How would Russian continental hegemony in Europe look like?

[GreatFrenchEmpire]

In Europe, there are realistically only 4 major players capable of any kind of hegemony: Britain, France, Germany, and Russia.

Now, I was thinking about how would the "perfect" Europe look like from Russian POV.

Main things I've considered:

• Balkanized Britain: Ireland, Scotland, Wales - prevent Britain from rising again
• Balkanized France: Occitan, Brittany - prevent France from rising again
• Balkanized Spain: Catalonia, Basque - just to check Spanish ambitions
• Balkanized Italy: Naples - mainly because Italy showed itself 2nd only to Germany in terms of economic strength/trends in EU so Italy despite its bad reputation militarily economically is just too competitive, even more dangerous than France.
• Balkanized Germany: Prussia, Austria - here I am not sure, looking to see if Russia would want strong Germany or weak Germany.

Overall, I'm looking to see what would be the main "pieces" that Russia would need to balkanize/control/annex to be in a stable hegemonic position. Starting from annexing Norway and Sweden for the Danish straits access and controlling Constantinople for Mediterranean access.

Maybe annexing the entirety of land around the Persian gulf for a chokehold on global oil?

P.S. Here's a picture of how I assume trading would work in Europe in this scenario, basically Japanese Co-Prosperity Sphere but European version:

 

[GreatFrenchEmpire]

This is IMO are the perfect borders for France, not too big, not too small.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

What type of Russia? Tsarist? Soviet? Fascist? Democratic? Personalistic Authoritarian? Something else? That is going to matter a bit. I’d hazard that while a Soviet or Democratic Russia might take some border territories (especially a Soviet one), she’d be less inclined to completely annex or balkanize states then a Tsarist or Fascist one and content more with installing friendly regimes.

 

[GreatFrenchEmpire]

What type of Russia? Tsarist? Soviet? Fascist? Democratic? Personality Authoritarian? Something else? That is going to matter a bit. I’d hazard that while a Soviet or Democratic Russia might take some border territory (especially a Soviet one), she’d be less inclined to completely annex or balkanize states then a Tsarist or Fascist one and content more with installing friendly regimes.

I would assume Russia would be similar to Japan: strong Authoritarian aspect combined with a weak parliament. So some kind of authoritarian welfare state.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

• Balkanized Italy: Naples - mainly because Italy showed itself 2nd only to Germany in terms of economic strength/trends in EU so Italy despite its bad reputation militarily economically is just too competitive, even more dangerous than France.

I don't understand this part, France has a larger economy than Italy and is much more influential even if you only look in the EU; and that is after Italy had an economic miracle post-WW2, here this doesn't happen and the Italian economy would be (relatively) weak.

Overall, I'm looking to see what would be the main "pieces" that Russia would need to balkanize/control/annex to be in a stable hegemonic position. Starting from annexing Norway and Sweden for the Danish straits access and controlling Constantinople for Mediterranean access.

IMHO the best (realistic) scenario for Russia is having something like a post-WW1 with them at the peace conference, France is friendly and will not threaten Russian interests, Austria-Hungary has been dissolved and Germany is kept in check by Russia and France. Italy and Britain have conflicts with Russia, but the first is not too threatening for overall Russian interests as it can be kept in check and the second is not really capable of fighting a war on the continent without allies, right now the only allies they might have are not capable of standing against the Franco-Russians. I struggle to find a realistic way to have a much more positive situation than this.

 

[Histor32]

What type of Russia? Tsarist? Soviet? Fascist? Democratic? Personalistic Authoritarian? Something else? That is going to matter a bit. I’d hazard that while a Soviet or Democratic Russia might take some border territories (especially a Soviet one), she’d be less inclined to completely annex or balkanize states then a Tsarist or Fascist one and content more with installing friendly regimes.

I would assume post 1900... So that excludes tsarist Russia as tsarist Russia was on its way out.

Soviet Russia ... Eh maybe but there would need to be a lot of changes ...

Post Soviet Russia, no

Also if a nation wanted to balkanize and keep western Europe down ( or Europe beyond that which was eastern block ( and that's the closest Russia got) it's going to be tough since most Western nations have very long histories and concepts of nation. Soviets wouldn't bring back Prussia...

Best pod ... 1812-1815.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Some kind of Pan-Slavic or Pan-Eastern Orthodox state as its base, perhaps?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

I would assume post 1900... So that excludes tsarist Russia as tsarist Russia was on its way out.

Its collapse was NOT guaranteed.

 

[Histor32]

Its collapse was NOT guaranteed.

Agreed, but European domination of the continent post 1900 but pre Sept 1945... Nope, nein, non, nyet

Russia can not take on all of Europe and win, even a few chunks at a time.

Post WW1 Russia is a mess, sure Europe is a mess, but Russia is a mess. 1930's. The soviets are not on par with the French and if the Russians started massing, people would be rearming the Germans faster than Hitler could.

Maybe the Russians knock the fins out ... Then they take a shot at Sweden and or Norway, the British and French get involved.

As for collapse .. agreed it wasn't, but how do you suppose to get super Russia between 1900 and 1916 that doesn't butterfly away alliances, military postures etc...

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

As for collapse .. agreed it wasn't, but how do you suppose to get super Russia between 1900 and 1916 that doesn't butterfly away alliances, military postures etc...

It's in post-1900 thread, but I have the impression that the POD is before that, and that it is in post-1900 because at that point the hegemony is achieved. Otherwise it wouldn't make sense to suggest a Balkanized Germany or France, especially not the latter with the map in post #2.

 

[Gabingston]

This is IMO are the perfect borders for France, not too big, not too small.

Why is Normandy part of the UK?

 

[Sam R.]

Some kind of pact formed in Warsaw?

 

[Sasza]

The Russians will not be able to subjugate Europe. The potential of Italy + France is greater than that of Russia.

 

[Pericles]

A delayed WWI would likely have been highly advantageous for Russia. Russia's economy and military capacity was rapidly catching up with other powers. The revolution that eventually comes is also likelier to lead to a democratic Russia, or even a military dictatorship, rather than communism. I'm not sure how this leads to total hegemony though, but there are lots of different variations on WWI that can be played with.

 

[Krasno]

The Russians will not be able to subjugate Europe. The potential of Italy + France is greater than that of Russia.

explain? and how do you qualify "potential"? Russia had the resources. industry, and population to be a superpower in the 20th century, and that was was with an all things considered inefficient and overly-bureacratized government.. how do you imagine that France and italy have "more potential"?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

The Russians will not be able to subjugate Europe. The potential of Italy + France is greater than that of Russia.

In 1950 France had a GDP of 220,492,000,000 in 1990 International Dollars and Italy had 164,957,000,000; the USSR in the meantime had a GDP of 510,243,000,000; that is in an incredibly incompetent system which wasted almost all the potential Russia had. Where do you see more potential for France and Italy than for Russia?

List of regions by past GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Edward Brock Jr.]

WarPac victory in conventional war:
Denmark, Northwestern Germany, Bavaria and the Straits join pro-Soviet bloc, but France (maybe Rhineland+Benelux too) and Greece finlandized.