ready unit ready for action. When Korean War mobilization started the US Armed Forces started to expand and by 1952 were very powerful indeed.

Any increase in US defense spending would most likely mean just larger but as hollow forces. Perhaps an Universal Military Service or something like that?

Now, pre-Korean War the US could have funded a smaller, but combat ready armed forces more powerful than anything in the world (except in ground combat forces) if it wanted to. A kind of Reichwehr approach to demobilization, if one wants to compare with another time and another country. In hindsight this would have been far more useful than the route chosen historically.
 
Yeah the USAF did rather well out of DefSec Johnson (board member of Consolidated) and AF Sec Symington. The army a lot less so.

Johnson boasted about how much he had cut the budgets of the Navy and Army. Officers in Japan spoke of how there was no money for training and that they were still using leftovers from WW2 - in the early days of Korea the 24th division had insufficient radios and were stuck with the ancient 2.35" bazooka instead of the 3.5" version which needless to say was less than effective against the T-34's of the North Koreans.

At the very least a Dewey administration doesn't have the Johnson bias against all non-AF service branches which can only improve things for them.
 
Frankly, I'm not sure where you're coming from. Dewey AFAIK came from the more interventionist side of the Republican party. He sure wasn't an isolationist like Taft...care to provide some evidence?
Dewey has to appease the Taft faction, which control Congress. However, is he more likely to do this domestically, as Eisenhower did, or foreign policy wise? Dewey already has Attorney General (and later Justice of the Supreme Court) J. Edgar Hoover, so don't think of him as a Shining White Knight (though I think he was definitely the best nominee of the Republican Party since FDR was elected).

I could see Dewey eschewing the UN and arming the South Koreans more than Truman did, especially if the Dulles get in there (and they would). It would be very interesting if the Truman Administration's fears that South Korea would invade the North came true.
 
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