If Tom Dewey had been elected U.S. President in 1948, would there have been a Korean War still?
If the Korean war began on schedule (as in OTL), would it have ended any differently if Dewey was President?
Two obvious questions;
1) Does he still make the equivalent of the three statements Truman did that clearly implied the US would not oppose a North Korean invasion?
2) Does he deal with MacArthur differently, particularly after Inchon?
Truman didn't do that, that was a gaffe by his Sec. of State.
He didn't say that, and it's an irrelevant statement.Two obvious questions;
1) Does he still make the equivalent of the three statements Truman did that clearly implied the US would not oppose a North Korean invasion?
No. Dewey isn't a softie, but he's not as tough as Truman either.2) Does he deal with MacArthur differently, particularly after Inchon?
To begin with with Dewey as President there would have been no statement putting South Korea out of our defensive line. This would cause Stalin to reign in the North Koreans. Without assurance of Soviet arms it is unlikely that the North Koreans would attack.
Another question is would a Dewy Administration allow the US military to fall in such a state that it was so poorly trained that it suffered serious loses in the beginning of the Korean War.
However I completely agree that Dewey would immediately begin undoing a lot of the damage done by Truman in his first term to the Armed forces.
To begin with with Dewey as President there would have been no statement putting South Korea out of our defensive line. This would cause Stalin to reign in the North Koreans. Without assurance of Soviet arms it is unlikely that the North Koreans would attack.
Another question is would a Dewy Administration allow the US military to fall in such a state that it was so poorly trained that it suffered serious loses in the beginning of the Korean War.
USA had ample defense budget between end of WW II and beginning of the Korean War. The Department of Defense and the services were simply incapable of declaring clear priorities and decided to spend simply on just about everything.
A 1949-53 Dewey administration would have been more isolationist than OTL, so expect the US Military to be even LESS well prepared for a war, and very likely wouldn't push to defend Korea in the first place.
...According to General Mathew Ridgeway's history of the war, US personnel in South Korea before the war were under strict orders to leave the country immediately in the event of war. This was not a secret order, my understanding it that it was at least partly to try to prevent the South Korean President from attacking North Korea as he kept saying he would do.....
USA had ample defense budget between end of WW II and beginning of the Korean War. The Department of Defense and the services were simply incapable of declaring clear priorities and decided to spend simply on just about everything.
Example: 1947 budget. USN asks for $6.3 billion. Cut by Budget Bureau and President to $4.2 billion. Cut again by congress to $4.1 billion. The army got it even worse. Pretty much the only force that was getting what they asked for up until 1950 was the USAF thanks to a well run PR campaign against the other two services.
Dewey has to appease the Taft faction, which control Congress. However, is he more likely to do this domestically, as Eisenhower did, or foreign policy wise? Dewey already has Attorney General (and later Justice of the Supreme Court) J. Edgar Hoover, so don't think of him as a Shining White Knight (though I think he was definitely the best nominee of the Republican Party since FDR was elected).Frankly, I'm not sure where you're coming from. Dewey AFAIK came from the more interventionist side of the Republican party. He sure wasn't an isolationist like Taft...care to provide some evidence?