How would Japan react to a Central Powers victory?

As it says on the title:

How would Japan react to a Central Powers victory? Political repercussions, or economic drawbacks?

What about their territorial ambitions in East Asia? Would they go to lick their wounds with their tail between their legs, or would they have a fury and ambition harsher than that of OTL?
 
Improper wording, you're right. I meant the losses of Japanese soldiers and equipment that didn't matter in the end, seeing as the Germans would have taken them back anyway.

well,I am not sure about that. I don't think a germany that won with last strengt in europe and has to hold the continent down would really care about anything is east asia.
 
What if they won in late 1914 - early 1915 when they had their strength? What then?

then the chances go up,and I think japan may voluntary give the relativly small gains back to stay on better terms with the now stronger germany,but if they remained stubborn I doubt Germany would sail around the world to confront them.
 
The question depends entirely on how the Japanese would react to the unprecedented situation of being on the losing side, holding some of the enemy's territory and having a fully intact military. Japan, being nationalistic and fearful of showing weakness, did not intend to give up its gains easily though it did do so if pressed, as was the case earlier in China, when it caved to threats from a coalition of France, Germany and Russia and later in Russia, when it eventually withdrew from occupying Eastern Siberia and later, the northern half of Sakhalin as well.

Germany theoretically had the ability to put serious military pressure on Japan if Britain agreed not to intervene on its behalf even at the end of hostilities and would probably be able to dispatch a fleet capable of defeating the IJN fairly confidently if it wished to do so. It is very difficult to know how strongly the Germans would have pushed to recover their pacific territories after having fought a long war. Despite their naval superiority, such an operation might be seen a necessary risk and the Germans would be well within their rights to wage this war. I have my doubts that they would but then again, the Kaiser was big on his empire. If Germany gets back other lost territories, it will threaten the Japanese at first and later, when it has somewhat recovered and if its demands aren't met will probably actually follow up on them. If the peace deal results in a loss of colonies, particularly in Africa, Germany would probably just sell the islands to Japan and hope to get their Tsingtao base back.
 
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cpip

Gone Fishin'
Several prominent Japanese leaders, mostly of Yamagata's faction, believed that Germany was going to win the war -- being proved right would lead to a rise in their stock. They'd probably try and negotiate to retain some of them [Edit: some of the captured colonies]; it would be a difficult operation for the Germans to go forth against the Japanese, especially as it's unlikely they'll find much support from the British or French -- making coaling a tricky proposition, with a High Seas Fleet that generally wasn't designed to operate quite so far from friendly ports.

I suspect the Germans would negotiate some form of sale, and the Yamagata faction would try and use this as an attempt to suppress the Okuma and Kato led press for stronger civilian power over government in favor of Yamagata's more military-driven rule. It's quite possible that Japan would even be happy to cede some of the islands in exchange for holding others, if it meant somewhat friendly relations with Germany afterwards.
 

Deleted member 1487

Basically what Cpip said. Germany can't take back their colonies, so they will arrange a deal with Japan. Britain's stock really falls in Japan, so perhaps there might be a chance for and earlier German-Japanese understanding. Though I bet Germany would probably work with China too for the economic benefits, as Japan really had nothing to offer Germany in terms of raw materials or trade (same problem they had in WW2) other than a potential powerful ally in the region to counter Russia. The thing is with Russia defeated the benefit of being allied to Germany offers little other than potentially a threat to Britain. Likely Japan becomes a free agent, as Russia is maimed as a rival, same with Britain, while the US is a potential future rival, one that Germany doesn't want to fight or come into conflict with over Japan (the Imperial Germans were marginally less stupid there compared to Hitler apart from Ludendorff). Germany and Japan might come into conflict over China actually ITTL, as Germany would probably get OTL market penetration if not even more due to actually winning the war and still not having colonies in the region so being less threatening to China's leaders. China was just too valuable a trade partner for Germany's economy compared to anything Japan had to offer. Likely Japan doesn't get away with anything like what it did in the 1920s-30s in China due to German deals with China and economic interests. Because Germany will be stretching it's imperial legs in a victory scenario and very confident in their military power, they will likely be more willing to power project.
 
Several prominent Japanese leaders, mostly of Yamagata's faction, believed that Germany was going to win the war -- being proved right would lead to a rise in their stock. They'd probably try and negotiate to retain some of them [Edit: some of the captured colonies]; it would be a difficult operation for the Germans to go forth against the Japanese, especially as it's unlikely they'll find much support from the British or French -- making coaling a tricky proposition, with a High Seas Fleet that generally wasn't designed to operate quite so far from friendly ports.

I suspect the Germans would negotiate some form of sale, and the Yamagata faction would try and use this as an attempt to suppress the Okuma and Kato led press for stronger civilian power over government in favor of Yamagata's more military-driven rule. It's quite possible that Japan would even be happy to cede some of the islands in exchange for holding others, if it meant somewhat friendly relations with Germany afterwards.

Link to info on the Yamagata faction? Can't seem to find anything on them.
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
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