How Would The Develop The Atomic Bomb Without World War II ?

I was reading about hoe World War II helped to speed up the creation of the first atomic bombs, so I was wondering....

Let's say all remains calm in Europe (or at least as calm as it can be) Hitler is content to rule over all of Germany, and dosen't prevoke a war. Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union are on "friendly" terms with each other. Both Britian and France are peaceful.

In the pacific, it is becoming obvious that at some point the USA will have to go to war with Japan. FDR runs for and is releccted to a third-term. War between America and Japan eventually comes in December 1941.

Now, lets say a senario like this takes place. How will this affect the devlopment of Nuclear weapons, and who,where and when are they developed?


Since their is no war in Europe, which is what lead to the allies coming together to develop the A-Bomb, nuclear weapons will certainly be delayed by a few years, possibly a decade. Assuming America wins it's war with Japan, I can see an Atomic Race developing between America and the Soviet Union, possibly Nazi Germany.


But what do you think?
 
I was reading about hoe World War II helped to speed up the creation of the first atomic bombs, so I was wondering....

Let's say all remains calm in Europe (or at least as calm as it can be) Hitler is content to rule over all of Germany, and dosen't prevoke a war. Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union are on "friendly" terms with each other. Both Britian and France are peaceful.

In the pacific, it is becoming obvious that at some point the USA will have to go to war with Japan. FDR runs for and is releccted to a third-term. War between America and Japan eventually comes in December 1941.

Now, lets say a senario like this takes place. How will this affect the devlopment of Nuclear weapons, and who,where and when are they developed?


Since their is no war in Europe, which is what lead to the allies coming together to develop the A-Bomb, nuclear weapons will certainly be delayed by a few years, possibly a decade. Assuming America wins it's war with Japan, I can see an Atomic Race developing between America and the Soviet Union, possibly Nazi Germany.


But what do you think?

1. Wait, so Hitler comes into power after making all of those promises and does nothing?

He's fucked.

2. Why would Japan attack Pearl Harbor? After all, with the European powers not at war against Germany, wouldn't an attack on Hawaii threaten European interests in the region?

3. How was FDR reelected again without a war?

4. There will be no atomic race between the Soviet Union and anyone. The USSR relied heavily on secrets stolen from the US to build their bomb.

When it comes to Germany, I often hear 1949-1952 as a date of them getting a bomb while the US, without a European War, would probably aim for 1944-1947.

Actually, I don't see it being delayed at all for the US. In the end, Japan will either be blockaded to starvation before the bombs are ready to go but I don't see the bomb being delayed a full decade, or even five years.
 

Cook

Banned
I don’t think the British would share “Tube alloys”, their nuclear development program with the United States without WW2. Maybe you'd have rival US and British Empire development programs.

Are you still going to have the key German, Austrian and Italian Scientists flee Europe for Britain and the United States?

Plus a lot of the scientists got involved only to stop Fascism taking over the world. Take away German expansion and you take away their motivation to get involved. The scientists’ protests at the continuation of the Manhattan Project after the Surrender of Nazi Germany in OTL give you a fair idea of the feelings of many of those involved.

If you are dealing with a protracted Cold War you might provoke a race to develop the Atom Bomb, but it’d take a lot longer with the smaller budget allocation and less resources. What was achieved in a little over three years may stretch out to fifteen or twenty. Maybe an Atom Bomb by 1955 or 1960?

Also, without a European war to weaken the Colonial Powers the Japanese would be very unlikely to try ceasing control of the oil fields of the Dutch East Indies. They’d still resent US sanctions but maybe it’s be a slow boil rather then an explosion.

Without WW2 it wouldn’t just be the Atom bomb development that would be slowed.
Jet aircraft are likely to be delayed.
Civil aviation and air traffic control would take a lot longer to develop.
Rockets and a long list of other technologies too.

Sounds like a good Scenario.
 
Rockets and a long list of other technologies too.

Sounds like a good Scenario.

No. German rockets are still good to go thanks to a loophole in an the Treaty. Hitler, despite not provoking war, is still insane. He got into power on the grounds that eventually, Germany will go out and conquer somebody. No war and I'm sure Hitler is going to be ousted sooner or later.
 
4. There will be no atomic race between the Soviet Union and anyone. The USSR relied heavily on secrets stolen from the US to build their bomb.

The main "secrets" the Soviet Union relied on was the confirmation that it WAS ACTUALLY POSSIBLE, not any scientific data. The information Rosenbergs passed to Soviet Union allowed a shortcut in development, shaving off possibly between half a year and a year from the Soviet plans. The meme "the Soviets stole the atomic bomb from USA" is to 99% nothing but the usual Cold War propaganda.
 
I don't believe it would have been developed on nearly the same time scale that it was for WWII. First, the U.S. would not have the support of the German scientists or other European physicists, like Niels Bohr, with Hitler making some sort of aggressive move. The fact is, the reason many of them fled in the first place was because the Jews were afraid of persecution by Hitler, but if he does that in his own country but it doesn't start WWII, I guess that could be possible.

The only reason they kept the fast paced time line they did was because of the looming trouble in Europe. If the United States had no reason to prepare for all out war, then they wouldn't have put the time and money into the Manhattan project in the same way. I assume that after the war with Japan started, or if they were afraid Japan would develop the bomb, it would be a lot speedier, if they weren't at war with Germany.

Now, the German bomb project, if I recall, was much farther behind the American one than the Americans ever realized. Now, if Hitler kept his scientists, then maybe, just maybe they might have a chance at creating a bomb, since many scientists, as I mentioned above fled and many others were more entrenched in more pressing wartime matters then creating an atomic bomb. The German scientists also did not have the same trust and devotion to the project as the Manhattan Project, not only that, but the United States had the resources where as Germany did not. I'm not sure what the economy of your Nazi Germany would be like, but to fund a successful bomb project, it would need to be a lot stronger.

But, as soon as America learned of the bomb project in Germany, I'm sure they might start their own much later. The fact is, as soon as the implications associated with nuclear fission were properly examined and discovered SOMEBODY would decide to use it to create a bomb. Without the pressing necessity, though, the bomb would certainly be delayed for a time period sufficient to your time line. I must add, also, that the differences between the physicist in Europe and America were very great indeed. The European world of physics, was well advanced, and with the resources, a team of German physicists could essentially create the bomb before America.

I hope that helps a little bit. If you have any specific questions, I'm sure I could help answer them.
 
The main "secrets" the Soviet Union relied on was the confirmation that it WAS ACTUALLY POSSIBLE, not any scientific data. The information Rosenbergs passed to Soviet Union allowed a shortcut in development, shaving off possibly between half a year and a year from the Soviet plans. The meme "the Soviets stole the atomic bomb from USA" is to 99% nothing but the usual Cold War propaganda.

The blueprints themselves probably only shaved a half year or so off the development (mostly because critical mass had already been developed), but Soviet espionage also revealed some important developmental issues like the American use of gas diffusion to enrich uranium (which the Soviets would never have thought of, considering how surprised they were when they learned of it), and the idea of using plutonium instead of uranium (which they probably would have thought of, but having the Manhattan Project do all the leg work was handy).

All in all, I would call it 2+ years of development shaved off. They also knew not to try a gun type device, though I don't know how helpful that was (were they even considering one?)
 
Top