How would the Japanese have resisted a American/Soviet invasion?

If the Soviets waited and weren't repulsed on landing for whatever reason I'm sure they'd be able to take the whole of Hokkaido without much trouble. The problem is actually mostly with what Stalin wants to do with it. Hokkaido is damn near empty compared to the rest of Japan and doesn't have much going on for it outside of arable land which is only sorta useful because of the harsh climate. I don't think Hokkaido as its own country would work. Maybe if Stalin was somehow able to get Tohoku as well you could see an actual Communist state in Japan, but that's a bit on the ASB side and it would be pretty much 100% reliant on the USSR still with the exception of maybe agriculture which Tohoku could do a good job with.

Maybe Stalin could grab Hokkaido and use it as a bargaining chip along with the Kurils and Karafuto to get a mostly-neutral Japan like in Austria OTL?
 

trurle

Banned
If the Soviets waited and weren't repulsed on landing for whatever reason I'm sure they'd be able to take the whole of Hokkaido without much trouble. The problem is actually mostly with what Stalin wants to do with it. Hokkaido is damn near empty compared to the rest of Japan and doesn't have much going on for it outside of arable land which is only sorta useful because of the harsh climate. I don't think Hokkaido as its own country would work. Maybe if Stalin was somehow able to get Tohoku as well you could see an actual Communist state in Japan, but that's a bit on the ASB side and it would be pretty much 100% reliant on the USSR still with the exception of maybe agriculture which Tohoku could do a good job with.

Maybe Stalin could grab Hokkaido and use it as a bargaining chip along with the Kurils and Karafuto to get a mostly-neutral Japan like in Austria OTL?
Too much trouble for too small return (or more likely, international trouble packed together with domestic trouble). Karafuto and Chishima already has become a bargaining chip..and bargaining continues till today.
 
The Wallies had a large number of specialist assault vehicles by 1945 and use of tactical Aircraft had become something of an art form

I would imagine that every Churchill tank that was capable of being shipped to the theatre would have been converted to a croc and the method of slow methodical advance using overwhelming firepower would be used to minimise infantry losses.

As for the Russians what Airbourne forces did they have in 1945?

Don't forget that the US had supplied a large number of ships to Russia in 1945 (about 100) for the express purpose of fighting the Japanese - these included some Assault ships - however actual amphibious operations after VJ day did result in heavy losses for the Russians (relative to the number of troops used).
 

trurle

Banned
I would imagine that every Churchill tank that was capable of being shipped to the theatre would have been converted to a croc and the method of slow methodical advance using overwhelming firepower would be used to minimise infantry losses.

The method does not work well in mountains. Will be a lot of places unreachable by flame of Churchill Crocodile flamethrower. Actually, majority of Japan is tank-safe zone, because Japan is 80% mountains by area.
Also, volcanic ash terrace (an oversized and steeper version of normal river terrace) is "interesting" feature of Japanese relief for any would-be attacker. Along Sagami river in particular. If not enough, see at the mountain-slope tea plantations which are "natural" anti-tank obstacle. Finally, beware of floodable rice paddies separated by roads just wide enough for the lightest cars.
 
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The method does not work well in mountains. Will be a lot of places unreachable by flame of Churchill Crocodile flamethrower. Actually, majority of Japan is tank-safe zone, because Japan is 80% mountains by area.
Also, volcanic ash terrace (an oversized and steeper version of normal river terrace) is "interesting" feature of Japanese relief for any would-be attacker. Along Sagami river in particular. If not enough, see at the mountain-slope tea plantations which are "natural" anti-tank obstacle. Finally, beware of floodable rice paddies separated by roads just wide enough for the lightest cars.

You have just described Italy - where the Churchill proved to be very useful
 
Have any of you read The Red's Decisive Darkness timeline? That may answer the question (to be fair, the most extreme elements of Imperial Japan had purged the (relative) moderates after said moderates tried to surrender).

Surprised it took so long for anyone to mention The Red's outstanding and just concluded timeline.

Quibble over the details if you like, but I think he's right to think it would have been a very grim and bloody affair.
 

trurle

Banned
You have just described Italy - where the Churchill proved to be very useful
You should not make a bold statements before actually comparing both countries.
See map:
rsz_italy_vs_japan.jpg

You may notice a wide proliferation of pale-green in Italy which is indicative of cropland (on gentle slopes) rather than jungle/forest on steep slopes of Japan. I do not count here Alps (North Italy) which did not see much fighting in 1943-1945. My personal impressions during hiking in both Italy and Japan was also quite different. Central Apennines are..boring. Numerically speaking, Appenines has 14 mountains over 2000 meters. Japan has 101, although of them 2/3 are concentrated in massifs between Lake Biwa and Kanto Plain.
 
You may notice a wide proliferation of pale-green in Italy which is indicative of cropland (on gentle slopes) rather than jungle/forest on steep slopes of Japan. I do not count here Alps (North Italy) which did not see much fighting in 1943-1945. My personal impressions during hiking in both Italy and Japan was also quite different. Central Apennines are..boring. Numerically speaking, Appenines has 14 mountains over 2000 meters. Japan has 101, although of them 2/3 are concentrated in massifs between Lake Biwa and Kanto Plain.

Yes, Italy's terrain is merely challenging.

Japan's is downright brutal.
 
You should not make a bold statements before actually comparing both countries.

I might

See map:
View attachment 301355
You may notice a wide proliferation of pale-green in Italy which is indicative of cropland (on gentle slopes) rather than jungle/forest on steep slopes of Japan. I do not count here Alps (North Italy) which did not see much fighting in 1943-1945. My personal impressions during hiking in both Italy and Japan was also quite different. Central Apennines are..boring. Numerically speaking, Appenines has 14 mountains over 2000 meters. Japan has 101, although of them 2/3 are concentrated in massifs between Lake Biwa and Kanto Plain.

See here is the thing - I get it Japan is mountainous - but where are the towns cities and industry and the majority of its farm land?

Not in the mountains - the majority is on or near the coastline - the so called Plains and lowlands - where most of the people are - here is the planned landing and initial assault zones for Coronet - you may notice the Green areas where the allies are landing and intending to take and the Pink zones (mountains)which they are not.

p_122.jpg


Once the majority of the Urban areas and arable land has fallen to the allies (and Im not suggesting that it will be a picknick) the Japanese resistance effectively becomes an insurgency type war with man packed weapons vs the most powerful army's the world has ever seen and ones not constrained by 'Heroic restraint' ie they will use every weapon in the arsenal.

The Wallies had done insurgency before and in this particular case no one is supplying said guerrillas with weapons supplies expertise and political support

At some point between the first Allied landings and the last mountain village consigned to fire the Japanese government will have thrown in the towel - and for the sake of the Japanese peoples I hope that said towel throwing is not long after the first LSTs hit gravel.
 

trurle

Banned
I might



See here is the thing - I get it Japan is mountainous - but where are the towns cities and industry and the majority of its farm land?

Not in the mountains - the majority is on or near the coastline - the so called Plains and lowlands - where most of the people are - here is the planned landing and initial assault zones for Coronet - you may notice the Green areas where the allies are landing and intending to take and the Pink zones (mountains)which they are not.

p_122.jpg


Once the majority of the Urban areas and arable land has fallen to the allies (and Im not suggesting that it will be a picknick) the Japanese resistance effectively becomes an insurgency type war with man packed weapons vs the most powerful army's the world has ever seen and ones not constrained by 'Heroic restraint' ie they will use every weapon in the arsenal.

The Wallies had done insurgency before and in this particular case no one is supplying said guerrillas with weapons supplies expertise and political support

At some point between the first Allied landings and the last mountain village consigned to fire the Japanese government will have thrown in the towel - and for the sake of the Japanese peoples I hope that said towel throwing is not long after the first LSTs hit gravel.
Not that simple. The major coastal plains were (Kanto plain and Nagoya) have the waterways flanked by mountainous peninsula within artillery range. Furthermore, the largest plains are actually reclaimed swamp which is easy to turn back to swamp again. Easy to land, difficult to advance, reinforce and supply. Also major population centers do exist in narrow (compared to artillery range) inland valleys which represent a natural choke-points. Just few of these: Kyoto, Nara, Matsumoto, Kofu, Asahikawa and Morioka cities. Actually all these cities held rear bases of Japanese armies in 1945. Some cities even reside in volcanic craters (Aso). Basic Japanese plan was to give up the ~10 km deep coastal area and to whittle down US forces by artillery fire from mountains, while militia forces prevent rapid advance up the said mountains, using choke points to negate US advantage in numbers and firepower. The Allies took 2 years to take majority of Italy, even with easier terrain, less strained logistics and more cooperative local populations. The campaign in Japan may take approximately the same time or even longer before degenerating into guerrilla warfare. Assuming the centralized surrender do not happen, my estimation is 9 to 30 months until Kyoto and Matsumoto cities (the last major industrial centers) could be taken. Time is very sensitive to minor effects like weather or tactical decisions. War for choke-points is very chaotic by definition.

The basic math the Japanese planners of last stage of Pacific war used:
1) The kamikaze were expected to kill 3 US men per Japanese pilot, after corrections for radar shadows from landmass. For "Operation Downfall" about 10,000 kamikaze planes (mostly converted trainers and old recons) were held ready, with 10,000 more to be mustered on the basis of needs. It mean likely the full annihilation of US Navy radar picket destroyers and several capital ships sunk in the day of invasion to Kyushu.
2) Japanese average troops (50% combat rating) defending the hard terrain in full reach of naval bombardment (Palau, Iwo-jima, Okinawa) were capable inflict 1.3 casualties per Japanese soldier killed, with 1/4 if US casualties being KIA. The fighting quality of newly assembled militia divisions was expected to be about 30%, giving 4 KIA Japanese for each KIA American.
3) The unrestricted submarine warfare with huge Japanese operational advantage. Japanese have reserved ALL of Kairyu-class short-range submarines (over 200 vessels) for this stage of war. Expectation was sinking of ~500 US vessels with the loss of 100,000-300,000 American lives before the submarine fleet is destroyed.
4) The maximal amount of troops the US were able to commit due supply constraints so far away was about 6 millions. After additional 1.5 millions US soldiers KIA and ~4 millions WIA (making 5 times the total OTL US WWII loss) and military stalemate in Honshu the sort of peace treaty on better terms was expected to become possible.

Of course, it was the worst possible outcome Japanese were preparing for. The implementation of plan turned out to be unnecessary as the Emperor Hirohito, in light of poor performance of Japanese armies in Manchuria, decided the lowest risk decision would be to accept surrender.
 
I'm afraid the above scenario won't flt. Yes there would be terrible US/Allied casualties, however what you describe does not take in to account the problems the Japanese would have with stuff like...food. Once troops are ashore, to the extent that these sorts of thing s happen, they can use their ability to shift axis to make life difficult for the Japanese. Furthermore if need be the US will stand back and use artillery, air support (including generous amounts of napalm. If the Japanese use even one ounce of gas, or even not, the USA will use what it has (mustard, phosgene, lewisite, and the Japanese troops have basically zero protection.
 

trurle

Banned
I'm afraid the above scenario won't flt. Yes there would be terrible US/Allied casualties, however what you describe does not take in to account the problems the Japanese would have with stuff like...food. Once troops are ashore, to the extent that these sorts of thing s happen, they can use their ability to shift axis to make life difficult for the Japanese. Furthermore if need be the US will stand back and use artillery, air support (including generous amounts of napalm. If the Japanese use even one ounce of gas, or even not, the USA will use what it has (mustard, phosgene, lewisite, and the Japanese troops have basically zero protection.

Food situation in Japan was tense in 1945. But the problem should not be exaggerated. Diaries of the period mention lack of vegetables, but not the outright hunger. I remember reading complains about "eating only rice and carrots". Basically, it makes some sense - both cultures are fast-growing and package provide the essential amino-acids plus vitamins besides calories. Japanese traditional "hunger year" food package actually consist of onions, carrots and rice. I do not know what happened with onions though..normally its production was assigned mostly to Awaji island, may be Allies have managed to sink some onion-laden ferries in Seto inland sea?:oops: Or some other problems happened?

As about chemical weapons, Japanese understood the vulnerability of the deeply-dug defensive positions to poison gas. Official position was not to use gas in any circumstances and ignore would-be minor gas attacks by US forces. In case if US would use poison gas unilaterally and in wide scale, Japanese leaders hoped for the popular pressure against atrocities.
 
The US public would not give a rats ass about "atrocities" against the Japanese, especially in the scenario where US casualties are increased by NOT using gas. Any politician who made that choice would be crucified. Frankly, given the known atrocities committed by the Japanese against US forces, POWs, etc let alone what they did in China and to other Europeans (Dutch, British, ANZAC) by 1945 the US public was perfectly happy with things like burning Japanese cities and all in them to the ground. If the US has to invade Japan with the casualties that would cause, the US public might, maybe, get upset if they saw pictures of US forces spit roasting Japanese children for BBQ. Short of that, killing 1,000 or 10,000 Japanese civilians who got in the way to save one American was just fine. As to Japanese military, including "militia" (women and children included) they were fair game, period.

To avoid losing weight a soldier who is relatively sedentary will need 2500 calories a day. Depending on the temperature and activity level, this can go up to 5000 calories a day. And its not just calories - protein is a key element and carrots an rice don't provide much of that. There are approximately 25 calories in a medium calorie and 200 in a cup of cooked rice. Do the math for 2500 calories on carrots and rice you need a lot of them, and they provide almost no protein (none in a carrot, 9% of calories in rice protein) and no fats, which you need. Even starving the civilians, you have issues with enough and getting to the troops - and if you starve farmers they don't grow much, factory workers produce less, and so forth. The USA had anti-crop weapons, and if Japan is going to be invaded you'd better believe they would be used.
 

trurle

Banned
The US public would not give a rats ass about "atrocities" against the Japanese, especially in the scenario where US casualties are increased by NOT using gas. Any politician who made that choice would be crucified. Frankly, given the known atrocities committed by the Japanese against US forces, POWs, etc let alone what they did in China and to other Europeans (Dutch, British, ANZAC) by 1945 the US public was perfectly happy with things like burning Japanese cities and all in them to the ground. If the US has to invade Japan with the casualties that would cause, the US public might, maybe, get upset if they saw pictures of US forces spit roasting Japanese children for BBQ. Short of that, killing 1,000 or 10,000 Japanese civilians who got in the way to save one American was just fine. As to Japanese military, including "militia" (women and children included) they were fair game, period.

To avoid losing weight a soldier who is relatively sedentary will need 2500 calories a day. Depending on the temperature and activity level, this can go up to 5000 calories a day. And its not just calories - protein is a key element and carrots an rice don't provide much of that. There are approximately 25 calories in a medium calorie and 200 in a cup of cooked rice. Do the math for 2500 calories on carrots and rice you need a lot of them, and they provide almost no protein (none in a carrot, 9% of calories in rice protein) and no fats, which you need. Even starving the civilians, you have issues with enough and getting to the troops - and if you starve farmers they don't grow much, factory workers produce less, and so forth. The USA had anti-crop weapons, and if Japan is going to be invaded you'd better believe they would be used.
You are obviously right about the US army of period being atrocious. Just remember the atrocities and war technology did not helped in Vietnam (where officers were all educated by Japanese and later by Soviets). Also, please do not manipulate caloric date. You make several mis-estimations and outright untrue statements.
Most erroneous points I must fix:
1) Food fat is not essential for survival. Body can build necessary fat from carbohydrates.
2) Caloric contents in standard Japanese peace-time ration is 1750 cal/day, not 2500 cal/day. Take into account infrequent action, small height and muscular dystrophy (weight loss) which also helps to save calories intake rate. Actually, when I (weightin 80kg as I think more typical for US soldier) was tried to eat a standard Japanese servings, I was losing weight while every Japanese around was stable.
3) Human protein requirements are 0.75g/kg/day. For average 55kg Japanese, this mean 41 g/day. The standard Japanese rice ration is 480 g/day, bringing roughly 100% calories and 75% of protein. The rest of protein and vitamins can be taken from carrots and onions, as was proven by centuries-long practice. Carrots can be replaced by sweet potatoes in Kyushu region. Also, emergency food include soy paste (nominally 3x18 kcal-servings per day) and bamboo shoots in small amount, to balance essential amino-acids.
 
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I'm afraid you missed my point - I did not say the US Army of the period was atrocious. I in no way suggested that "atrocities" are necessarily the way to fight, and lets not get started with the US/ARVN did atrocious things but the NVA/DRVN did not - they did so as well (and more and as a result of policy not rogues like My Lai), so lets not go there. My comment was that if the Japanese High Command thought that there would be public outcry against the 'atrocity" of the USA using gas, and civilians getting caught up they were sadly mistaken. Considering the Japanese had exactly zero concern for civilian deaths (whether foreign or Japanese) that would be quite a stretch. Without even getting in to Nanking, look at the actions of the defenders of Manila and civilian deaths in manila especially in the intramuros. The USA was quite willing to burn Japanese cities without concern for the population, and the whole rationale for the atomic bomb was to spare American (and Allied) lives. If using gas was needed to do that...

Assuming that every Japanese soldiers actually gets his 1750 calories a day, and that is a big if, marching, doing any physical work like digging a trench, or fighting will throw him in to calorie deficit right away. Sure the body will burn fat, including fat around internal organs, and use muscle protein for fuel. This sort of auto-cannibalism will keep one alive by diverting stored nutrients from less important areas to key ones, but the ability to perform work decreases rather rapidly. BTW fats are necessary not just for caloric value but for other reasons, using what is stored only works a certain amount.

The transportation system in japan has been trashed, so to a large extent every unit is on its own as regards food, ammunition, spare parts etc. By late fall 1945, when Olympic was supposed to happen, Japanese production won't be zero but it will be close - populations disclocated, no raw materials, no significant transport etc. The coolie carrying supplies on their back or on a bicycle can work to move supplies as Korea and Vietnam proved, however in both cases it worked because there were supplies at the start point, in the case of Korea safe from attack. In an Olympic/Coronet scenario there will be neither production nor significant supply dumps to draw from. Allied command of the air will be absolute...
 
Longer than some may believe.

Stalin wanted, primarily, Manchuria, with Hokkaido very much a secondary consideration. The Japanese were ready to go at Olympic hammer and tongs. Figure four, maybe five months to secure the southern third of Kyushu. By then the Red Army would have reached Pusan. Hokkaido would be a bloodbath for both sides, the Soviet strategic concept on ocean crossing amphibious landing was, to be kind, immature.

Operation Coronet would have been a bloodbath unlike anything ever seen, including the Eastern Front, at least as a percentage of the population, although the overwhelming casualties would be Japanese militia and civilians. Sometime in late 1946 whatever is left of the Japan's population effective just falls over and doesn't answer the bell.
Which would be bloodier Olympic or Coronet?
 
To quote General Anami (him joining the Kyujo plot was the POD of Decisive Darkness): "The Japanese people must continue their fight, even if we have to eat grass, sleep in the fields, and wallow in the dirt!" That means to me that the extremist elements of Japanese society and military (which would probably be leading the Japanese) would probably not care whether their soldiers are starving.
 
The Japanese had a very well designed defensive plan, with some "innovations" that would have caused massive losses. In another thread on the subject of the invasion I discussed the underwater swimmer plans, including the underwater "bunkers" for sheltering the swimmers until the time to deploy, something that the U.S. never even suspected to exist until after the surrender.
What other "innovations" did they have in their beach plan?
The unrestricted submarine warfare with huge Japanese operational advantage. Japanese have reserved ALL of Kairyu-class short-range submarines (over 200 vessels) for this stage of war. Expectation was sinking of ~500 US vessels with the loss of 100,000-300,000 American lives before the submarine fleet is destroyed.
100,000-300,000?

Did US troop ships really have that many men on them to add up to a number that large?
 
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From what I understand almost all food was reserved for the Army, the Japanese civilian population was starving. So there's nothing more to take. As a result ammo will be less an issue than food. Gas was another item in short supply, but Kamikaze's are flying one-way missions so that stretches the supply.

If the invasion can't take place due to weather or other issues then the bombing/mining continues through the winter of 45/46. Much of the civilian population won't be around by the time the invasion does take place. And the food situation may well have reached the critical point by then...
 
Two things the 75mm recoilless rifle highly mobile with a greater range than a Japanese heavy machine gun,and 'NAPALM!".Combined with Japan's shortage of artillery and automatic weapons any encounter with invading troops is a forgone conclusion.
 
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