How would Israel look with a much larger Eastern European aliyah?

CaliGuy

Banned
Here is the scenario: France doesn't fall in 1940. Afterwards, Hitler and the Nazis get overthrown by the Schwarze Kapelle (but not before they manage to begin killing the Jews under their rule). After a couple of years, Britain and France defeat Germany and destroy German military power once again.

Due to the crushing of Palestinian military power during the 1936-1939 Arab Revolt as well as due to sympathy for the Jews of Europe after this TL's mini-Holocaust (500 thousand to 1 million Jewish deaths in this TL; however, there is no our TL Holocaust to compare to in this TL), Palestine still gets partitioned and Israel still gets created in this TL.

Anyway, how would Israel look with a much larger Eastern European aliyah? After all, I presume that most of the much larger amount of Holocaust survivors (in comparison to our TL) in Eastern Europe would want to immigrate to Israel after the end of World War II in this TL. Plus, most of the much larger amount of Soviet Jewry in this TL would likewise want to emigrate in this TL.

Indeed, any thoughts on this?
 
So, no holocaust and "the big pogrom" in its stead.
How do you convince eastern jews to emigrate?
Is there still something like 1941 Lviv or an earlier 1946 Kielce?

Please clarify POD.
 
If you have a larger aliyah of European Jews, you'll get some from Western Europe as well to go to Israel, issues of housing and integration will be more difficult early on. Lots of people lived in tents for quite some time after immigrating in the early days. OTOH you will have more manpower for the military and developing the land. Finally you will have a situation early on where the Jewish population of Israel is substantially larger than the Arab population after independence and the Jewish/Arab ratio will remain heavily tilted in favor of the Jews even with the higher Arab birth rate.

Politically, the greater survival of European Jewry means that the pressure on the early government to pass the laws allowing ultra-Orthodox to avoid national service is not there, and the blanket "go to full time religious study and get an automatic exemption" that led to ALL ultra-Orthodox males ending up deferred unless they chose otherwise won't happen. The reason this happened OTL was that there was a desire to preserve the Jewish theological scholarship that had been decimated by the Holocaust. You might also see the minimum threshold for representation in the Knesset higher,which reduces the power of the splinter parties since almost every government post independence was a coalition government handing out "deals".

With a larger Aliyah, you may see a stronger role for Yiddish in Israel, perhaps recognition as a second language.

OTL many of the Jews of Eastern Europe went to Israel via DP camps. Here you'll have more who will be in countries that have communist governments in 1947-48. Will the USSR and other communist countries allow the Jews to emigrate, even at this point in time when the USSR et al were positive on the establishment of Israel (the idea being that an Israel created by the west would be a permanent irritant to the Arabs who would turn against the west and towards the USSR).
 

CaliGuy

Banned
So, no holocaust and "the big pogrom" in its stead.
How do you convince eastern jews to emigrate?
Is there still something like 1941 Lviv or an earlier 1946 Kielce?

Please clarify POD.
The fact that hundreds of thousands or even more Jews will be killed will be sufficient to get many Eastern European Jews to emigrate. After all, while this would certainly pale to our TL's Holocaust, this TL's Jews won't know that. Rather, what they will know is that the "Big Pogrom" ended up being hundreds of times more devastating than the pogroms of the Russian Empire were and that thus they should get out of Eastern Europe as soon as possible.

Also, in regards to Soviet Jews, the anti-Jewish discrimination in the Soviet Union after the end of World War II should motivate most of them to want to emigrate in this TL. Plus, there will be a much larger Soviet Jewish community in this TL due to the lack of a Holocaust in the Soviet Union (no Operation Barbarossa = the Holocaust doesn't spread to the Soviet Union) as well as due to population momentum from the youthful demographics of the Soviet Jewish population.

If you have a larger aliyah of European Jews, you'll get some from Western Europe as well to go to Israel,

Yes, you would, but probably not as much. After all, the situation for Jews in Western Europe appears to have been better than the situation for Jews in Eastern Europe in the early 20th century.

issues of housing and integration will be more difficult early on. Lots of people lived in tents for quite some time after immigrating in the early days. OTOH you will have more manpower for the military and developing the land. Finally you will have a situation early on where the Jewish population of Israel is substantially larger than the Arab population after independence and the Jewish/Arab ratio will remain heavily tilted in favor of the Jews even with the higher Arab birth rate.

Agreed with all of this.

Thus, could we see a more belligerent position on the part of the Israeli government earlier on? After all, this TL's Israel will be even more in need of additional living space and whatnot.

Also, could we see a more Ashkenazi-dominated culture in Israel in this TL?

Politically, the greater survival of European Jewry means that the pressure on the early government to pass the laws allowing ultra-Orthodox to avoid national service is not there, and the blanket "go to full time religious study and get an automatic exemption" that led to ALL ultra-Orthodox males ending up deferred unless they chose otherwise won't happen. The reason this happened OTL was that there was a desire to preserve the Jewish theological scholarship that had been decimated by the Holocaust. You might also see the minimum threshold for representation in the Knesset higher,which reduces the power of the splinter parties since almost every government post independence was a coalition government handing out "deals".

Agreed with all of this.

In turn, this could result in much faster assimilation of the Ultra-Orthodox Jews into Israeli society as well as in a lower total fertility rate for Israel.

Plus, the higher threshold for Knesset representation might make Israeli politics more efficient and less susceptible to political blackmail.

With a larger Aliyah, you may see a stronger role for Yiddish in Israel, perhaps recognition as a second language.

Agreed.

OTL many of the Jews of Eastern Europe went to Israel via DP camps. Here you'll have more who will be in countries that have communist governments in 1947-48. Will the USSR and other communist countries allow the Jews to emigrate, even at this point in time when the USSR et al were positive on the establishment of Israel (the idea being that an Israel created by the west would be a permanent irritant to the Arabs who would turn against the west and towards the USSR).

Honestly, I don't think that Soviet emigration policy would be much different from our TL. In other words, Soviet Jews (whom there will be much more of in this TL) would initially not be allowed to emigrate anywhere; however, as in our TL, this might change if Jewish refuseniks try hijacking a plane or two and thus result in large international sympathy for them--which in turn results in the Soviet Union allowing some of them to emigrate.

As for the surviving Polish Jews, a lot will depend on whether they end up on the Soviet or Western side of the Iron Curtain. After all, if the Schwarze Kapelle capitulates to Britain and France early enough, we could see the recreation of an independent, Western-aligned Poland (albeit without its pre-World War II eastern parts). If so, we could see most of the surviving Polish Jews immigrate to Israel immediately after the end of World War II in this TL.

Finally, in regards to the Soviet Jews, like in our TL, I expect most of the remaining Soviet Jews to emigrate--mostly to Israel, but also some to the U.S. and Germany--after the Soviet Union either collapses or liberalizes in this TL. In turn, given the tendency of Soviet Jews to vote for the right, we could see a stronger Israeli right-wing in the 1990s and beyond in this TL.

Also, if the c. 1990s aliyah in this TL will consist of, say, 3 million Jews rather than 1 million Jews (much more surviving Soviet Jews = a much larger aliyah), could we see Israel outright annex the West Bank in this TL in order to provide sufficient living space for these (ex-?)Soviet Jews? Any thoughts on this?
 
With a larger manpower pool the Israelis might do better in the 1948 War(s) of Independence, perhaps getting all of Jerusalem, part of the West Bank, the Golan, and maybe a part of Gaza or even bits of the Sinai.If these areas are taken in the 1948 conflicts they will be relatively empty, unlike OTL taken in 1967 when they had a much larger Arab population so this would provide additional space.To the extent of any other territorial changes following subsequent conflicts (and there are huge butterflies here, the big issue ITTL like OTL is how many Arabs will be in these territories. The problem with annexing territory, as opposed to occupation pending a peace treaty, is that the people in those territories then become citizens with voting rights and so forth. OTL the Golan was relatively empty, not so Gaza and the west bank.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
With a larger manpower pool the Israelis might do better in the 1948 War(s) of Independence, perhaps getting all of Jerusalem, part of the West Bank, the Golan, and maybe a part of Gaza or even bits of the Sinai.If these areas are taken in the 1948 conflicts they will be relatively empty, unlike OTL taken in 1967 when they had a much larger Arab population so this would provide additional space.To the extent of any other territorial changes following subsequent conflicts (and there are huge butterflies here, the big issue ITTL like OTL is how many Arabs will be in these territories. The problem with annexing territory, as opposed to occupation pending a peace treaty, is that the people in those territories then become citizens with voting rights and so forth. OTL the Golan was relatively empty, not so Gaza and the west bank.
Would this larger manpower pool be able to reach Israel and train in time, though? After all, they need to both reach Israel and become fully trained before they can actually fight.

Also, I am unsure that all of these territories would become relatively empty if Israel captured them in 1948-1949. After all, the West Bank is largely mountainous just like large parts of the Galilee area, and many Arabs still live in the Galilee even today.

In addition to this, Yes, more Arab citizens = more Arab voters. However, this will be at least somewhat compensated by Israel having a much larger Jewish population.
 
Playing devil's advocate: would Israel get as much international support (e.g. weapons from Czechoslovakia) in this situation?

I believe that sympathy was garnered because as people they were nearly wiped out, but in this case their losses would be only comparatively high.
If we have to do an arithmetics of suffering, they would have been far fewer in absolute terms than the Russians or the Poles (I'm assuming that non-Jewish Poles still die in similar OTL numbers).

What do you think?
 
This scenario implies that the British and French empires are overextended as in OTL and decolonialization will take place. Well then. A larger European infusion could mean greater plurality in politics as more Betarniks survive and make aliyah. With greater manpower, they almost certainly take Jerusalem and Hebron. They will not take the Sinai as the British would threaten them as in OTL with activiating the Anglio- Egyptian defense pact. Would something similar play out on the Golan , possibly. The exemption of the orthodox was based on the prevailing belief that religon and orthodoxy were being rendered obselete and would fade away. i suspect Ben Gurion would make the same mistake again.
 
A smaller holocaust wouldn't necessarily result in a bigger Eastern-European Aliyah. IOTL basically all the Jews in Eastern Europe were refugees with nowhere else to go, which is why so many eventually settles in Palestine and after 1948 Israel. With a smaller holocaust that may not be the case. In addition, Zionism became so dominant among Jews after the holocaust in large part because all the other political and cultural institutions of Eastern European Jews were simply anhilated. A smaller holocaust would mean that institutions like the Bund are still active and strong, and actively opposing Zionism. It would most likely just lead to a bigger present-day Jewish community in Eastern Europe.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
A smaller holocaust wouldn't necessarily result in a bigger Eastern-European Aliyah. IOTL basically all the Jews in Eastern Europe were refugees with nowhere else to go, which is why so many eventually settles in Palestine and after 1948 Israel. With a smaller holocaust that may not be the case. In addition, Zionism became so dominant among Jews after the holocaust in large part because all the other political and cultural institutions of Eastern European Jews were simply anhilated. A smaller holocaust would mean that institutions like the Bund are still active and strong, and actively opposing Zionism. It would most likely just lead to a bigger present-day Jewish community in Eastern Europe.
The economic stagnation in Communist Eastern Europe as well as anti-Semitism (like in the Soviet Union) could cause many--if not most--Eastern European Jews to still want to emigrate in this TL, though.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Playing devil's advocate: would Israel get as much international support (e.g. weapons from Czechoslovakia) in this situation?

I believe that sympathy was garnered because as people they were nearly wiped out, but in this case their losses would be only comparatively high.
If we have to do an arithmetics of suffering, they would have been far fewer in absolute terms than the Russians or the Poles (I'm assuming that non-Jewish Poles still die in similar OTL numbers).

What do you think?
First of all, I am unsure that the death numbers for non-Jewish Poles are as high as they are claimed to be. Indeed, how did they calculate 3 million non-Jewish Polish deaths?

As for Russian deaths, if there's no Fall of France, there is no Operation Barbarossa and thus much less Russian deaths (even if the Soviet Union still eventually enters World War II).
 
The economic stagnation in Communist Eastern Europe as well as anti-Semitism (like in the Soviet Union) could cause many--if not most--Eastern European Jews to still want to emigrate in this TL, though.
Maybe, but IOTL almost all migrated in less than a decade, and they did so because they were all refugees with no home homes to return to (most Olim to Israel from Europe at that time came straight from transit camps and refugee camps. they had nowhere else to go). A much smaller holocaust means a lot fewer Jewish refugees, and with most of the pre-war Jewish institutions and politics still standing firmly (simply because most of their members survived) means a weaker Zionism and therefore less desire to migrate (at least to Palestine\Israel).
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Maybe, but IOTL almost all migrated in less than a decade, and they did so because they were all refugees with no home homes to return to (most Olim to Israel from Europe at that time came straight from transit camps and refugee camps. they had nowhere else to go). A much smaller holocaust means a lot fewer Jewish refugees, and with most of the pre-war Jewish institutions and politics still standing firmly (simply because most of their members survived) means a weaker Zionism and therefore less desire to migrate (at least to Palestine\Israel).
You could be correct that a large part of these Jews will initially decide to remain in Eastern Europe. However, like Soviet Jews in our TL, these Jews will probably emigrate en masse (mostly to Israel and the U.S.) after the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe; indeed, decades of Communist anti-Semitism along with the economic prosperity of the U.S. and Israel should be a sufficient motivator for these Jews to emigrate at that point in time.
 
A smaller holocaust wouldn't necessarily result in a bigger Eastern-European Aliyah. IOTL basically all the Jews in Eastern Europe were refugees with nowhere else to go, which is why so many eventually settles in Palestine and after 1948 Israel. With a smaller holocaust that may not be the case. In addition, Zionism became so dominant among Jews after the holocaust in large part because all the other political and cultural institutions of Eastern European Jews were simply anhilated. A smaller holocaust would mean that institutions like the Bund are still active and strong, and actively opposing Zionism. It would most likely just lead to a bigger present-day Jewish community in Eastern Europe.
It might even lead to a radicalization of Yiddishism amongst the Ashkenazi rather than the triumph of Zionism.

There's also the fact that a smaller Holocaust leaves the Sephardim and Romaniote Jewish populations in Greece pretty much untouched.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, as for the Eastern European Jewish institutions, they might very well be largely destroyed in countries such as Poland if the USSR still enters WWII and "liberates" these countries from Nazi German occupation.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
First of all, I am unsure that the death numbers for non-Jewish Poles are as high as they are claimed to be. Indeed, how did they calculate 3 million non-Jewish Polish deaths?
Census numbers. How do you think they calculated 6 million Jewish deaths?
 
Ashkenani migration would depend in part on prior dislocations. If the Nazis managed to segregate the Jews into the ghettos as in OTL and the locals resented the survivors return as in OTL ( a la Jebadyne massacre (sp) ), one can certainly expect a larger migration to Israel unless the immigration policies of most of the world changes drastically from their pre 1936 " none is too many" approach.
 
Without as large of extermination of European Jewry, I imagine if the war plays out as it did, the majority would still not want to return to their homes in the East. The map below is from 1900, but it shows more or less where the bulk of European Jewry lived until the 1930s. After the war, many survivors faced discrimination at the hands of the locals making return difficult, while others found their homes had been occupied by locals. Like the ethnic Germans in Eastern Europe, they would probably join the westward movement of refugees in Europe. There had already been significant discrimination against Jews in Poland, Hungary and Romania prior to the war, and Jewish emigration would have been significant had their been countries willing to accept them.

Even a limited Holocaust would make many wary of returning so the question is where do they head? The United States, Argentina and the British Dominions might be able to take in around half a million, but there was a lot of pressure among Jewish refugees from other Jews to head to what was still the British Mandate of Palestine. From accounts I have read there was a sort of shame associated with not choosing what would become Israel as the destination as this strengthened the appeal if not need for Zionism. Even without death camps on a large scale, I imagine the push towards Israel as a destination would be just as strong. Hasidic Groups like the Satmar whom reject "secular" Zionism for religious reasons would probably still be drawn to the United States as IOTL, but the U.S. only opened doors to a few immigrants. The British government limited Jewish immigration to a rate of 1,500 per month, but during 1945-1948 the numbers of Jewish refugees making their way to Mediterranean ports grew and as a result some thousands or so Jews managed to arrive.

In the occupation sectors, the American camps imposed no restrictions allowing Zionism to flourish and French and Italian officials turned a blind eye to the movement. The British attempted to restrict the movement, but the numbers of illegal immigrants increased. I can only imagine how they would deal with a larger movement. Between 1945 and 1951 some 450,000 Jews from Europe settled in Israel.




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