How would Italy look after a gothic victory over byzantium?
- Thread starter Gukpard
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Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
Do the Ostrogoths defeat the East. Romans during the initial invasion? Or does Totila live to make the second round of Byzantines invading Italy not worth the try? Because if it's the latter, not much is going to change. Italy is still devastated from the several decades of war and the Goths are susceptible to having their position usurped by the Lombards, Franks or even the Avars. If the former, the old Roman institutions (Senate, etc.) are more or less preserved under Gothic hands and Italy has its cultural and economic recovery much sooner than IOTL.
The former, let's say that the goths learn about the exact local of the invasion by a traitor and decisively defeats the roman expediction still in Sicily and kill Belissarius in the process.
HOWEVER this only stops the byzantine expansion into italy, they decide to focus on strengning their hold on africa after the fiasco.
I think it depends on in what circumstance the Ostrogoths manage to defeat and push the Byzantines out of the greater Italian region. If it happens after a long and expensive war it might leave the Goths week and susceptable to invasion from other forces like the Lombards or the Franks. But if the Ostrogoths manage to crush the Byzantines early with little losses on the Gothic side, then this might signal the beginning of a stronger Ostrogothic kingdom.
Well, I said on the earlier comment, it is a decisive and fast ostrogothic victory scenario.
I'm not quite sure how big the prospect of a surviving Ostrogothic Kindom of Italy is with a POD after the death of Theoderic. Theoderic had elevated Italy to become the strongest of the successor kingdoms and gotten quite close to restoring the Western Empire politically by almost forming a union with the Visigoths and allying with the Vandals. However towards the end of his reign all of his plans had started falling apart. With Amalasuntha dead I don't really see the Ostrogothic court remaining too stable. Theodahad was elderly and didn't prove to be a very capable leader.
Furthermore the relative religious tolerance under Theoderic's early reign was de facto gone by this point as such the Gothic position was pretty vulnerable even if the Romans are pushed out. They could potentially be victim to attacks from the Franks or Avars.
However if they manage to sort out these issues (Say the tolerance of Theoderic's early reign is restored/the Goths convert to Orthodoxy and they sort out the political problems) then Italy would for sure be much more developed and culturally Roman than it was for most of the Middle Ages in our timeline. Rome would not be besieged and depopulated twice, Mediolanum would not be razed to the ground, the remaining Senatorial Elite would not be killed, taken hostage or flee and the penninsula would retain a much more urban, wealthy and perhaps cosmopolitan character for a longer period of time. The Papacy would also be severely weakened as it would lack it's political independence.
The amount of butterflies this would create makes it very hard to imagine a long-term scenario. It's even quite plausible this could butterfly the Arab Conquests, which creates so many changes I can't even begin to imagine what the long term consequences would be.
Furthermore the relative religious tolerance under Theoderic's early reign was de facto gone by this point as such the Gothic position was pretty vulnerable even if the Romans are pushed out. They could potentially be victim to attacks from the Franks or Avars.
However if they manage to sort out these issues (Say the tolerance of Theoderic's early reign is restored/the Goths convert to Orthodoxy and they sort out the political problems) then Italy would for sure be much more developed and culturally Roman than it was for most of the Middle Ages in our timeline. Rome would not be besieged and depopulated twice, Mediolanum would not be razed to the ground, the remaining Senatorial Elite would not be killed, taken hostage or flee and the penninsula would retain a much more urban, wealthy and perhaps cosmopolitan character for a longer period of time. The Papacy would also be severely weakened as it would lack it's political independence.
The amount of butterflies this would create makes it very hard to imagine a long-term scenario. It's even quite plausible this could butterfly the Arab Conquests, which creates so many changes I can't even begin to imagine what the long term consequences would be.
TruthfulPanda
Gone Fishin'
Are the Lombards a thing in such a scenario?
They rose to prominence by destroying the Gepids in an alliance with the Avars.
As I understand it the Gepids were the same sort of kin to the Ostrogoths as the Visigoths were, the "third tribe" if you may.
Any possibility that the Ostrogoths would had propped up their kin in the Pannonian Basin?
They rose to prominence by destroying the Gepids in an alliance with the Avars.
As I understand it the Gepids were the same sort of kin to the Ostrogoths as the Visigoths were, the "third tribe" if you may.
Any possibility that the Ostrogoths would had propped up their kin in the Pannonian Basin?
Honestly I find the idea of Alamanni taking Italy interesting as well. They were experienced in fighting Romans and could have fought off the other tribes, at least. Germanic influence on Italy possibly butterflies away a lot of Italian history.
TruthfulPanda
Gone Fishin'
The Alemanni were tribal - although on the verge of statehood - and since 496 subjugated by the Franks.
You need them to beat off the Franks first.
To have the Alamanni ran around in Italy lots of PODs needed ... maybe Sygarius winning at Soissons?
You need them to beat off the Franks first.
To have the Alamanni ran around in Italy lots of PODs needed ... maybe Sygarius winning at Soissons?
Perhaps through Julian being defeated and killed at the Battle of Argentorate, in 356 AD?
The Alamanni were raiding Gaul a lot, and there were traces of them developing some state culture. However, their momentum was broken after Julian defeated them, and the Franks rose to prominence instead.
Is there any chance, say, they could ally with the Visigoths or something? Though the Visigoths probably would want Italy for themselves...
It all depends from how the Alamanni go around ruling, really - the Lombards held most of Italy for two centuries, and some parts for a century or two more; and while there was some undeniable effect, Italy passed through culturally mostly unchanged. The Lombards, though, held themselves separated from the general population until the very last decades of their general rule, so that's something to be considered.