How would Muslims vote in the US without 9/11

Had 9/11 somehow not occurred, with no other Islamic terrorist events, would Muslim voters stay a solid GOP block, or would they eventually be driven to the Democratic party even without wars in the middle east? In OTL, almost 80% of Muslims in America supported Bush. In an era without the Republican animosity towards Muslims, could this support have stayed strong? Could the first Muslims elected to Congress be Republicans, not Democrats?
 
Had 9/11 somehow not occurred, with no other Islamic terrorist events, would Muslim voters stay a solid GOP block, or would they eventually be driven to the Democratic party even without wars in the middle east? In OTL, almost 80% of Muslims in America supported Bush. In an era without the Republican animosity towards Muslims, could this support have stayed strong? Could the first Muslims elected to Congress be Republicans, not Democrats?

Probably. Muslims from the Middle East and North Africa are classified as "White", so other than their different religion, they are like everyone else.
 
9/11 did a lot to increase xenophobia in general.

The GOP would likely be better off with Hispanics and Asians as well.
 
OTL, Bush appealed to the Muslim vote. Grover Norquist even credited the Muslim vote for Bush's Florida "victory".

Yes. I remember back in 2000 that the GOP worked hard to get the Arab-American vote on its side, especially in places like Michigan with a significant Arab-American community (Spencer Abraham, remember?) Absent 9/11, I agree that outreach to Arab-Americans specifically and Muslim-Americans in general would have continued to be a key part of Republican political strategy. This could have interesting consequences for the Bush Administration's approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
 
Yes. I remember back in 2000 that the GOP worked hard to get the Arab-American vote on its side, especially in places like Michigan with a significant Arab-American community (Spencer Abraham, remember?) Absent 9/11, I agree that outreach to Arab-Americans specifically and Muslim-Americans in general would have continued to be a key part of Republican political strategy. This could have interesting consequences for the Bush Administration's approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Before 9/11 no one really cared that much about Muslims right? I was only six at the time so I have no idea what people thought of muslims other than that one was my god mother.
 
Yes. I remember back in 2000 that the GOP worked hard to get the Arab-American vote on its side, especially in places like Michigan with a significant Arab-American community (Spencer Abraham, remember?) Absent 9/11, I agree that outreach to Arab-Americans specifically and Muslim-Americans in general would have continued to be a key part of Republican political strategy. This could have interesting consequences for the Bush Administration's approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

But werent many of those ArabAmericans Christian?
 
This has gotten me thinking: If, in this scenario, the majority of Muslims in the US support the GOP, and the majority of Jews support the Democrats, could we see the GOP to begin to become cooler towards Israel, with the Democrats being the more ridiculously pro-Israel like the GOP of OTL?
 
This has gotten me thinking: If, in this scenario, the majority of Muslims in the US support the GOP, and the majority of Jews support the Democrats, could we see the GOP to begin to become cooler towards Israel, with the Democrats being the more ridiculously pro-Israel like the GOP of OTL?

I don't think that many Liberal Jew's are very pro-Israeli, but that might be my ignorance on Jew-Israeli relations. I also think GOP Muslim's might carve out a niche and we could things be described as "Abrahamic" rather than "Judeo-Christian" as per OTL (I think I read it was like that for a bit before 9-11, but my memory is sketchy if that was true.)
 
This has gotten me thinking: If, in this scenario, the majority of Muslims in the US support the GOP, and the majority of Jews support the Democrats, could we see the GOP to begin to become cooler towards Israel, with the Democrats being the more ridiculously pro-Israel like the GOP of OTL?

I'm British so there's going to be people here a lot more knowledgeable about this than me, but I always thought that the primary reason for the GOP's strong pro-Israel stance was not really to do with Jewish support for the Republicans - it was much more linked to the fact that it is Evangelical Christians who make up the Republican base, and the perception among them is that, as it says in Romans 11:2, "God has not rejected His people, whom He chose from the beginning". From their perspective, the US must always stand by Israel and its population who are God's chosen people, as Biblical prophecy must be fulfilled before the Second Coming can take place.
 
This has gotten me thinking: If, in this scenario, the majority of Muslims in the US support the GOP, and the majority of Jews support the Democrats, could we see the GOP to begin to become cooler towards Israel, with the Democrats being the more ridiculously pro-Israel like the GOP of OTL?

Maybe this could lead to paleoconservatives like Pat Buchanan becoming more powerful within the GOP, currying favor with Muslim voters while opposing close ties with Israel. IOTL, they saw a brief surge in the '90s with the end of the Cold War, Middle American opposition to NAFTA, and the candidacies of Ross Perot, but got sidelined after 9/11. Without 9/11, the "Islam vs. the West" meme won't be as pronounced, meaning that they are more likely to take a neutral or positive view of the Islamic world, seeing Islamists as allies against globalization and multiculturalism.

Hmm... a world in which it's the Democrats who are the party of free trade and deregulation as part of a liberal social policy (a platform of "free people and free markets" if you will), and the Republicans who are espousing protectionism and economic nationalism as part of a reactionary social policy.
 
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Maybe this could lead to paleoconservatives like Pat Buchanan becoming more powerful within the GOP, currying favor with Muslim voters while opposing close ties with Israel. IOTL, they saw a brief surge in the '90s with the end of the Cold War, Middle American opposition to NAFTA, and the candidacies of Ross Perot, but got sidelined after 9/11. Without 9/11, the "Islam vs. the West" meme won't be as pronounced, meaning that they are more likely to take a neutral or positive view of the Islamic world, seeing Islamists as allies against globalization and multiculturalism.

Hmm... a world in which it's the Democrats who are the party of free trade and deregulation, and the Republicans who are espousing protectionism and economic nationalism as part of a reactionary social policy.

I see lots of Libertarians flocking to the Democrats.
 
Most likely is that Bush is a one-term President, the Tea Party forms earlier, and Muslim Americans are driven out of the GOP's White Christian Tent.
 
Most likely is that Bush is a one-term President

If 9-11 didn't happen, Karl Rove will try to gain the Muslim vote for Bush in 2004, just like he did in 2000, which means that Bush wins with an even greater margin than OTL.

the Tea Party forms earlier.

Won't happen until a Democrat gets in office, and would not happen in 2004 as pointed out up there.

Muslim Americans are driven out of the GOP's White Christian Tent.

Actually, the GOP's White Christian Tent will be more accommodating to the Muslims, seeing as another way to get more votes to win. Besides, many of the Christians in the GOP are moderates, and many of the GOP Muslims are moderates, and they are going to have good relationships with each other. Many of their stances on social issues (guns, abortion, gay marriage, etc...) are actually the same.
 
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