How Would Japan win WWII

Regarding the Japan wins WW-II and the Germany wins WW-II threads, neither one can pull if off by themselves, not in a world where you have the historical sides. It is Axis victory or Axis defeat as a whole. Personally I feel that Axis defeat was in the cards once Italy surrendered and the western Allies were on the European mainland.

Germany, Italy, and Japan needed to work together. One of the greatest weapons available to the Allies was their coordination.

Hmm, now if at some point early on, Chiang and the IJA reach an agreement concerning the Communists; both considered Communisim a greater foe than each other. The KMT is free to throw its strength against Mao, while the IJA can throw its strength against the USSR. It may not produce a Japanese victory, but it could lessen the degree of Japanese defeat.
 
(1) Declare war on Germany, 1939

(2) Back down in face of US ultimatum in 1941 and seek truce with Nationalist China - wait for better time to enter war with attack on USSR during Barbarossa. Best time would be as Germans approach Moscow during initial push. If this pushes Stalin over the edge, then great, NE Asia is your oyster. If not, adopt defensive posture and then offer separate peace with USSR in exchange for Soviet recognition of Japanese sphere in interest in NE asia (Stalin might well go for this). Co-opt, but to not invade Vichy Indonesia, Dutch Indies. Don't even look cross-eyed at the Phillipines, Hawaii, Singapore, Malaya, India, etc. When US and UK are fully engaged in invasion of western Europe, strike a deal with Chaing to go after the Reds - in exchange for further concessions in China. As a result, Japan might come out of 1945 with its continental empire intact, although embroiled in Chinese civil war. A number of possibilities depending on fate of Stalin and USSR.

(3) No way Japan could win a WW2 in which they attack the US and UK in Asia, but their best option for delaying ultimate fate would be to attack only the UK and hope US entry is delayed and/or reduced in scope and intensity. As fast as possible, Take Malaya, Singapore, Burma and Ceylon, and force UK to defend India and supply lines thru Red Sea and Around horn in force. Hey, while you've got those aircraft carriers, try to take or coerce some bases in Madagascar as well. If US enters, blockade Phillipines and attempt to harrass eliminate US naval assets moving to forward bases.
Eventually, the US would enter WW2, due to Hitler's obsessive need to interfere with US internal affaairs. (Where did all that money come from for the German-American Bund?)
 
Someone wrote a book about how Japan was trying to build an A-bomb?

The operative word here is "trying" - they had competent physicists (but not in the same league or as many as the US/GB had), they had some idea what was needed (as much as everyone else did in the early to mid-Thirties).

What they were missing - and frankly everyone was missing this (except the USA) - was the money to do a crash program to develop and weponize the concepts that were floating around in the Physics community in that time period.

The US started from a higher point - they based off of the British program which had made more progress than anyone else to date.

They had the world class physicists working on the problem - you know the ones that developed the theory the A-Bomb was based on.

They threw the 2009 equivalent of several trillion (1x10^12) dollars at the problem.

And they had a safe (non-bombed) place to work (North America).

No other country could do that in the 1940s.
 
I think the best POD is in 1940. The Japanese occupied French Indo China in September 1940. Move this up to July right after Vichy is declared. The US is embroiled in an election campaign and if FDR even hints at war he loses the election. Britain is real worried about a Sealion so they have no resources to send to the Pacific. The Malaya garrison is about one division at the time and less than 100 aircraft. I think the Japanese have a cake walk especially since they can use their carriers to help in the Malay and Dutch East Indies campaigns.

The Australians are going to demand that the 6th, 7th, 9th Aus divisions are returned to defend Australia. New Zealand similarly will want the 2NZ division back. The Germans and Italians likely win in Egypt as a result and Crete is easy without the NZ troops there.

Going back to the Japanese, they can easily take the Hong Kong, Malay and DEI areas.

The question is will they then be able to pressure the British to make peace. Clearly the US will be faced with domestic pressure to not get involved since the 1940 election cycle is happening. If FDR makes political promises to not get involved to get re-elected, the Japanese can safely ignore the US. The real question is could defeats in the Far East and Egypt force Britain to make peace at least with the Japanese. If so, the Japanese could sit back and exploit the captured Dutch and British possessions.
 
Clearly the US will be faced with domestic pressure to not get involved since the 1940 election cycle is happening. If FDR makes political promises to not get involved to get re-elected, the Japanese can safely ignore the US.

I seem to remember Wilson campaigning on 'He Kept Us Out of War' in 1916 and then the US was at war in 1917. Your idea is full of holes large enough to sink a ship.
 
I seem to remember Wilson campaigning on 'He Kept Us Out of War' in 1916 and then the US was at war in 1917. Your idea is full of holes large enough to sink a ship.

I don't think the two situations come close to comparing. The Germans in WWI needed to cut off Britain and close the Atlantic and used unrestricted sub warfare - They did not fear the US. The Japanese have no interest in fighting the US.

Even if war with the US does come later, the Japanese have the opportunity to swallow the Malay / DEI areas in the 2nd half of 1940 and then focus on the US locations later. Just the ability to take on the Brit/Dutch forces and then the US separately has to help Japan a lot. They can focus their limited shipping in each area and not have to do everything at the same time.
 
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